Facts
• WotC cancelled most of the upcoming book content: Sword and Spell, Heroic Tier, etc.
• WotC cancelled the monthly compilation in magazine format: each article will now be separate.
• The Research & Development department is now completely responsible for balancing all the content of articles.
My explanation
• WotC will instead publish all of the content from the cancelled books as separate D&DI online articles.
• Later, WotC will compile these articles as hardcover books, by theme.
Advantages of the new publication process
• WotC gives the best and newest content to D&DI online subscribers.
• D&DI becomes valuable.
• Online subscribers will use the content of the articles and detect if there is any need for further errata with regard to mechanics andor flavor.
• Once online players have fully vetted an online article, and it achieves a stable form, WotC will compile it along with articles having a similar theme as a hardcover book.
• The new hardcover books will be extremely high quality, with content and form that has undergone extensive scrutiny and playtesting for many months by many different kinds of D&D players.
• D&DI articles become the venue for new, fresh, and exciting content. Hardcover books become the venue for a stable, polished, and robust 'core'.
It is a brilliant strategy.
They should at least listen to the CharOp guys, 'cause those guys aren't going to lead you astray with enraged opinions. If the numbers are good, the numbers are good. If they're not, they're not. Running innovative class concepts through CharOp would be a great way to figure out what works and what doesn't from the technical standpoint (e.g., who would pick Avenger implement powers? Why doesn't an Avenger's oath of enmity scale like others' striker damages?).
So, on the whole, I like what you're saying, Haldrik. It sounds like a nice future. It's just so hard to believe it when there's so little else to go on.
Heres my theory for the new WotC business model.
Facts
• WotC cancelled most of the upcoming book content: Sword and Spell, Heroic Tier, etc.
• WotC cancelled the monthly compilation in magazine format: each article will now be separate.
• The Research & Development department is now completely responsible for balancing all the content of articles.
My explanation
• WotC will instead publish all of the content from the cancelled books as separate D&DI online articles.
• Later, WotC will compile these articles as hardcover books, by theme.
Advantages of the new publication process
• WotC gives the best and newest content to D&DI online subscribers.
• D&DI becomes valuable.
• Online subscribers will use the content of the articles and detect if there is any need for further errata with regard to mechanics andor flavor.
• Once online players have fully vetted an online article, and it achieves a stable form, WotC will compile it along with articles having a similar theme as a hardcover book.
• The new hardcover books will be extremely high quality, with content and form that has undergone extensive scrutiny and playtesting for many months by many different kinds of D&D players.
• D&DI articles become the venue for new, fresh, and exciting content. Hardcover books become the venue for a stable, polished, and robust 'core'.
It is a brilliant strategy.
Problem. What of submissions? What value would DDI be to the non-CB/Compendium customer? These are 2 things that instantly come to my mind, at least. This business strategy is sound in many ways yes, but they'd lose out on me as a potential customer because I can simply get the end result. I don't really care about the beginning as long as it's good in the end.
What of LFR? When does this stuff become LFR compatible?
What of content that doesn't fit the theme? Artificer content, Seeker content, Runepriest content? How does this all fit?
Many questions for just a theory, I suppose. But if this is infact their business model or close to it, all are necessary.
I don't think Essentials actually did that well. I LOVE the Essentials products. I HOPE they did do very well.
I don't mind them. There's a lot of good ideas. And really, I have enough regular Fighter, Rogue and whatnot that having a bizarro "classic" version or two doesn't bug me. Plus, Thieves, Slayers, and Executioners make great chargers. I suppose I hope too that Essentials went well, but I wouldn't want to see the format take over the design of future stuff. I want class and race feats, and I want classes that are their own. I don't mind this stuff being created side by side with the more traditional stuff, though.
Some translucent information from WotC might go a long way to dispelling this impression... but somehow I doubt WotC will ever bother to do something like come out and explicitly explain why they are making the decisions they have made, and what their long term plans for this brand are.
Translucent is probably as transparent as they'll be. I'd appreciate this too, but you're correct in saying that anecdotal evidence is not in favour of explication. Answers would be fantacular, but Wizards of the Coast isn't in the business of providing answers. They're in the business of selling their written word.
In any case, I think I am going to keep the word translucent unedited, because in this case, I don't even think translucency is something we can hope for. Right now, I don't even have much faith in WotC giving us an accurate (but vague) shape of the future. Black curtains are pretty much all we can expect. That, and the odd attempt by WotC to move our attention from what might be behind the curtain to its velvety texture. Lets just hope it doesn't turn out to be dyed rat fur.
I like your idea, and wish to subscribe to your podcast.
So far, you are looking at it.Problem. ...
... "What of submissions?"
• Submissions would continue as normal, except now the Devs themselves will fully proof it and make recommendations before publishing it.
"What value would DDI be to the non-CB/Compendium customer?"
• The non-online customer will wait for the hardcover version, and benefit from the quality of the final product.
"This business strategy is sound in many ways yes, but they'd lose out on me as a potential customer because I can simply get the end result. I don't really care about the beginning as long as it's good in the end."
• This sounds like a win-win situation. Most people are less patient than you. So you will benefit from the 'old and reliable' hardcover, while the online subscribers will benefit from 'shiny and new'. Of course many will want both online and hardcover formats. Note, the online subscribers collectively will also have more influence on the final form of the product, which may also interest you. If you dont subscribe online, but happen to hear about a specific article that you care about, nothing is stopping you from becoming a subscriber at that point. Perhaps you can even purchase each article individually.
"What of LFR? When does this stuff become LFR compatible?"
• No big deal. Living Forgotten Realms will simply create their own new criterion for determining what is 'legal'. In fact, since R&D themselves will process each article, I suspect LFR will simply declare all articles legal - except for Unearthed Arcana whose articles are explicitly experimental.
