Post/Author/DateTime	Post
wargod22 09-17-07, 03:10 PM	I was thinking about Aundair starting a war to try and give itself a decisive advantage on the continent. Though really it is the Dreaming Darks manipulation that is helping to drive Aundair towards what will be a disastrous war (thanks in large part to those all so troublesome adventurers), and then the Dreaming Dark will further manipulate Aundair so that they will ask Reidra for military help…and so give the Dreaming Dark a firm foothold on the continent to spread their influence. So I was trying to think of a way that Aundair could conceivably stand a good chance of winning a war and achieving its aims, and I would appreciate it if people could comment and see if any of this makes sense, where there are problems, or if these are just insane ramblings of a madman. One of Aundair’s biggest problems is that they can easily get stuck in a multi-front. If they try to go for the Eldeen Reaches they leave their back open for Thrane to attack, if they go for Thaliost they leave themselves open to attack from Breland or Karrnath and further raids from various groups in the Reaches. Also a dragged out war would not be to the benefit of Aundair. They have a smaller population in comparison to the other Five Nations, and arcane casters take a long time to properly train and if killed are difficult to replace. It would seem to me that Aundair’s best hope is for a short victorious war that will result in a quick victory over the Eldeen Reaches/Thrane where they can grab up what they want and then sue for peace. All before Karrnath and Breland can really enter the fray. Idealy, if Aurala could capture the Eldeen Reaches, or at least the breadbasket portions (and maybe some good timber areas to the side) where most of the population of the Reaches are, along with getting Thaliost back, Aundair would be in a good position, Aurala would be able to dispel the major complaints against her rule, and Aundair would be able to restore their national pride to a good point. Alliances: Naturally Aundair can’t afford to fight all of its neighbors by itself, so I would think it would be very much in Aundair’s advantage to make some alliances. Valenar seems like a very good pick. They already have good relations with Valenar considering Aundair is one of the first nations to recognize Valenar. Additionally Aundair can sell it as an uphill (and guaranteed) battle, something that I would think appeal to the Valenar. It would be ideal if Aundair could magically teleport (or use some other form of transportation) to get a sizable number of Valenar into Aundair without anyone catching onto what they are planning on doing. While such an alliance would have some dangers to it, it can be workable. The other set of alliances I have considered are the ones that could possibly keep Breland tied down, at least long enough for Aundair to finish up its war. It would be a great distraction for Aundair if they could get one or more of the rogue tribes in Darguun to attack Breland, or at raid it to the point that Breland has to tie down forces and attention to deal with the problem. Additionally approaching the Daughter of Sora Kell for an alliance could be a possibility. Monster from Droaam are already raiding into Breland, so an upswing of raids would keep Breland from dealing with issues on its northern border. Aurala can promice to help Droaam to get recognized a under the Treaty of Thronhold in exchange for their help. Also Aurala can keep supporting the Swords of Liberty to keep up the violent and revolutionary acts. None of these things have to swell into a full scale war, it just has to be enough so that they are each holding down a leg of the bear to keep it from poking its head into Aundair’s war. Aurala could also hire some of the pirate Princes of the Lhaazar Principality as privateers to attack Karrnath, Breland, Thrane, and the Elden Reaches to keep them all busy and distracted (and not like the chance at getting some loot wouldn’t appeal to pirates). Starting the War: Natually Aurala will not want to look like a blatant aggressor, but will want just cause to go to war. Against the Eldeen Reaches she could justify a war because of the raids have been crossing their border for years. But too really make the threat seems real Aundair could infiltrate a druid sect of the Ashborn, and have them nearly succeed in attacking Arcanix, but get stopped in the end. Declaring that the druids of the Eldeen Reaches are a threat that Aundair can no longer tolerate she declares war against the Reaches, and begins her invasion. With Thrane the best way to me to start the war is for Aundair to have the violence in Thaliost finally boil over with a full scale rebellion. Aundair can promise to rebels in Thaliost that Aundair is finally ready and able to take back Thaloist, and that it is ok for them to put into effect a long