Averaging Dice Rolls? [Archive] - Wizards Community

Post/Author/DateTimePost
Rebel581

06-10-07, 09:24 PM
How do you guys average dice rolls? It can't be as simple as diving it in half because I heard a topic and someone said that +1d6 averaged to 3.5 damage.
fiendish_platypus

06-10-07, 09:26 PM
It's usually half plus one for the first roll, then half, for the second, so ultimately 3.5 would be right for a d6 (4, 3, 4, 3, 4, etc.)
Rebel581

06-10-07, 09:33 PM
For finding the average damage per round, say I have a fighter using a masterwork greatsword at level 5 against an AC of 20. With a STR of +4, it would be a +10 to attack. So he'd hit 50% of the time. Each time he hits (according to what you just told me), he'd be doing 13 damage. Would he be doing 6.5 damage per round?
DarkNick

06-10-07, 09:41 PM
Did anyone understand what fiendish_platypus was saying? I have no idea.

One way to work out the average is to add up all the possibilities then divide this by the number of possibilities. This is called the 'mean'.

i.e. for a d6 you can roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 all with equal chance. To get the average you add up all these numbers then divide by 6 = 3.5.

An easy formula to find the average for dice is to take the top number, add 1 then divide by 2. e.g. for a d6 this is (6+1)/2=3.5

For a greatsword the average damage is 7 (3.5 + 3.5 because there are two d6's) + the guys strength (+6) so you are correct the average damage per hit is 13.
If the probability of hitting per round is only 50% or 0.5 then your average damage per round is 6.5 (or 13 x 0.5)

Incidently the chance of hitting AT20 with an attack bonus of +10 is more than 50%. You would hit on a 10,11,12,13 etc.. count all the numbers that score a hit and you will find that you hit 11 times out of 20. That's 55%
Average damage per round would be 13x0.55=7.15
Edymnion

06-10-07, 09:41 PM
How do you guys average dice rolls? It can't be as simple as diving it in half because I heard a topic and someone said that +1d6 averaged to 3.5 damage.Same way you take any other average.
Add up all of the values, and divide by the number of values.

For 1d6, thats (1+2+3+4+5+6)/6 = 3.5
Solaris

06-10-07, 09:45 PM
With +10 to hit, he'd hit AC 20 on a roll of 10 or higher, which gives a hit probability of 11/20 (slightly better than 50%). If a greatsword does 2d6 damage, its average damage is 7. The character will therefore average 11/20 * 7, or 77/20, or 3.85 points of damage per round.

This does not account for criticals.
Rebel581

06-10-07, 09:50 PM
With +10 to hit, he'd hit AC 20 on a roll of 10 or higher, which gives a hit probability of 11/20 (slightly better than 50%). If a greatsword does 2d6 damage, its average damage is 7. The character will therefore average 11/20 * 7, or 77/20, or 3.85 points of damage per round.

This does not account for criticals.

Plus the +6 damage he'd get for strength and a two-handed weapon.

I got it now, thanks.

I can't believe I didn't think to just add up the numbers and divide them. I just assumed that would come out to be 3 -_-'
Solaris

06-10-07, 10:01 PM
Plus the +6 damage he'd get for strength and a two-handed weapon.
Oops, sorry.

With the +6 to damage, it would come to 11/20 * 13, or 143/20, or 7.15 points of damage per round.
Solaris

06-10-07, 10:02 PM
Oh, and DarkNick already beat me to it anyway :tiphat:
StormKnight

06-11-07, 04:05 PM
For quicker calcualations, the average of any die (or any other set of integers from X to Y in steps of 1) is:
(Lowest number + highest number) / 2

So, the average of a D12 = (1+12)/2 = 6.5
Kouk

06-12-07, 05:13 AM
I believe fiendish platypus was explaining averages like for finding average HP.

If you take average hit points as an option, and your class gives you a d6 HD, first level you would get 3, second level you would get 4, third level you would get 3, fourth level you would get 4 again, etc. so eventually it would "average" out while still allowing you to gain whole numbers of hit points.