Post/Author/DateTime	Post
Diamond Starfire 09-27-04, 06:08 PM	I feel whenever there is a game that is based on random elements, i.e. the dice rolling, that there will always be an element of luck involved. It can go to the extreme in some cases, however. A person I know once said that no matter what the dice roll, you will come out on top with the right strategy. Do you agree? Personally I don't, because I've seen the dice roll very poorly in streaks of rolls. For example, in one game I only needed to roll a 5 or higher three times to succeed. So what happened? I rolled a 3, 4, and then a 1. I was trying to climb down a cliff to get into a better position to shoot my crossbow at a dragon and had a pretty high climb bonus against the DC. I ended up falling more than a hundred feet down. So much for strategy.
kasthevampire 09-27-04, 07:00 PM	"there is no such thing as luck there is only the force" lol jk i have bad luck rollin the dice somehow my friend always got critcials hmm.
LukiLoki 09-27-04, 08:20 PM	I think the point is, a good strategy can ameliorate the effects of bad luck. Probability tells us that, over time, any truly random process will approach the mean. That is that good luck will balance out with bad luck given enough rolls of the dice. But since you can't control which it's going to be on a given set of dice rolls, it's best to have a strategy that can bail you out, even when you roll a 1.
obrysii 09-27-04, 09:05 PM	"there is no such thing as luck there is only the force" lol jk i have bad luck rollin the dice somehow my friend always got critcials hmm. but... the quote is... "In my experiance, there is no such thing as luck" - Obi-wan Kenobi.
ConradBland 09-27-04, 09:16 PM	I believe in luck. I believe my green d20 is much luckier than my blue one. I will never use the blue one myself. :dice: I am also superstitious :looloo:
White rabbit 09-27-04, 09:17 PM	My luck at dice is legendary among my group. I roll so craptacularly that I always, ALWAYS bring at least two "back-up" characters to the game with me. No matter how well you plan, the dice are always there to say, "No luck for you! Two weeks!"
Stormbright 09-27-04, 10:12 PM	Depends on the group and the DM. If the DM makes you roll for everything, then luck is definately part of it. However... 1) employ strategies that minimize dice rolling. 1a) take 10 when allowed 1b) role-play a situation rather than "I use my diplomacy" 1c) take actions that are not skill dependent 2) does the DM make any 1 an autofailure, or worse, a fumble (not just weapons, but even diplomacy or ride checks) If so, avoid your skills like the plague. 3) In situations where you are outmatched, luck does tend to favor the characters. 4) In situations where you are nearly guaranteed to win, luck will inevitably favor the enemy. Why you ask? No one jumps around victorious because a 20-20-20 rolls against the kobold, so no-one notices it, but if it's the BBEG, there's damn-near a celebration on the game table. Basically, this. LUCK is the perception of probability that happens all around you. You roll enough dice, everything will eventually happen. The circumstances surrounding the event determine whether it was luck (good or bad) or if it even gets noticed.
Pocket Ace Pretender 09-27-04, 11:12 PM	Of course there is luck. If you had climbed down the cliff with an 18, shot the dragon with a 20, and confirmed with another 18, you would have been much better off than you were when you fell for 10d6, right? (And it would be much different if you got only 12 damage as opposed to 57) However, the more games you play, by the very nature of luck, everything should even out eventually. Now, that doesn't help whoever fell 100 feet to the jagged rocks below, but sometime in the future when you need a critical and you need it immediately, you might be in luck. ;) Everyone in my group complains about their bad luck. Mine is ok, average even, so I don't let them whine too much.
Elendur 09-27-04, 11:18 PM	If by luck you mean "unknown forces that skew the laws of probablity", I'd say no, it doesn't exist. If you mean streaks of favorable or unfavorable outcomes from a random process, then yes, of course that happens. That's part of the fun of gaming. The goods runs aren't as meaningful if you haven't suffered through the bad ones.
was_fired 09-27-04, 11:29 PM	Even the best battle plans can be ruined by a series of bad rolls. If your uber plan comes down to you will win unless you roll ten ones in a row it's a great plan. However there is still that one in ten trillion two hundred and fourty million chance that you will fail.