planned revolt against Thranish rule. Also Aundair can send the Royal Eyes in to help train the rebels, and help in spreading chaos throughout Thaliost. Aundair says that Thrane can no longer protect who they consider to be Aundairians. So Aundair says that it will take back Thaliost and finally bring order to Thaliost and stop the religious persecutions going on there, and so declares war on Aundair. Conducting the War: The major problem with trying to take over the Eldeen Reaches is that any operation can easily degenerate into a guerilla war. I was thinking that Aundair could end up supporting the various bandits groups in the Reaches, such as Baron Sutger (FoW), and help them to organize as a significant force. Aurala could promise Baron Sutger a barony within the Reaches as payment for his support in taking over the Reaches. Such bandit organizations would be able to negate the Eldeen Reaches inherit advantage of knowledge of the local territory, which is essential to a successful guerilla war. Aurala can use the bandits as guides, scouts, and anti-guerilla forces. Additionally her alliance with the Valenar can also help to eliminate the Reaches advantage in guerilla warfare. The Valenar live to fight a fast, hit and run campaign. I would imagine a bunch of Valenar squads made up 4-8 level NPCs would do quite well against low level druids and rangers that make up the backbone of the Reaches strike forces. So with the Eldeen Reaches main advantage negated, it would be much more possible for Aundair’s more conventional forces to be able to capture and hold onto captured territory in the Reaches. It would also be great if they could somehow get Oalian assassinated considering he is the one who is holding the various druidic organizations together as well as whole country together. A splintered resistance would be much easier to take care of. I’m not exactly sure how I could carry about killing off Oalian, so any advice would be great. Now I have not quite though of how Aundair can deal with Thrane. A rebellion in Thaliost could make it much easier to regain Thaliost. It would be especially effective if you have in the preparations properly trained rebels to fight in Thaliost, and have Valenar stationed in the area to conduct sneak attacks, disrupt lines of communications, destroy supplies, and prevent effective troop movements within Thaliost. I have also considered that Aundair may have come up with some kind of magic attack that could make the re-conquest of Thaliost much easier. But the problem is that even a clear victory in Thaliost is not likely to eliminate Thrane’s war making capabilities, and I would doubt the loss of Thaliost would demorialize them to the point that they would seek peace. I have not come up with a way that Aundair could convince Thrane to sign a peace treaty that is favorable to Aundair yet. So I would appreciate any advice anyone could give. So that all I have planned out so far. Any advice or comments would be greatly appreciated.
Drag0nUL 09-17-07, 04:45 PM	There are 2 immediate potential targets for Aundair in a war: the Eldeen Reaches and Thrane. Eldeen Reaches pros: It is the least likely to bring about foreign intervention. Most nations would probably see it as Aundair sorting stuff in their back yard, and Karrnath and Breland could see it as a pretext to do the same in Mror Holds and Droaam respectively at a later date. Might be a quick victory, at least initially. I believe that if Aundair was to bring it's military might to bear they could quickly overcome any resistance in the territories between the border and the Towering Wood. Eldeen Reaches cons: It might end up pinning down a significant number of resources in guerilla fighting (think of Napoleon's Spanish campaign). It leaves Aundair with a huge opening at their back. In the unlikely event that Thrane does invade, the flamers will reach Fairhaven and Passage before the bulk of the Aundairian army can even begin to redeply. Thrane pros: Would score a great morale boost if they win. Most of Thrane is open field, and thranish forces rely on levy infantry and heavy cavalry, neither of which are very mobile. Assume they manage a surprise attack and/or breach the border defenses quickly enough, the aundairians could exploit their superior mobility and wreak havoc all over the countryside. I am thinking mostly of employing the Knights Phantom as a shock force operating far beyond the rest of the army, in a way similar to what the German armored divisions did in the invasion of France. Although not very numerous, some well timed strikes in strategical points should spread enough panic and paralyze tranish movements long enough for the bulk of the army to press on the advantage. Eldeen Reaches are not a very expansionist nation, so an attack in the rear is very unlikely. And even if they wanted too attack, I don't think they could mount a