"What of content that doesn't fit the theme? Artificer content, Seeker content, Runepriest content? How does this all fit?"
• If there really is such thing as an article that has 'no' theme, I suppose they can publish a book whose theme is miscellaneous content. But really, Runepriest could show up in a Divine book alongside Cleric and Paladin builds, new Divine classes, new Divine options for non-Divine classes, fluff for spiritual traditions, divine feats, and so on. Similarly for any new class.
"Many questions for just a theory, I suppose. But if this is infact their business model or close to it, all are necessary."
• Its helpful to explore all angles.
I hope you're right. I expect you're not.
I don't mind if Wizards keeps us from being fully informed. What they have provided so far will keep me content. Pull out the popcorn, sit back and watch everyone freak out and worry.
I'm not particularly surprised by this, I think their strategy with the Essentials was too scattered to succeed--it seems to me that WotC wanted to bring in new, younger players, bring back lapsed players who stuck with 3.5/PF, and (with the red box) bring back players who haven't played since the 80's... Oh and get some sales out of existing 4E fans. That is way too much to expect out of any product.
Personally, I enjoyed 4E as it was, I had no interest in the retro approach of the Essesntials. I picked up a Rules Compendium, but that is the only D&D product I bought since last summer. I know about a dozen gamers, between my group and some others: I stand as the one who has the most Essentials products of all of them. The ones who are happy with 4E have no interest in the line, the ones who hate 4E and switched to PF regard it as a victory for "their side", and at least two had no idea what the Essentials was supposed to be.
My hope was that post-Essentials things would get back on track, but clearly that is not the case. While DDXP may provide some big, exciting revelation, I doubt it. The past half a year has really soured my opinion of WotC and the direction of D&D, and the last thing they want to do now is lose their loyal fans.
"This business strategy is sound in many ways yes, but they'd lose out on me as a potential customer because I can simply get the end result. I don't really care about the beginning as long as it's good in the end."
• This sounds like a win-win situation. Most people are less patient than you. So you will benefit from the 'old and reliable' hardcover, while the online subscribers will benefit from 'shiny and new'. Of course many will want both online and hardcover formats. Note, the online subscribers collectively will also have more influence on the final form of the product, which may also interest you. If you dont subscribe online, but happen to hear about a specific article that you care about, nothing is stopping you from becoming a subscriber at that point. Perhaps you can even purchase each article individually.
Something like this had occurred to me recently, too, and I think you have expressed the concept very well. If they were to take your scheme and add an offline CB that holds just what is in the books and not the online "cutting edge"... show me where to sign!
Essentials could have sold very well and still not have been enough. Everything I see hints that it didn't do poorly. However, my suspicion is that 4th has lost a lot of money and then needed a huge bang out of Essentials to bring in the money.
Moving books to DDI is pretty smart. You cut costs of publishing. We print a lot from Italy and China and it's freaking expensive. The larger the print run, the cheaper it is (way cheaper!). I don't think 4th sells are enough to hit the massive cost saving discounts.
I'm only speaking from my publishing background but moving books to digital doesn't strictly point to Essentials having bad sells. It could just be a way to get more money out of a product. The savings are huge. Piracy is overated unless your printing the books.
I said this some time the beginning of the week but I'll repeat it here as well.
I will not buy digital content from any book manufacturer. Trying to read PDFs for more than a few pages gives me headaches. Give me a nice hard bound book with in this context a ton of crunch.I see WotC coming up with a dumb idea like this one, and having all of the essentials fan boys loving the content, so the end result looks like the essentials stuff that I refuse to pay for.
I think they are going to do something like this, except at the end of the year or every six months they will print a compendium of everything so far, so you buy a new book every six months or so with all the rules and the new races/classes/feats etc etc... included...
I think they are going to do something like this, except at the end of the year or every six months they will print a compendium of everything so far, so you buy a new book every six months or so with all the rules and the new races/classes/feats etc etc... included...
This is just my gut reaction, but if they move to a digital distribution scheme I just don't think they'll do book reprints. They've tried reprinting such material in the past, and to the best of my knowledge the Dragon Annual did not sell too well. At the very least the Annuals didn't do well enough to warrant a second volume when their original plan was for there to be one of each every year. Could WotC be moving towards a digital only distribution method? Possibly. I don't see reprints as part of that plan though.....not that they'll get me back as a customer either way. *shrugs*
I don't think Essentials actually did that well. I LOVE the Essentials products. I HOPE they did do very well. But, I can't imagine them canceling the three books they canceled (all of which sound like they were geared towards enhancing what Essentials introduced, be it in terms of integrating that material with older 4e material more cohesively, giving more Essentials organized magic item choices, or the like) if Essentials did well. I am actually pretty worried that this decision was made because Essentials didn't do well at all, and they are now reorganizing what their next step should be. Since Essentials was probably created because 4e wasn't doing as well as they hoped, that has me worried about the 4e brand in general. I am probably jumping to conclusions. I certainly don't have proof of this. All of this is born of my fears more than anything else. But, I can't shake the feeling. Some translucent information from WotC might go a long way to dispelling this impression... but somehow I doubt WotC will ever bother to do something like come out and explicitly explain why they are making the decisions they have made, and what their long term plans for this brand are.
Aside from loving Essentials, I concur. I'm worried about the future of 4e. Slashing your production calendar is not a move you make when things are going well and doing so only serves to undermine you further as you undoubtedly worry your customers.
Heres my theory for the new WotC business model.
Facts
• WotC cancelled most of the upcoming book content: Sword and Spell, Heroic Tier, etc.