LordArkan 09-27-04, 11:40 PM	I don't believe in luck, I believe in spite. Examples, from a modified d20 modern game set in the future: Party plans for a long time, puts together a nearly flawless plan that starts with taking down random guard before the alarm can be tripped. Result: 3. 1. 5. 2. 6. :embarrass Party member decides to randomly pick a fight with the police. Party has no choice but to assist once the laser beams start flying. Result: 20. 19. 15. 20. 18. :eek:
StoneTree 09-28-04, 01:43 AM	Sure, a good strategy can overcome almost any ammount of bad luck. The trick is to minimize the number of times a given die roll matters. Let's say you can choose between two character builds... one will get hit one time in five, and will die with two hits. One will get hit one time in two, and will die in four hits. Now, a simple statistical analasys will show that the first character will last, on average, 10 blows, and the second will last 8. But the second is still a superior character, because since he can take more hits, he can survive a run of "bad luck" more easilly that the first. A pair of terrible rolls can kill the first and not the second. Buff con over AC and number of attacks over bonuses to hit and you'll pull through more often than not.
The Man from Uncle 09-28-04, 06:13 AM	LordArkan - 'I don't believe in luck, I believe in spite.' Me too. I know from Dr Andrew Wisemans in the UK work that lucky people are those that are basically the most persistant (it took him years to basically conclude that the more you practice the luckier you get). But it really doesn't feel that way. I am not in any particular way superstitious, but its a rare day now that i boast to my enemy that i am going to defeat him before i actually do. All to often i give them the finger and then some bloody albino ape turns up and double crits me before i fumble, fail my dex check and get attacks of opportunity for both falling and getting up again. Ok it was only once an albino ape, but there were plenty of other apes too that took it upon themselves to pull a threat out the bag just when i thought vistory was in sight. Bloody apes.
Revelation 09-28-04, 07:15 AM	[QUOTE=Diamond Starfire] I've seen the dice roll very poorly in streaks of rolls. For example, in one game I only needed to roll a 5 or higher three times to succeed. So what happened? I rolled a 3, 4, and then a 1. I was trying to climb down a cliff to get into a better position to shoot my crossbow at a dragon and had a pretty high climb bonus against the DC. I ended up falling more than a hundred feet down.QUOTE] Dice rolls will always have a part to play so luck/unluck will be important. A good plan does help, but nothing can prevent a slew of bad rolls in combat for example. Yur example of climbing seems like one where you should have taken 10. It's an often overlooked rule that speeds up play and helps give a session not made up entirely of farcical failures, " I rolled a 1 on my spot check and walk into a tree" As an aside remember that a skill doesn't automatically succeed or fail on a 20 / 1. As a DM if there was some extreme bad luck dogging my party I would try to twist things to help them, not necessarily to let them win, but perhaps to let them get out alive. From the opposing point of view what do you do when the monster rolls badly? I've had a BBEG roll ATROCIOUSLY! the final end fight was turning into a slaughter in the partys favour, and was becoming too easy, a bit of judicious fixing made the fight tough once again. I'd summarise and say that now and then things need to be tweaked by the GM, if that's his style' to keep the game going.
Cyricist 09-28-04, 07:33 AM	I once played a 6th level Dwarven cleric of Moradin who had about 60 hits (63 I believe) and the party went up against some nasty hobgoblins. Now all these hobgoblins, except their leader (a Girallon.. yes the DM had a lively imagination, to say it nicely), had between 11 and 13 hits. For about ten rounds I kept missing my attack rolls: 4, 5, 7, 2, 11 (hit once but did just 2 damage), etc. and the hobgoblin missed me about half of the time, resulting in my character dying at the hands of a 2 HD creature. I deemed the D20 responsible to be a 'bad luck' die.
Quartermain 09-28-04, 07:32 PM	Who's the guy who said luck is probability taken personally?
FriendoftheDork 09-28-04, 08:52 PM	do I believe in luck? I don't know what that means. But I know that some persons are more likely to roll well than others. I almost get surprised when one of my players don't roll at least 15. A few days ago, I introuduced my sister to RISK. In 2 game turns, she won. She even rolled 3 sixes to times after another when attacking. She's just lucky, most of the time. I do believe in chance. And I have learned that counting on chance and odds to go in the favour of the likely is not always that likely after all. Still, I prefer a universe were God does not play dice. Where the skilled suceed and the unskilled fail. Most of the time. A universe that makes sense.