large enough force to actually pose a threat. Thrane cons: It will most likely trigger foreign intervention in the war. Breland cannot afford to see any of it's neighbors increase in power. A war between Thrane and Aundair would greatly strengthen the winner. And Karrnath would probably want a piece of the action too (Talihost is a very tempting target, offering a great base for future operations against both Thrane and Aundair). A loss here would probably spell the end of Aundair as a nation. Still, I think Thrane is the way to go, assuming you can 'convince' the rest of the nations to stay neutral. This is not impossible, especially with the Dreamnig Dark involved. One of Breland's greatest strengths (King Boranel) is also a major weakness. If Boranel died, probably the country would plunge in chaos for a while, while both royalists and republicans struggle for power. So, disposing of Boranel could buy Aundair the necessary time to move against Thrane. Paying a few goblin tribes to raid eastern Breland might help too. So all that remains is tying up Karrnath. A massed Valenar invasion would do it, but I find it hard to believe the elves would commit all their forces to an offensive war. As I see it, they want to draw the enemy into Valenar, so that they could fight in familiar terrain. A better option might be offering Karrnath a piece of the cake (conceeding some territory in southern and eastern Thrane in exchange for neutrality and/or military help).
Yakman 09-17-07, 08:59 PM	Your question presupposes that Aundair's objectives call for the complete destruction/absorption of one of it's neighbors. Personally, I think that's unlikely. Aundair's immediate objectives in a war would be limited to: a) the capture of Thaliost b) controlling the wynarn river valley with their superior mobility, they could likely accomplish either objective. Thaliost itself would likely be a tough nut to crack, and it might tie up enough of the Aundairan army that Thrane's counter-offensive into Aundair's heartlands would force a lifting of the siege. The eldeen reaches is a far easier target, and less likely to provoke an international response, but then again, there's not much benefit for aundair in seizing the relevant territories: there's not a lot of people there, and aundairan economic interests likely predominate anyway. that being said, it would be pretty cool to have an epic siege of Thaliost.
Revvecor 09-17-07, 10:39 PM	It would seem to me that Aundair’s best hope is for a short victorious war that will result in a quick victory over the Eldeen Reaches/Thrane where they can grab up what they want and then sue for peace. All before Karrnath and Breland can really enter the fray. Idealy, if Aurala could capture the Eldeen Reaches, or at least the breadbasket portions (and maybe some good timber areas to the side) where most of the population of the Reaches are, along with getting Thaliost back, Aundair would be in a good position, Aurala would be able to dispel the major complaints against her rule, and Aundair would be able to restore their national pride to a good point. As the FoW pointed out Karrnath has the largest military, and if it gained an advantage over any other major nation it would become the most powerful nation of the continent. The reason I point this out is that if Aundair takes control of large enough parts of Thrane to divert a large percentage of its forces to fight back, Karrnath can just sweep in from the north and takeover most of the rest of Thrane. As Karrnath sweep through it would be very tactically sound for them to raise the dead they left in their wake. This would slow down Thrane's counterattack. Additionally approaching the Daughter of Sora Kell for an alliance could be a possibility. Monster from Droaam are already raiding into Breland, so an upswing of raids would keep Breland from dealing with issues on its northern border.Aurala can promice to help Droaam to get recognized a under the Treaty of Thronhold in exchange for their help. The Daughter of Sora Kell only rule their nation because no other power group has anywhere near enough force to contest the sister control. If Droaam were recognized as a nation then other nations and dragonmarked houses could help the varies different monstrous creatures within the nation setup an economically viable social structure. This would intern destabilize the social structure setup by the sisters. So that all I have planned out so far. Any advice or comments would be greatly appreciated. Aundair would most likely have the advantage initially no matter who they attacked first, given their magic supremacy. Their main problem is they have no real lasting power. Personally, I see Karrnath winning any war started by a different nation in the long run. They have more soldiers; that are better equipped, better trained, and will be raised as undead to fight again when they die.