• WotC cancelled the monthly compilation in magazine format: each article will now be separate.
• The Research & Development department is now completely responsible for balancing all the content of articles.
My explanation
• WotC will instead publish all of the content from the cancelled books as separate D&DI online articles.
• Later, WotC will compile these articles as hardcover books, by theme.
Advantages of the new publication process
• WotC gives the best and newest content to D&DI online subscribers.
• D&DI becomes valuable.
• Online subscribers will use the content of the articles and detect if there is any need for further errata with regard to mechanics andor flavor.
• Once online players have fully vetted an online article, and it achieves a stable form, WotC will compile it along with articles having a similar theme as a hardcover book.
• The new hardcover books will be extremely high quality, with content and form that has undergone extensive scrutiny and playtesting for many months by many different kinds of D&D players.
• D&DI articles become the venue for new, fresh, and exciting content. Hardcover books become the venue for a stable, polished, and robust 'core'.
It is a brilliant strategy.
I would actually enjoy this direction a lot. However, I suspect that they may move toward a DDI only model. Shove everything behind a silverlight app that requires a DDI sub and call it a day. Having said that, I don't believe that would be a smart move.
Please send your idea to WotC in some form if you think it can influence or inspire them in any way.
Heh. WotC has achieved translucency!
Customer Service set up a new FAQ about the changes to the publication schedule. WotC decided to present the material of the now-cancelled books 'in other ways'.
Q: Why have the Class Compendium: Heroes of Sword and Spell, Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium and Hero Builder's Handbook been removed from the calendar?
A: We are constantly striving to remain conscious of the way our fans consume our content. We felt that the material in these titles would best be presented in other ways and we have plans to make it available in the future.
Inferrably, these 'other ways' mean D&DI online articles. Importantly, WotC will still publish this new content - just in a different venue.
I do hope you're right though. It would be kind of cool. Plus, I'm about to deploy, and while I can visit the website and download articles to read them, buying new books and having them sent to me on the boat would be impractical, as space is at a premium. So this may actually work out better for me...
Heh. WotC has achieved translucency!
Customer Service set up a new FAQ about the changes to the publication schedule. WotC decided to present the material of the now-cancelled books 'in other ways'.Q: Why have the Class Compendium: Heroes of Sword and Spell, Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium and Hero Builder's Handbook been removed from the calendar?
A: We are constantly striving to remain conscious of the way our fans consume our content. We felt that the material in these titles would best be presented in other ways and we have plans to make it available in the future.
Inferrably, these 'other ways' mean D&DI online articles. Importantly, WotC will still publish this new content - just in a different venue.
While I think the most likely venue will be via DDI articles, I think there are other ways that this content could be delivered. For instance, via the CB only (new builds/classes just show up in the builder, for instance). Elsewhere on the forum someone mentioned that since WotC likes cards a lot, you could see decks of common, uncommon, and rare magic items. "Theme" cards could come along. All kinds of stuff.
So I would say this is a faintly translucent gray, at this point. Better than nothing, though.
Edit: before I get labeled a total pessimist, I actually think all that card **** is pretty cool. I love gimcracks and gewgaws in my RPGs (I really like the latest Warhammer FRP, for instance; just unboxing it was more fun than I've had playing some RPGs).
community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/758...
is how I feel about the speculative new business model.
Peace,
Fallstorm
I don’t care what they try to do with CCG elements. I will not buy them. You can do what you like, I’m happy I ditched DDi in October. All of these book cancelations scream content moved to the e-zines, and CCGs.
Now, I didn't say I'd buy them (CCG elements and other gimmicks), just that I think they're cool - that is, I don't object to them on philosophical or financial grounds, or anything. I got a refund for DDI in November and because of the DDI team's performance over the last several months (as well as what looks to me like a completely scattered product strategy), I'm pretty down on D&D as a whole. It is unlikely I'll continue to support this brand in the future.
So it's more "that's an interesting idea" than "I love where they're going."
All of the above is copyrighted Dark Spire© Any use is strictly prohibited...
I would have to guess that it has been forecast that WotC would turn the D&D game into a CCG ever since they acquired it, if only because they are most known for Magic. While not impossible, it is invariably improbable.
Not really...
They know the CCG model works. They see (as can be inferred from their current practices of canceling books) that the current model is not working. They might just try it. I mean look at what they've done up to this point. Fail after fail after fail.
The real question is would you buy the game if 5E was a CCG?
I would have to guess that it has been forecast that WotC would turn the D&D game into a CCG ever since they acquired it, if only because they are most known for Magic. While not impossible, it is invariably improbable.
Not really...
They know the CCG model works. They see (as can be inferred from their current practices of canceling books) that the current model is not working. They might just try it. I mean look at what they've done up to this point. Fail after fail after fail.
The real question is would you buy the game if 5E was a CCG?
I don't think 4e was in any way a fail before Essentials.
I wouldn't buy any kind of 5e at this point. It's just way too soon after 4e was published.
1. HoS going HB, one of the complaints with the essentials are the paperback and digest size.
2. Many people complained that Sword and Spell was a reprint, which it is. If you haven't finish selling what you intend to replace you lose profit, and in this case won't make good sales as it's a reprint. If they are return to the original size, Sword and Spell would be too small, as it was only half of the classes. It would need about 6 months or more to write the rest of the classes.
3. Heroic Tier may just get cut up and add to future books, Themes could be place as a section in one, new skill options in another.
4. The magic item one competes with the two AV's, so I dunno about that one at all.
I think it's too early to tell...
I will say I'm not going to adopt CCG, and have no intention of a monthly digital service....
