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| #1fey_felineSep 12, 2010 16:37:28 | Eberron has been set in 998 YK since it's inception. That's fine. It's a great time period. None of the Five Nations are at war, the Inspired are still subtly scheming, Xen'Drik is still waiting to be explored, and the Dragons are watching from afar. |
| #2dsivisSep 13, 2010 23:15:49 | Brelish civil war. It's pretty much inevitable. The only thing holding it off is King Boranel being alive. And he's old. The country's probably going to be split between areas occupied by: Aundair (the Blackcaps & Xandrar) Thrane (the Northeast, such as Vathirond & Starilaskur) Darguun (Kennrun area) New Cyre will probably use this as an oppurtunity to expand Droaam will probably break through the Graywall mtns with the border guards drawn in. The North is home to an antimonarchist movement backed by Aundair (& the Lords of Dust) (see 5 Nations) Zilargo might move in troops to protect Gnomes and Zil economic interests. The heart of Breland along the Dagger River is likely to be split somehow between Parliamentarian and Monarchist forces jockeying for position. Obviously, ordinary Brelish will suffer the most, especially in large cities when grain shipments from rural areas are raided. A "rump state" or two might survive along the river and Southern coast, but it'll be poorer, lower in population and with much more foreign manipulation. |
| #3m4kitsuSep 14, 2010 1:02:41 | That rather depends on whether or not a new figurehead can rise in Boranel's place and take the reins from him. None of Boranel's kids have shown the same talent for leadership, but someone else the right age has: Haydith. After the conclusion of my last Eberron campaign's arc and the dawn of 4e, I jumped my timeline only two years and put Breland and Karrnath very, very close to unification thanks to her influence (whether or not she was being manipulated by someone else was never revealed): Boranel had all but crowned her and she had led a popular uprising in Karrnath against the Crown after the current government refused to take action in response to a turf war between the Conquering Fist and Emerald Claw. Very few of anybody in the ruling class liked her, but she had the support of the populations of the two largest of the Five Nations, which made everyone else quite nervous. Obviously, having that actually come to pass would mean nearly instant war as Thrane panics (and Aundair seizes the opportunity), but that comes down to just how deep the conspiracies run and who is really allied with whom. |
| #4Madfox11Sep 14, 2010 5:06:37 | Obviously, having that actually come to pass would mean nearly instant war as Thrane panics (and Aundair seizes the opportunity), but that comes down to just how deep the conspiracies run and who is really allied with whom. Or in case of Thrane on whom actually won the conflict within the Church between those who want a theology and those who actually want the Church to step out of government. Because if the Church does take a step back from ruling, and Haydith somehow wins the Voice over to her side that might get Thrane to actually side with her. Obviously, Aunadair would panic in that case, probably before that. Odd to think that for Aunadair it is actually better that the Church of the Silver Flame remains firmly in charge of the country since that would at least prevent Thrane from allying with any of the other countries. It would also mean that it is easier for Aunadair to keep up the hatred against Thrane since the Silver Flame extremists making life harder in the border regions are easier to associate with that country. Of course, that is one potential scenario, and one that might actually come to pass with the aid of the PCs ;) Another would be that with a civil war in Breland, Aunadair sees its opportunity, at which point the other nations have to get involved. The resulting backlash actually causes the nations to splinter even more, returning Khorvair back to the state before conquest by Kharnn and Galifar, one of dozens of small kingdoms constantly in conflict with one another, not unlike what happened in Europe after the Romans. |
| #5Bly2729Sep 14, 2010 19:39:26 | There are all kinds of things that could come to pass but for the intervention of 3-6 well armed and financed meddling kids. What must be answered in 10 years? 10-12 years after the Treaty of Versailles you had Nazism, the 5 Year Plan, and the Japanese invasion of China.