jamvid 09-17-07, 10:56 PM	Maybe Valenar aren't such a good idea, you know what happened to the last country to use Valenar mercenaries? :P But really, I believe the eldeen reaches would turn guerrilla before the army starts marching. It would be very drawn out, and a hard success that would not only probably not be complete. the best way, I agree would be decentralizing the power structure by taking out Oalian or keeping him from contact with the majority,causing druid wars, but it seems unlikely that Aundair would be able to destroy such a high-level druid. This war lends itself very easily to guerrilla conflicts, with shifters and druid and rangers being able to greatly make use of terrain and local knowledge to greatly damage Aundairian forces. this would probably further cut away cultural bonds between the Aundarians and the Reachies, making the Eldeen people fight all the harder for independence and the Aundarians less and less enthusiastic with having them rejoin Aundair, and more willing for revenge. this would cause more violent acts against the people of Eldeen, adding fuel to the fire of resistance. Thaliost, I believe, would be a much easier target, if handled correctly. I don't think Aundarians need to invest full military resources on a region mostly made out of ethnic Aundarians, which (I assume) would be willing to rejoin with their father country. All Aundair needs to focus on is spreading dissent against Thrane. Thrane doing something against the Thalians would help immensely with this effort. Dissent would soon turn to revolt. Although Aundair couldn't use it's military directly without getting flanked by everyone, It could give supplies, materials, support, and possibly small strike teams of wizards/warmages/spies/what have you to the rebels. now, for this war, degeneration into guerrilla combat is exactly what Aundair wants, because this is simply a waiting game for the time when keeping Thaliost becomes more expensive or dangerous to Thrane than simply ending the bloodshed. Treaties would be signed and Thalians would, probably try to join with Aundair, their old rich friend that can help restructuring. one problem with this plan, however, is the possibility that Thalians would not want to regain status as part of Aundair, but try to become their own state. I honestly don't think this is that big of a dilemma, because, after a war with Thrane, Thaliost will have suffered heavy losses, and will need help from some outside power. While this might be an opportunity for Karnnath to step in, I believe the natives of Thaliost will be more willing to take support from Aundair. From that point on, it's Aundair's region to lose, and if they went this far, they should be working to reintegrate the Thalians. Also if Aundair is trying to take over all of Thrane, a highly improbable task, their best bet would be to use a revolt in Thaliost to draw the slow moving Thranish army away from Flamekeep. they would then march as quickly as possible into the capital, and try to take the keeper of the flame out of power.. to avoid outside conflict is a tougher chore. I agree that, while the Eldeen border could get fuzzy, their would be no invasions, and that manipulating the monstrous nations stretches Brelands military to the point where it is unfeasible to try to take parts of Thrane or Aundair. Karnnath, while dangerous, doesn't seem to be, to me, that big of a problem to Aundair, because of the large hassel that would be simply getting the troops across or over scions sound. If memory serves the sea above both nations (except around Stormhome) is hard to navigate and stormy, and with steep cliff within Scion's sound make it hard to pass, so the safest way across are airships, which don't seem well-suited for mass troop transport. although hard, Karnnath could come if they wanted it bad enough, and Aundair has no definite fall-back plan to stop them. there is the possibility of a treaty or pact, but, as I understand it, Karnnath and Aundair hate each other, so making nice out of war-time hate is a hard process, with objections from both sides. Lastly, as a downside to taking on all of Thrane: the government are also a faith's holy people, so it would have to be dealt with delicately, without disrupting religion or culture. so, while difficult, most of these options could be pulled of, but it would require planning and deep manipulation.