I doubt there will be a 5e anytime soon. I agree it is too early for 5e: it would be difficult for most D&D players to trust 5e if 4e should prove so vaporous. Moreover, there may never be a '5e' sotospeak. 4e is an evolving platform that, via updates, adapts new features, tweaks current features to reorganize them around successful features, and prunes off unsuccessful features. So, 4e can eventually become anything it needs to be, seemlessly, without ending. I personally expect D&D 5e to not even be a table game, but rather the final translation into an actual virtual-reality environment.
I am excited about the upcoming D&D video digital games. These are best way to provoke interest in D&D among teens. While wer not there yet, ultimately, the D&D video games will be superior to other video games because they will provide tools that allow the DM to build entirely new adventures for the players to explore.
Because WotC is now prioritizing their online digital environment, they are better able to maximize interest and ensure longterm survivability of D&D.
Collectable Card Games?
WotC is experimenting with ways to introduce randomized collectable card games into D&D. Fortune cards exist now. There may well be magic item cards on the way. The random elements of Gamma 'mutations' create the precedent for even player character powers to depend on random cards. I personally feel these random elements are unwise. The D&D game is a complex evolving ecology, and these random disruptions will inevitably destroy the gaming balance. A system that uses cards is so different, that it can no longer be called 'D&D' nor can it be called a 'collectable card game'. Already, D&D has even moved away from rolling ability scores - because their random imbalances are noticeably disruptive to the gaming balance.
Communication?
In my opinion, lack of communication remains the biggest problem in WotC. Recently they have made many drastic changes to the D&D experience with little or no warning to their dependent customers. This reduces confidence and risks ending relationships.
Changes include the reverse direction of the Essential design philosophy, online-only Character Builder, elimination of mechanical content in magazine articles, cancellation of upcoming products, and more. None of these changes are necessarily longterm. Much of the plans for the future remains unclear.
The problem isnt so much the changes made, but the rather the coercion. Thus sectors of the customer base that are dissastisfied with these changes had no recourse or consolation. Had WotC been more transparent and more 'democratic', the early notification would have allowed potentially unhappy customers to articulate their concerns. Then WotC could innovate creative solutions to meet the specific needs of these customers, as much as possible, while adapting to the overall changes. This 'democratic' approach also maximizes customer satisfaction generally, while reaching new customers.
Fortunately, the most recent change to online articles actually solves this problem. By introducing all content digitally, thru D&DI, there is plenty of time to integrate feedback and errata, long before this content ever sees physical print.
Ironically, this abrupt change - the cancellation of upcoming physical print and the prioritizing of the online content - is part of the solution to the problem with communication.
Physical Books?
The evolution from the paper book market to electronic book market is inevitable - but hasnt happened yet. WotC is wise to prioritize the online market to anticipate this shift. But there still must be new physical books in the forseeable future.
Based on vague anecdotal statements from the few gaming-industry designers who are willing to divulge their business statistics, my general impression is the electronic sales are only about 10% of the total profit, while the paper sales are about 90%, when the same product is sold in both venues. Thus there must be physical books to obtain the remaining 90% potential profit.
That said, 10% is actually surprisingly high and electronic media are now a significant stream of profit.
For the forseeable future, both venues - paper and electronic - will exist. Meanwhile the electronic venue makes noticeable gains.
In sum
WotC is doing the right thing by publishing all new content online thru D&DI:
• integrating the desires of online customers, tweaking content in light of feedback, adding significant variants for certain customers, and incorporating errata,
• then later organizing the polished online content as physical books.
Moreover, WotC can gauge the online sales and feedback to predict which physical books will have the widest demand in the physical market place, thus optimizing the profitability of the physical books.
I am going out on a limb here, but I think that they are listening to our imput.
1. HoS going HB, one of the complaints with the essentials are the paperback and digest size.
2. Many people complained that Sword and Spell was a reprint, which it is. If you haven't finish selling what you intend to replace you lose profit, and in this case won't make good sales as it's a reprint. If they are return to the original size, Sword and Spell would be too small, as it was only half of the classes. It would need about 6 months or more to write the rest of the classes.
3. Heroic Tier may just get cut up and add to future books, Themes could be place as a section in one, new skill options in another.
4. The magic item one competes with the two AV's, so I dunno about that one at all.
I think it's too early to tell...
I will say I'm not going to adopt CCG, and have no intention of a monthly digital service....
"I am going out on a limb here, but I think that they are listening to our imput."
I agree with your assessments. But I will become more interested in online D&DI if that becomes the venue for releasing new content.
While this entire thread is admnittedly pure speculation, I am heartened to see some optimism among people....
You got me interested Haldrik, I like the positive thinking in dark times (not to be mistaken for wishful thinking).
Please send your idea to WotC in some form if you think it can influence or inspire them in any way.
I echo these sentiments. Great ideas, Haldrik!
My take is that they are going to try to turn the entire game into a CCG. ... Dungeon will contain adventures that will have encounters that look like this "'The characters enter the room and you hear the sound of gears grinding' [insert level 2 trap card here]. As you recover from your surprise at [trap name] you realize some [insert level 3 humanoid monsters] are trying to sneak in and ambush you."
All of the above is copyrighted Dark Spire© Any use is strictly prohibited...
MadLib adventures!Fortunately, the FLGS owners aren't screwed too hard since they make so little from the books to begin with. I talked about this with some WotC employees during a store tour and it was suggested that subscriptions be bought from stores, similar to the way prepaid WoW cards are. That at least would keep people coming in the doors.
I thought this was a very interesting idea. Small issue, though...What if you don't have a FLGS nearby.
Most services are going in the opposite direction, from paper applications to online. Interesting, though.5e?
