Dragons of Eberron offered some very good suggestions and guidelines for the average game and Dungeon Master. Without focusing on semantics of what the Draconic Prophecy is or isn't, and whether or not there is some overreaching cataclysmic event in store, there are still some good questions for DMs on how to apply the Prophecy. This is particularly true for DMs with players that are keen, or who want more involvement in the intrigue and plot.
The standing examples of how the Draconic Prophecy functions revolve around key factors and elements on a mutable substructure. The elements are connected somehow, but apparently independant and important to some greater course of events. I'll use an example from my current campaign to illustrate this more clearly:
[INDENT]"In the town of Silence, the voice of the lone wanderer speaks the past. In the haunted house, the rocking chair can stop the demon. In the Starpeaks, the copper bull waits. If the lone wanderer dies the Fallen Orc will speak the doom of us all."[/INDENT]
So how does one make the connections between these events, and how do the players understand the links between seemingly unrelated events?
This is where the concept of convergence comes in. Specifically, the convergence of random variables in probability. All things, however highly improbable can occur. Some people think of this as chaos theory; the whole 'butterfly flaps its wings in the Indian ocean starting a hurricane in the Atlantic' idea. Except that the unifying factor is not sheer randomness and chaos (as per the theory), but a common unseen factor of influence that raises the probability, tying together events until at some point along the linear all variables converge to produce a result that would otherwise be nigh-impossible.
In the above example, the seperate factors (Silence town, Lone Wanderer, Haunted House, Rocking Chair, Demon, Copper Bull, Starpeaks, and the Fallen Orc) are all seperate, independant points that contribute as seperate variables to a possible end result that could be cataclysmic.
In my campaign, Whisper Rock in northern Aundair is a dimensional seal on an extradimensional prison created by a silver dragon in the age of demons to contain a Rakshasa named Lahkshmi. It survived the goblinoid empire, invasion from Xoriat, and the first years of Galifar's reign. A small town, then called Aundair's light, turned away a mortally wounded Gatekeeper druid - who discovered and had been guarding the seal, and had been attacked by a town resident - on the grounds that he was an orc. He returned to the stone, fell bloody on the seal, and with his last whispered words bound himself and the town to the stone's protection for eternity. As he died, the seal cracked, but did not break as the orc's spirit fights to hold the seal.
The townsfolk, later finding the murderer amongst them and haunted by the whispered words from the wood, assemble at Whisper Rock. The spirit of the Fallen Orc explains that if they do not make a sacrifice from a willing member every generation, the magic of the seal will break and the Rakshasa will be freed. That sacrifice must abide to live in the woods near the stone and never leave their post, as their absence will deplete the magics.
Over generations, the townsfolk forget their pledge to the Fallen Orc and the seal is held only by the sheer chance that every generation or so a townsmember is born a little bit of a loner, and the woods make an obvious home for a hermit. Defacto keeping the pact. The townsfolk forget that their town was renamed 'Silence' for their dirty little secret, and eventually the seal weakens enough for the Rakshasa's influence to grow. The Rakshasa manages to free one of his servants, a blue-skinned imp named Kretts.
Kretts likes his freedom, and has no desire to return to the dimensional prison with his master Lahkshmi. So he attempts to find a way to drive the keeper from his post. He takes up residence in the keeper's house in the woods, possessing objects and attempting to make the house appear haunted. This ploy works only sufficiently to make the keeper wander into town seeking help. When he gets there, the town is empty.
A member of the Aurum tied to Queen Aurala ir'Wynarn (Lord Kas ir'Taula) has managed to influence events in Aundair sufficiently to increase his hold over commerce in the north. He aspires to take some of the trade with the Eldeen reaches from houses Vadalis and Lyrandar, but to do this he must open a new road from his town and villa to the northern shores of Lake Galifar. This road must pass north of the Whisper Wood, and right through the town of Silence. The town, however, refuses to let him go ahead with building the road saying it will interfere with the grazing of their livestock and detrimentally affect their mode of living.
So Kas, a competent wizard and one-time member of the Arcane Congress, uses an artifact recovered from Xendrik which takes every living creature in the village and shunts them into the ethereal. The entire town simply 'vanishes', leaving Lord Kas free to go ahead with his plans, once the town has been declared abandoned.
Lady Cala requests that a group of adventurers investigate, and this is where they encounter the keeper of the seal, the lone wanderer in town.
A member of the Chamber, the young copper dragon Torrocyldonyx ('the cerulean bull', 'cerulean' for the patina'd tinge at the edge of his scales) notices an emerging thread in the Prophecy that points to the area around Starpeaks observatory. He sets up shop on an adjacent peak to observe the observatory, the nearby caves, the star alignments, and any unusual events in the area. The Bull is not known for his subtlety, hence his name, and his appearance makes the observatory keeper nervous. This wizard, Larhut, petitions the help of a group of adventurers, our protatogonists, who suspect a tie between the disappearances and the dragon.