Kingside_Bishop 09-28-04, 09:01 PM	Funny story... Background: In my group, we get together for like three days, with three different DMs in the group, and we all DM for a day. So, I'm playing a bladesinger/spellsword. I'm rolling crap numbers. I think I rolled above 15 a few times, and that was for initiative. My friend (and fellow DM) is sitting next to me, and he thinks it's the funniest thing in the world, because he, a rogue/assassin, is consistently rolling critical hits. I have a belief in everything balancing out eventually, (even if it happens across the screen) so I tell him "That's alright, because this'll have to reverse eventually, and you're DMing tommorrow." He smiles and says, "Whatever..." The next day, I'm playing a half-frost giant War Cleric/Barbarian, with a Greatsword that deals 2d12 damage and a 26 strength -- and I critical against his BBEG three times in a row -- no exageration. "I told you so, dude." In answer, no, I don't believe in luck. The dice might jump from one side of the 10 to the other, but eventually it all evens out.
Elendur 09-28-04, 11:37 PM	Still, I prefer a universe were God does not play dice. Where the skilled suceed and the unskilled fail. Most of the time. A universe that makes sense.When you find that universe, would you drop me line and let me know how it is? Meanwhile I'll be rolling on this big d20 we call Earth. :)
Master Agnald 09-29-04, 12:32 AM	Do I believe in luck? Oh, yes, I've been screwed by it way too often... I'm pretty sure I've scored very few critical hits ever since I started playing... unless you count those pesky undead... I get crits against them often... too bad it has no effect. I also usually roll high only in initiative. In the last game I played, weren't my character a paladin (lvl5) with 18 STR I would have missed 75% of my attacks, because I kept rolling 4s and 7s and 6s and all kinds of one digit numbers (which were high enough to hit those foolish low AC monsters, mind you). The party monk seemed to be a pretty high-roller, almost never rolling under 10... except for initiative. I also once shot my elven bard character in the face with his own bow on a natural 1 (stupid DM house rules... how can anybody shoot self in the face, anyway?). Good thing my luck isn't as bad the group rogue's, who got two fumbles in less than 5 minutes... good thing that DM was kind enough to only have his weapon drop from his hand. I also never seem to be able to succeed in a FORT check against a ghoul's paralyze effect... no matter how high my saves are... I've also fumbled once, which caused that elven bard to stay paralyzed for 11 minutes...
Wil Harvey 09-29-04, 12:39 AM	Felix ille tamen corvo quoque rarior albo. "A lucky man is rarer than a white crow."
fatal error 09-29-04, 12:48 AM	Tip for those with bad luck, play a caster who plans on using mostly save vs something other than rolled damage spells; I.E. a cleric who divine metamagic + hold persons everything in sight. Also, I have terrible luck as a player, but as a DM I roll quite well. (and no thats not due to fudging)
paradoxmage 09-29-04, 04:57 AM	Revelation: Yur example of climbing seems like one where you should have taken 10. It's an often overlooked rule that speeds up play and helps give a session not made up entirely of farcical failures, From his example he was fighting a dragon while climbing. He is being threatened/distracted he cannot take a 10. Unless he was a 10th level rogue and took ability skill mastery, then he could take a 10 while being threatened/distracted.
amethal 09-29-04, 09:49 AM	In my first ever game of MERP, my elf character climbed a tree to escape from some orcs. The roll was fumbled so badly he fell out of the tree and died. The plan was sound - party climbs tree to avoid orc patrol The character was an Elf scout whose climb was probably the best in the party The first time I was called on to roll some dice the character died Plan as much as you like, sometimes the dice will kill you.
eRaz0r 09-29-04, 03:38 PM	There's another quote : "No plan survives contact with the enemy" This isn't about luck though. It just means that, no matter how much planning you do, you cannot control all the circumstances. So even without bad luck your best-laid plan might fail. There is no such thing as a no-lose situation. So your friend is wrong, but not because of luck, but because there's no such thing as "the right strategy". When it comes to a game like DnD, there's always the possibility that you're going up against a foe you are incapable of defeating. No amount of luck or strategy will overcome an enemy who is immune to your party's damage output, and outlays enough to kill a character with each blow. The only strategy is to run away.
odhen 09-29-04, 05:44 PM	I have alot of dice, so if one is consistently rolling badly, it's time for a new die.