I doubt there will be a 5e anytime soon. I agree it is too early for 5e: it would be difficult for most D&D players to trust 5e if 4e should prove so vaporous. Moreover, there may never be a '5e' sotospeak. 4e is an evolving platform that, via updates, adapts new features, tweaks current features to reorganize them around successful features, and prunes off unsuccessful features. So, 4e can eventually become anything it needs to be, seemlessly, without ending. I personally expect D&D 5e to not even be a table game, but rather the final translation into an actual virtual-reality environment.
This is pretty much how I feel things stand as well. 5e talk seems waaaay premature to me. Just my opinion, though.
They should at least listen to the CharOp guys, 'cause those guys aren't going to lead you astray with enraged opinions. If the numbers are good, the numbers are good. If they're not, they're not. Running innovative class concepts through CharOp would be a great way to figure out what works and what doesn't from the technical standpoint (e.g., who would pick Avenger implement powers? Why doesn't an Avenger's oath of enmity scale like others' striker damages?).
So, on the whole, I like what you're saying, Haldrik. It sounds like a nice future. It's just so hard to believe it when there's so little else to go on.
Heres my theory for the new WotC business model.
Facts
• WotC cancelled most of the upcoming book content: Sword and Spell, Heroic Tier, etc.
• WotC cancelled the monthly compilation in magazine format: each article will now be separate.
• The Research & Development department is now completely responsible for balancing all the content of articles.
My explanation
• WotC will instead publish all of the content from the cancelled books as separate D&DI online articles.
• Later, WotC will compile these articles as hardcover books, by theme.
Advantages of the new publication process
• WotC gives the best and newest content to D&DI online subscribers.
• D&DI becomes valuable.
• Online subscribers will use the content of the articles and detect if there is any need for further errata with regard to mechanics andor flavor.
• Once online players have fully vetted an online article, and it achieves a stable form, WotC will compile it along with articles having a similar theme as a hardcover book.
• The new hardcover books will be extremely high quality, with content and form that has undergone extensive scrutiny and playtesting for many months by many different kinds of D&D players.
• D&DI articles become the venue for new, fresh, and exciting content. Hardcover books become the venue for a stable, polished, and robust 'core'.
It is a brilliant strategy.
Problem. What of submissions? What value would DDI be to the non-CB/Compendium customer? These are 2 things that instantly come to my mind, at least. This business strategy is sound in many ways yes, but they'd lose out on me as a potential customer because I can simply get the end result. I don't really care about the beginning as long as it's good in the end.
What of LFR? When does this stuff become LFR compatible?
What of content that doesn't fit the theme? Artificer content, Seeker content, Runepriest content? How does this all fit?
Many questions for just a theory, I suppose. But if this is infact their business model or close to it, all are necessary.
I don't think Essentials actually did that well. I LOVE the Essentials products. I HOPE they did do very well.
I don't mind them. There's a lot of good ideas. And really, I have enough regular Fighter, Rogue and whatnot that having a bizarro "classic" version or two doesn't bug me. Plus, Thieves, Slayers, and Executioners make great chargers. I suppose I hope too that Essentials went well, but I wouldn't want to see the format take over the design of future stuff. I want class and race feats, and I want classes that are their own. I don't mind this stuff being created side by side with the more traditional stuff, though.
Some translucent information from WotC might go a long way to dispelling this impression... but somehow I doubt WotC will ever bother to do something like come out and explicitly explain why they are making the decisions they have made, and what their long term plans for this brand are.
Translucent is probably as transparent as they'll be. I'd appreciate this too, but you're correct in saying that anecdotal evidence is not in favour of explication. Answers would be fantacular, but Wizards of the Coast isn't in the business of providing answers. They're in the business of selling their written word.
In any case, I think I am going to keep the word translucent unedited, because in this case, I don't even think translucency is something we can hope for. Right now, I don't even have much faith in WotC giving us an accurate (but vague) shape of the future. Black curtains are pretty much all we can expect. That, and the odd attempt by WotC to move our attention from what might be behind the curtain to its velvety texture. Lets just hope it doesn't turn out to be dyed rat fur.
I like your idea, and wish to subscribe to your podcast.
So far, you are looking at it.Problem. ...
... "What of submissions?"
• Submissions would continue as normal, except now the Devs themselves will fully proof it and make recommendations before publishing it.
"What value would DDI be to the non-CB/Compendium customer?"
• The non-online customer will wait for the hardcover version, and benefit from the quality of the final product.
"This business strategy is sound in many ways yes, but they'd lose out on me as a potential customer because I can simply get the end result. I don't really care about the beginning as long as it's good in the end."
• This sounds like a win-win situation. Most people are less patient than you. So you will benefit from the 'old and reliable' hardcover, while the online subscribers will benefit from 'shiny and new'. Of course many will want both online and hardcover formats. Note, the online subscribers collectively will also have more influence on the final form of the product, which may also interest you. If you dont subscribe online, but happen to hear about a specific article that you care about, nothing is stopping you from becoming a subscriber at that point. Perhaps you can even purchase each article individually.
"What of LFR? When does this stuff become LFR compatible?"
• No big deal. Living Forgotten Realms will simply create their own new criterion for determining what is 'legal'. In fact, since R&D themselves will process each article, I suspect LFR will simply declare all articles legal - except for Unearthed Arcana whose articles are explicitly experimental.
"What of content that doesn't fit the theme? Artificer content, Seeker content, Runepriest content? How does this all fit?"
• If there really is such thing as an article that has 'no' theme, I suppose they can publish a book whose theme is miscellaneous content. But really, Runepriest could show up in a Divine book alongside Cleric and Paladin builds, new Divine classes, new Divine options for non-Divine classes, fluff for spiritual traditions, divine feats, and so on. Similarly for any new class.