Drag0nUL 09-18-07, 04:47 AM	Most people tend to suggest an attack of Talihost as one of the opening moves in the war. If you look on the map you would see that the seizing of Talihost is highly unfeasible before inflicting a serious defeat upon Thrane. If I was the Thranish commander and saw the bulk of Aundair's army marching of Talihost, I would see 2 possible courses of action: 1. Strike across the Aundair river in the area east of Starpeaks. such a maneuver would cut the supply line of the enemy, and have them caught between a hostile army and a hostile fortress. 2. Go directly for the throat of Aundair and strike across the plains directly into Fairheaven. Chances are it would fall before the main army can be pulled back from Talihost region. And even if it didn't, I succeeded in lifting the siege of Talihost and scored a pretty good morale victory. I don't think any Aundairian commander would make such a mistake.
DyloniusFunk 09-18-07, 01:56 PM	The Daughter of Sora Kell only rule their nation because no other power group has anywhere near enough force to contest the sister control. If Droaam were recognized as a nation then other nations and dragonmarked houses could help the varies different monstrous creatures within the nation setup an economically viable social structure. This would intern destabilize the social structure setup by the sisters. One of the sidebars in FOW talks about how the Daughters knew the petition would fail and that they wanted it to fail, so that they could use it as propaganda to cement thier control and show that the common races had no intention fo treating "monsters" as equals.They knew that no other challenger could be a threat without help. By doing this they ensured that no Droamite would be able to aquire outside aid and if they did no other Droamite would support them
Need_A_Life 09-19-07, 11:35 AM	Though I am myself a fan of Monty Python, I find it inappropiate to mock such an excellent piece of writing by quoting them. Bravo!
wargod22 09-20-07, 08:13 PM	It would seem that Aundair is in trouble no matter which target it picks (but then again I planned on things turning sour for Aundair anyways). Aundair seems like it will most likely be stuck in a two (or even four) front war. At best Aundair is stuck with a guerilla war or fighting a nation with a significant military capability in Thrane. Aundair’s best bet seems to be to have a quick war where they can achieve their objectives and then seek to end the war. But that seems unlikely given the circumstances. The Reaches can in all likelihood just drag things out with hit and run tactics, and just try and not to lose. The only real way to make things easier is for Aundair to invest in anti-guerilla warfare units, and maybe back some of the bandits in the area to try and negate the Reaches home field advantage. Also before an invasion it might be possible to help stir up unrest among the druids through intelligence operations. An assassination of Oalian seems like a difficult. Unless something unexpected happens, such as the Dreaming Dark or Lords of Dust infiltrate a sect of the Children of Winter, who then proceed to give Oalian an incurable disease that will slowly kill him. Thus leaving the Reaches in political chaos. It seems unlikely that Aundair could quickly hurt Thrane to the point that they would sue for peace. Thrane could probably quite likely just go on the defensive and wait out a siege while Thrane proper continues to supply and reinforce them through the cities port. Even a quick capture of Thaliost would unlikely hurt Thrane enough to get the job done, and it would seem unlikely that Thrane would let Aundair have the last word about an attack on Thaliost. Even an attacks Thrane directly Thrane would probably just go on the defensive, and wait as they muster up their knights and peasant levy’s. And any ravishing of the countryside is only that much more likely to shore up Thrane’s resolve to continue the war at least in the beginning. The ideas of alliances with Droaam and Valenar do not really seem to hold water. Droaam is just not looking for an alliance, and having a large Valenar force on ones own territory is a risky proposition considering they would be unreliable. Though an interesting and unexpected scenario would be for in the event of Oalian dying suddenly and for chaos to spread throughout the Reaches. Aundair of course invades and meticulously defeats each faction in the Reaches in turn. But then Droaam “comes to the rescue” and “liberates” the Reaches from Aundair (who would by this point have to be dealing with its other neighbors who are exploiting Aundair’s weakness). Droaam offers an “alliance” to the Reaches (and perhaps the Shadow Marches also) in a mutual defense pact against foreign aggression from the eastern nations of Khorvaire. The Droaamites bring order and stability, crushes the more radical druidic sects and defeats the bandits plaguing the Reaches. Though the Reaches would under a monstrous iron fist, they finally have safety and security both from internal and external threats. Not a likely scenario, but hey, its Eberron and anything could happen. Karrnath could definitely be a winner of any conflict that Aundair starts. King Kaius seems smart enough to know when and where to strike when the opportunity presents itself. He also seems to be aware that the reuniting of Khorvair is unlikely, so he would be unlikely to overstretch his forces and would try and call it quits once he has won all he could. Though he would still have a rough job reigning in his warlords.