During the course of their investigations, one of the party members manifests an aberrant dragonmark with the power of a Siberys mark at the same time the stars above the observatory come into an unusual alignment. The mark has no associated power that anyone can detect (and the players don't know what it is). This draws the dragon's attention, and the dragon eventually discovers the seal at Whisper Rock.
Looking for answers, the party (going on info from 'The Bull' and the 'lone Wanderer') head into the woods, only to find the haunted house and Whisper Rock.
"In the town of Silence, the voice of the lone wanderer speaks the past."
[INDENT]The keeper from the woods, 'the lone wanderer', is old enough to know the old stories of the Fallen Orc and the town's promise but dismisses it largely as myth. Does he tell the PCs?[/INDENT]
"In the haunted house, the rocking chair can stop the demon."
[INDENT]The rebellious imp, Kretts, knows how to permanently seal Whisper Rock, trapping his master forever (or until the seal breaks again by some carelessness). Can the party discover his deception and coerce/convince him to help them?[/INDENT]
"In the Starpeaks, the copper bull waits."
[INDENT]Torrocyldonyx is powerful enough to summon the magics necessary to seal Whisper Rock, but doesn't know the process. He's also the only one who can contact the dragon who might decipher the mysterious aberrant Siberys mark. However, does he dare raise the attention of the Eyes of Chronepsis?[/INDENT]
"If the lone wanderer dies the Fallen Orc will speak the doom of us all."
[INDENT]If at any point the lone wanderer dies, and is not replaced as the keeper of the seal, then Lahkshmi the Rakshasa will be freed. If the party members damage the seal further, the Rakshasa will be freed. If they anger Kretts, he won't help them, and will likely find a way to distance the keeper from the seal, also effectively freeing the Rakshasa. Will the adventurers make the right move? Will it matter? Or will another like Lord Kas or the Lords of Dust intervene?[/INDENT]
Now, how do the party members map out this convergence? How does the DM? How do you possibly keep this straight, and know how to give the PCs hints as to where they might be getting warm, or find a clue that could lead them in a lateral direction? How do you map all of the facets of this interconnectedness?
It's simple.
Write out a point-form list of all of the important characters, plot devices, hooks, elements, items, artifacts, etc. Then, sort them into groups as they are most connected, centred around the biggest elements. (In the above example, "Starpeaks Observatory" would be surrounded by "Torrocyldonyx", "Larhut", "Siberys Mark", "Star Alignment", "Dimensional Seal".) Then, wrap these points around the circumference of a circle. Wherever there is a link across the diameter of the circle (for example, from "Larhut" to "Lord Kas" - they're both former members of the Arcane Congress) draw a line. Where those lines intersect, there's a chance that a character in the know can make a lateral jump of logic to identify other clues.
A PC with the Dragon Prophet prestige class might gain special bonuses to make these leaps of logic. Further, a Dragon Prophet might also gain the ability to see even further into the convergence of random events and variables, and be able to achieve supernatural ends with very little effort.
Custom Feat:
Convergence Adept
PreReq: Dragon Prophet, Half-Dragon, or Sorcerer
Benefit: Your ability to read the confluence of events allows you to alter fate and reality in minor ways, riding the wave of other events. You make a spot check (at -5, DC 25) to notice a convergence. If successful, you get a free action point to spend immediately.
Special: You must be in possession of at least three portents relevant to the Draconic Prophecy that have not yet borne fruit (DM's discretion).
I think you have a great storyline with the potential to run an entire campaign based on what you have so far. You can have Dragons trying to control the outcome to fit the prophecy to their ends. You could as you said have Fiends from the Lords of Dust manipulating the situation in favor of their Lords. Both the dragons and the fiends could be helping or opposing the PCs which ever works better for you.
(graffiti on Sharn's towers,
I just got this image of a young wizard running around Sharn making graffiti with his arcane mark, but he had no control over the shape of the mark. And every time he cast it he made a new mark for the prophecy. Naturally he would be on the brink of madness since he saw a bunch of dragons tailing him and no one believed him.
How does one use the Draconic Prophecy?
Lately I've been very keen to promote player involvement in campaign production (brainstorming hooks and themes) and direction (choosing the course of a session). The Draconic Prophecy could be a useful framing device for soliciting player input.
Players could have the option to flag some NPC, location, or object as a "sign." Kind of like picking a required element for an improv game, the DM then has to incorporate this element into the current (or an upcoming) adventure.
In a slight variation, the DM could present a cryptic prophetic statement like Stonwulfe's example, and then players could have a hand in how the terms are interpreted. Is the Town of Silence a ghost town, a small town at night, a town with an ancient name that translates quiet? The party gets to call it (though, as in Order of the Stick, they don't have to get it right the first time).
Alternately, the players could have a turn at coming up with the cryptic prophetic statements. Whether one of the characters is a student of the Prophecy, or someone has an acute case of the Bard's Tongue, the goal is to come up with a florid phrase that the rest of the group can pick apart for actionable inspiration.
Fortunately, my group gets a lot of between-session downtime, so it's generally easy to play the moment and react to the signs and debate about the design behind the Prophecy later.