"Many questions for just a theory, I suppose. But if this is infact their business model or close to it, all are necessary."
• Its helpful to explore all angles.
I hope you're right. I expect you're not.
I don't mind if Wizards keeps us from being fully informed. What they have provided so far will keep me content. Pull out the popcorn, sit back and watch everyone freak out and worry.
I'm not particularly surprised by this, I think their strategy with the Essentials was too scattered to succeed--it seems to me that WotC wanted to bring in new, younger players, bring back lapsed players who stuck with 3.5/PF, and (with the red box) bring back players who haven't played since the 80's... Oh and get some sales out of existing 4E fans. That is way too much to expect out of any product.
Personally, I enjoyed 4E as it was, I had no interest in the retro approach of the Essesntials. I picked up a Rules Compendium, but that is the only D&D product I bought since last summer. I know about a dozen gamers, between my group and some others: I stand as the one who has the most Essentials products of all of them. The ones who are happy with 4E have no interest in the line, the ones who hate 4E and switched to PF regard it as a victory for "their side", and at least two had no idea what the Essentials was supposed to be.
My hope was that post-Essentials things would get back on track, but clearly that is not the case. While DDXP may provide some big, exciting revelation, I doubt it. The past half a year has really soured my opinion of WotC and the direction of D&D, and the last thing they want to do now is lose their loyal fans.
"This business strategy is sound in many ways yes, but they'd lose out on me as a potential customer because I can simply get the end result. I don't really care about the beginning as long as it's good in the end."
• This sounds like a win-win situation. Most people are less patient than you. So you will benefit from the 'old and reliable' hardcover, while the online subscribers will benefit from 'shiny and new'. Of course many will want both online and hardcover formats. Note, the online subscribers collectively will also have more influence on the final form of the product, which may also interest you. If you dont subscribe online, but happen to hear about a specific article that you care about, nothing is stopping you from becoming a subscriber at that point. Perhaps you can even purchase each article individually.
Something like this had occurred to me recently, too, and I think you have expressed the concept very well. If they were to take your scheme and add an offline CB that holds just what is in the books and not the online "cutting edge"... show me where to sign!
Essentials could have sold very well and still not have been enough. Everything I see hints that it didn't do poorly. However, my suspicion is that 4th has lost a lot of money and then needed a huge bang out of Essentials to bring in the money.
Moving books to DDI is pretty smart. You cut costs of publishing. We print a lot from Italy and China and it's freaking expensive. The larger the print run, the cheaper it is (way cheaper!). I don't think 4th sells are enough to hit the massive cost saving discounts.
I'm only speaking from my publishing background but moving books to digital doesn't strictly point to Essentials having bad sells. It could just be a way to get more money out of a product. The savings are huge. Piracy is overated unless your printing the books.
I said this some time the beginning of the week but I'll repeat it here as well.
I will not buy digital content from any book manufacturer. Trying to read PDFs for more than a few pages gives me headaches. Give me a nice hard bound book with in this context a ton of crunch.I see WotC coming up with a dumb idea like this one, and having all of the essentials fan boys loving the content, so the end result looks like the essentials stuff that I refuse to pay for.
I think they are going to do something like this, except at the end of the year or every six months they will print a compendium of everything so far, so you buy a new book every six months or so with all the rules and the new races/classes/feats etc etc... included...
I think they are going to do something like this, except at the end of the year or every six months they will print a compendium of everything so far, so you buy a new book every six months or so with all the rules and the new races/classes/feats etc etc... included...
This is just my gut reaction, but if they move to a digital distribution scheme I just don't think they'll do book reprints. They've tried reprinting such material in the past, and to the best of my knowledge the Dragon Annual did not sell too well. At the very least the Annuals didn't do well enough to warrant a second volume when their original plan was for there to be one of each every year. Could WotC be moving towards a digital only distribution method? Possibly. I don't see reprints as part of that plan though.....not that they'll get me back as a customer either way. *shrugs*
I don't think Essentials actually did that well. I LOVE the Essentials products. I HOPE they did do very well. But, I can't imagine them canceling the three books they canceled (all of which sound like they were geared towards enhancing what Essentials introduced, be it in terms of integrating that material with older 4e material more cohesively, giving more Essentials organized magic item choices, or the like) if Essentials did well. I am actually pretty worried that this decision was made because Essentials didn't do well at all, and they are now reorganizing what their next step should be. Since Essentials was probably created because 4e wasn't doing as well as they hoped, that has me worried about the 4e brand in general. I am probably jumping to conclusions. I certainly don't have proof of this. All of this is born of my fears more than anything else. But, I can't shake the feeling. Some translucent information from WotC might go a long way to dispelling this impression... but somehow I doubt WotC will ever bother to do something like come out and explicitly explain why they are making the decisions they have made, and what their long term plans for this brand are.
Aside from loving Essentials, I concur. I'm worried about the future of 4e. Slashing your production calendar is not a move you make when things are going well and doing so only serves to undermine you further as you undoubtedly worry your customers.
Heres my theory for the new WotC business model.
Facts
• WotC cancelled most of the upcoming book content: Sword and Spell, Heroic Tier, etc.
• WotC cancelled the monthly compilation in magazine format: each article will now be separate.
• The Research & Development department is now completely responsible for balancing all the content of articles.
My explanation
• WotC will instead publish all of the content from the cancelled books as separate D&DI online articles.
• Later, WotC will compile these articles as hardcover books, by theme.
Advantages of the new publication process
• WotC gives the best and newest content to D&DI online subscribers.
• D&DI becomes valuable.
• Online subscribers will use the content of the articles and detect if there is any need for further errata with regard to mechanics andor flavor.