Ogiwan 09-25-07, 11:42 PM	I agree that Aundair would want a limited war; frankly, I think that is the only type of war Khorvaire would tolerate. Furthermore, Aurala would use her political savvy to make it out that Aundair has been attacked first, or Aundair is threatened. That might keep Breland out of the war; if Thrane is framed, Karrnath will sit there and cheer the Aundarians on as they go a-Flame stomping. What advancements could the Arcane Congress come up with that could even the scales? Damn it, i left my big map at home. Ok, Forges of War and Five Nations time. Actually, the Aundarian flank is somewhat secure for a drive on Thaliost; the Starpeaks, Trumpet Mountain, and the Silver Wood make a Thrane drive north to cut off supply lines hard; there simply isn't much maneuver room. Frankly, if the Aundarians can complete a castle to the west of Trumpet Mountain, northwestern Aundair is secure. The Daskaran-Thaliost road is the major east-west road in the Thaliost penninsula, and it can be cut as it crosses the Aundair river. That leaves the Aundarians as the sole side with an Orien road, the Askelios-Kerkulin-Thaliost road. The extended Aundarian western flank, that same stretch that Thrane attacked so much, is still a problem. However, an Aundarian naval force might be able to not only control the channel that leads to the waters around Thronehold, but also might be able to menace and raid around Flamekeep, thus keeping troops pinned down for defense. Thaliost itself may be more of a problem. Because of the angular configuration of the walls (very similar to a Vauban-style fortress, but without any of the defensive depth), there are very few approaches that won't result in a horrible rake along the flanks of any attacking force. The Northern and Eastern gates may be the most approachable, along with the southern wall (it just goes straight). It would be easier if there was an active resistance in Thaliost; considering the gov of Thaliost is described as a people-burning maniac, that might not be too hard. So, if: 1.) Thrane is isolated politically 2.) The route to the east of Trumpet Mountain is secured 3.) That long western border with Thrane is defended as it was in the Last War 4.) Scions Sound is controlled, to deny resupply across the channel to the Thaliost penninsula and to menace Flamekeep Then Thrane would be in a rough position. Again, canny diplomacy can keep Thrane isolated, and prevent Breland or Karrnath from joining in on the fun. Concerning the Eldeen Reaches, whoever suggested employing the local bandits to counterguerilla, I think, has it right. If you turn it into a civil war, then Aundair wins 'cause they have friends in the area. Without support in the Eldeen, then Aundair loses people in a tree meatgrinder. Edit: Actually, thinking over something my friend said last night, Thaliost itself could be the casus belli for war. The situation that springs to mind is something akin to this: Thaliost citizens, who are Aundarian by decent, stage a peaceful protest for some reason. The Royal Eyes, of course, have an agent in the area, and he either disguises himself as a Thrane soldier and hits the commander with a Suggestion of, "These rabble need to be put down", or alternativly, the Arcane Congress comes up with a varient of Calm Emotions that makes the CO angry, thus unleashing his soldiers to brutally put down the demonstration. Aundair points to this incident, and states that since the people of Thaliost are Aundarian citizens, and Thrane is quite obviously mistreating them, control should be returned to Aundair. Aundarian forces could be moved up to the border, and all it takes is a border incident (again, Suggestion?), and then Aundair has the reason to launch war. All Queen Aurala has to do is keep saying that the goal of the war is to liberate Thaliost; to this end, no incursions along that long east border with Thrane, and only a naval presence in Scions Sound; the mere presence of the fleet there is threat enough to Flamekeep.