• Once online players have fully vetted an online article, and it achieves a stable form, WotC will compile it along with articles having a similar theme as a hardcover book.
• The new hardcover books will be extremely high quality, with content and form that has undergone extensive scrutiny and playtesting for many months by many different kinds of D&D players.
• D&DI articles become the venue for new, fresh, and exciting content. Hardcover books become the venue for a stable, polished, and robust 'core'.
It is a brilliant strategy.
I would actually enjoy this direction a lot. However, I suspect that they may move toward a DDI only model. Shove everything behind a silverlight app that requires a DDI sub and call it a day. Having said that, I don't believe that would be a smart move.
Please send your idea to WotC in some form if you think it can influence or inspire them in any way.
Heh. WotC has achieved translucency!
Customer Service set up a new FAQ about the changes to the publication schedule. WotC decided to present the material of the now-cancelled books 'in other ways'.
Q: Why have the Class Compendium: Heroes of Sword and Spell, Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium and Hero Builder's Handbook been removed from the calendar?
A: We are constantly striving to remain conscious of the way our fans consume our content. We felt that the material in these titles would best be presented in other ways and we have plans to make it available in the future.
Inferrably, these 'other ways' mean D&DI online articles. Importantly, WotC will still publish this new content - just in a different venue.
I do hope you're right though. It would be kind of cool. Plus, I'm about to deploy, and while I can visit the website and download articles to read them, buying new books and having them sent to me on the boat would be impractical, as space is at a premium. So this may actually work out better for me...
Heh. WotC has achieved translucency!
Customer Service set up a new FAQ about the changes to the publication schedule. WotC decided to present the material of the now-cancelled books 'in other ways'.Q: Why have the Class Compendium: Heroes of Sword and Spell, Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium and Hero Builder's Handbook been removed from the calendar?
A: We are constantly striving to remain conscious of the way our fans consume our content. We felt that the material in these titles would best be presented in other ways and we have plans to make it available in the future.
Inferrably, these 'other ways' mean D&DI online articles. Importantly, WotC will still publish this new content - just in a different venue.
While I think the most likely venue will be via DDI articles, I think there are other ways that this content could be delivered. For instance, via the CB only (new builds/classes just show up in the builder, for instance). Elsewhere on the forum someone mentioned that since WotC likes cards a lot, you could see decks of common, uncommon, and rare magic items. "Theme" cards could come along. All kinds of stuff.
So I would say this is a faintly translucent gray, at this point. Better than nothing, though.
Edit: before I get labeled a total pessimist, I actually think all that card **** is pretty cool. I love gimcracks and gewgaws in my RPGs (I really like the latest Warhammer FRP, for instance; just unboxing it was more fun than I've had playing some RPGs).
community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/758...
is how I feel about the speculative new business model.
Peace,
Fallstorm
I don’t care what they try to do with CCG elements. I will not buy them. You can do what you like, I’m happy I ditched DDi in October. All of these book cancelations scream content moved to the e-zines, and CCGs.
Now, I didn't say I'd buy them (CCG elements and other gimmicks), just that I think they're cool - that is, I don't object to them on philosophical or financial grounds, or anything. I got a refund for DDI in November and because of the DDI team's performance over the last several months (as well as what looks to me like a completely scattered product strategy), I'm pretty down on D&D as a whole. It is unlikely I'll continue to support this brand in the future.
So it's more "that's an interesting idea" than "I love where they're going."
All of the above is copyrighted Dark Spire© Any use is strictly prohibited...
I would have to guess that it has been forecast that WotC would turn the D&D game into a CCG ever since they acquired it, if only because they are most known for Magic. While not impossible, it is invariably improbable.
Not really...
They know the CCG model works. They see (as can be inferred from their current practices of canceling books) that the current model is not working. They might just try it. I mean look at what they've done up to this point. Fail after fail after fail.
The real question is would you buy the game if 5E was a CCG?
I would have to guess that it has been forecast that WotC would turn the D&D game into a CCG ever since they acquired it, if only because they are most known for Magic. While not impossible, it is invariably improbable.
Not really...
They know the CCG model works. They see (as can be inferred from their current practices of canceling books) that the current model is not working. They might just try it. I mean look at what they've done up to this point. Fail after fail after fail.
The real question is would you buy the game if 5E was a CCG?
I don't think 4e was in any way a fail before Essentials.
I wouldn't buy any kind of 5e at this point. It's just way too soon after 4e was published.
1. HoS going HB, one of the complaints with the essentials are the paperback and digest size.
2. Many people complained that Sword and Spell was a reprint, which it is. If you haven't finish selling what you intend to replace you lose profit, and in this case won't make good sales as it's a reprint. If they are return to the original size, Sword and Spell would be too small, as it was only half of the classes. It would need about 6 months or more to write the rest of the classes.
3. Heroic Tier may just get cut up and add to future books, Themes could be place as a section in one, new skill options in another.
4. The magic item one competes with the two AV's, so I dunno about that one at all.
I think it's too early to tell...
I will say I'm not going to adopt CCG, and have no intention of a monthly digital service....
I doubt there will be a 5e anytime soon. I agree it is too early for 5e: it would be difficult for most D&D players to trust 5e if 4e should prove so vaporous. Moreover, there may never be a '5e' sotospeak. 4e is an evolving platform that, via updates, adapts new features, tweaks current features to reorganize them around successful features, and prunes off unsuccessful features. So, 4e can eventually become anything it needs to be, seemlessly, without ending. I personally expect D&D 5e to not even be a table game, but rather the final translation into an actual virtual-reality environment.
I am excited about the upcoming D&D video digital games. These are best way to provoke interest in D&D among teens. While wer not there yet, ultimately, the D&D video games will be superior to other video games because they will provide tools that allow the DM to build entirely new adventures for the players to explore.
Because WotC is now prioritizing their online digital environment, they are better able to maximize interest and ensure longterm survivability of D&D.
Collectable Card Games?
WotC is experimenting with ways to introduce randomized collectable card games into D&D. Fortune cards exist now. There may well be magic item cards on the way. The random elements of Gamma 'mutations' create the precedent for even player character powers to depend on random cards. I personally feel these random elements are unwise. The D&D game is a complex evolving ecology, and these random disruptions will inevitably destroy the gaming balance. A system that uses cards is so different, that it can no longer be called 'D&D' nor can it be called a 'collectable card game'. Already, D&D has even moved away from rolling ability scores - because their random imbalances are noticeably disruptive to the gaming balance.
Communication?
In my opinion, lack of communication remains the biggest problem in WotC. Recently they have made many drastic changes to the D&D experience with little or no warning to their dependent customers. This reduces confidence and risks ending relationships.
Changes include the reverse direction of the Essential design philosophy, online-only Character Builder, elimination of mechanical content in magazine articles, cancellation of upcoming products, and more. None of these changes are necessarily longterm. Much of the plans for the future remains unclear.
The problem isnt so much the changes made, but the rather the coercion. Thus sectors of the customer base that are dissastisfied with these changes had no recourse or consolation. Had WotC been more transparent and more 'democratic', the early notification would have allowed potentially unhappy customers to articulate their concerns. Then WotC could innovate creative solutions to meet the specific needs of these customers, as much as possible, while adapting to the overall changes. This 'democratic' approach also maximizes customer satisfaction generally, while reaching new customers.
Fortunately, the most recent change to online articles actually solves this problem. By introducing all content digitally, thru D&DI, there is plenty of time to integrate feedback and errata, long before this content ever sees physical print.
Ironically, this abrupt change - the cancellation of upcoming physical print and the prioritizing of the online content - is part of the solution to the problem with communication.
Physical Books?
The evolution from the paper book market to electronic book market is inevitable - but hasnt happened yet. WotC is wise to prioritize the online market to anticipate this shift. But there still must be new physical books in the forseeable future.
Based on vague anecdotal statements from the few gaming-industry designers who are willing to divulge their business statistics, my general impression is the electronic sales are only about 10% of the total profit, while the paper sales are about 90%, when the same product is sold in both venues. Thus there must be physical books to obtain the remaining 90% potential profit.
That said, 10% is actually surprisingly high and electronic media are now a significant stream of profit.
For the forseeable future, both venues - paper and electronic - will exist. Meanwhile the electronic venue makes noticeable gains.
In sum
WotC is doing the right thing by publishing all new content online thru D&DI:
• integrating the desires of online customers, tweaking content in light of feedback, adding significant variants for certain customers, and incorporating errata,
• then later organizing the polished online content as physical books.
Moreover, WotC can gauge the online sales and feedback to predict which physical books will have the widest demand in the physical market place, thus optimizing the profitability of the physical books.
I am going out on a limb here, but I think that they are listening to our imput.
1. HoS going HB, one of the complaints with the essentials are the paperback and digest size.
2. Many people complained that Sword and Spell was a reprint, which it is. If you haven't finish selling what you intend to replace you lose profit, and in this case won't make good sales as it's a reprint. If they are return to the original size, Sword and Spell would be too small, as it was only half of the classes. It would need about 6 months or more to write the rest of the classes.
3. Heroic Tier may just get cut up and add to future books, Themes could be place as a section in one, new skill options in another.
4. The magic item one competes with the two AV's, so I dunno about that one at all.
I think it's too early to tell...
I will say I'm not going to adopt CCG, and have no intention of a monthly digital service....
"I am going out on a limb here, but I think that they are listening to our imput."
I agree with your assessments. But I will become more interested in online D&DI if that becomes the venue for releasing new content.
While this entire thread is admnittedly pure speculation, I am heartened to see some optimism among people....
You got me interested Haldrik, I like the positive thinking in dark times (not to be mistaken for wishful thinking).
Please send your idea to WotC in some form if you think it can influence or inspire them in any way.
I echo these sentiments. Great ideas, Haldrik!
My take is that they are going to try to turn the entire game into a CCG. ... Dungeon will contain adventures that will have encounters that look like this "'The characters enter the room and you hear the sound of gears grinding' [insert level 2 trap card here]. As you recover from your surprise at [trap name] you realize some [insert level 3 humanoid monsters] are trying to sneak in and ambush you."
All of the above is copyrighted Dark Spire© Any use is strictly prohibited...
MadLib adventures!Fortunately, the FLGS owners aren't screwed too hard since they make so little from the books to begin with. I talked about this with some WotC employees during a store tour and it was suggested that subscriptions be bought from stores, similar to the way prepaid WoW cards are. That at least would keep people coming in the doors.
I thought this was a very interesting idea. Small issue, though...What if you don't have a FLGS nearby.
Most services are going in the opposite direction, from paper applications to online. Interesting, though.5e?
I doubt there will be a 5e anytime soon. I agree it is too early for 5e: it would be difficult for most D&D players to trust 5e if 4e should prove so vaporous. Moreover, there may never be a '5e' sotospeak. 4e is an evolving platform that, via updates, adapts new features, tweaks current features to reorganize them around successful features, and prunes off unsuccessful features. So, 4e can eventually become anything it needs to be, seemlessly, without ending. I personally expect D&D 5e to not even be a table game, but rather the final translation into an actual virtual-reality environment.
This is pretty much how I feel things stand as well. 5e talk seems waaaay premature to me. Just my opinion, though.