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| #6HecklingHoundSep 14, 2010 21:59:41 | I briefly had a game like this. We had the Brelish Civil War in the background. Like other posters suggested, New Cyre and Darguun were encroaching on Brelish territory. The actual game was about the Becoming God and a vague macguffin artifact. I forget the details. But, I was giving the players copies of the Korranberg Chronicle to keep up with events. The last one I remember was about a Franco-style military coup in Thrane. I may have had a Karrn-Thrane border conflict in the interim that spurred that on. Essentially, I was setting up for a WWII scenario since the setting as written has clear WWI parallels. My inspiration was something like Raiders of the Lost Ark meets Morrowind. Also, I never said this was a good idea... |
| #7m4kitsuSep 15, 2010 4:05:16 | Or in case of Thrane on whom actually won the conflict within the Church between those who want a theology and those who actually want the Church to step out of government. Because if the Church does take a step back from ruling, and Haydith somehow wins the Voice over to her side that might get Thrane to actually side with her. If that's even necessary. I strongly suspect Diani and Jaela are on the same side of things in the end, and sooner or later somebody's going to have to make a move -whether it'll be Jaela, Krozen, Diani or someone else close doesn't really make a difference, Thrane is its own powder keg. If I were to play that out, it would be Krozen making a move against Jaela to sieze power in the church for himself having dug up Meylisse (or however you spell it) claiming her as the true Voice and Jaela as the false one. He uses that as propaganda fuel for an overthrow of Daran, who escapes to Silvercliff and Diani's protection (Krozen can't touch her at the moment since she's still royalty). Krozen manipulates Meylisse (or the other way around, really) into whipping the people back into a fanatical war footing for reconquest of "western Thrane." Assuming Aurala doesn't launch a first strike at that point, Krozen basically has a two-front war on his hands: again Aundair in the west and partisan forces led by both Diani's standing forces as well as clergy still loyal to Jaela. In fact, if I did this, I think I'd actually have one of the PCs playing as Jaela and the rest be her military advisors and bodyguards. Odd to think that for Aunadair it is actually better that the Church of the Silver Flame remains firmly in charge of the country since that would at least prevent Thrane from allying with any of the other countries. It would also mean that it is easier for Aunadair to keep up the hatred against Thrane since the Silver Flame extremists making life harder in the border regions are easier to associate with that country. That depends on the face of the chruch. Jaela is more a figurehead than a secular leader, and it's Krozen that maintains the day-to-day of the Chruch. If he were removed and Jaela took a more active hand in affairs (which really isn't her job, but nevermind), you'd see the hardliners slinking back into the shadows in short order, which would go a long way toward bettering the reputation of Thrane as a whole (remember they're the ones responsible for firebombing the civillian population of Rekkenmark during the war). However if the reverse were true and Krozen didn't have to tiptoe around Jaela and was able to act openly, that would, for all intents and purposes, be a declaration of war against someone, likely Aundair, which the Royal Eyes would probably see coming a long way off. Brelish Succession - Even if the Old Bear rolled high on his venerable score, there would have to be action on this within a decade. Which is a problem, since none of his kids have shown anything he might consider to make a worthy ruler. As I mentioned above, however, Haydith does. In all likelihood, though, Boranel's smartest move is to push Breland from a constitutional monarchy to a democratic republic -by legitimizing what parliament wants anyway, he stops that civil war before it gets off the ground, gives the people a voice in controlling it and shuts down his own heirs from the ability to destroy what he has wrought. Krozen's Ambition - In addition to (or because of) Jaela's 18th birthday in 1008, the two most powerful figures in Thrane are on a collision course. One of them will move against the other. I'd say you're long by a few years. 15 or 16 is more likely, but once again that ties back into Diani and the status of Jaela as a figurehead. I don't think Jaela will move on her own, but somebody else (PCs) might move on her behalf, assuming that Krozen doesn't take the first act (see above.) Karrnathi Succession - At about 37, the surely still youthful King Kaius III is expected by all to be the longest and greatest king in ages. Yet after 16 years of marriage has the King any heirs to speak of? Boranel produced eleven in his days. It would be a sign of weakness for the line of Karrn to reach a dead end. I suspect Kaius is hoping to have a solution to that whole Erandis problem before that. Either that or he installs someone else (Haydith again) after his abdication, and repeats the process he's already done once. Sooner or later someone is going to notice, though, and I think he knows that. There are enough leaks (Haydith, Etrigani, Malvenor) that somebody's going to start getting suspicious sooner or later. @HecklingHound: Indeed, the parallels are fairly strong between Eberron's Last War and our own history, but Khorvaire's balance of power is different -things are more tedious than our world was after Versailles. In our history it was the treaty itself (and Britain's eventual unwillingness to actually enforce it) that brought about WWII. It was only a matter of time in the end that it was going to happen eventually. On Khorvaire, Thronehold has established a fairly precise balancing act. One that nobody is willing to tip yet, since any move to gain an advantage over someone gives someone else an advantage over you. Khorvaire's next war isn't going to be an Axis vs. Allies situation, it's going to be a seven- (or more) sided free for all unless a few key relationships are established very quickly. Another war on Khorvaire isn't any less inevitable than WWII was for us, but it's going to come from a different place. Versailles precipitated a slow build-up of strength that could have been stopped before it got out of hand if the Allies hadn't felt sorry for the losers. Khorvaire is a powder magazine and whoever lights the first match is going to blow everybody to bits. There are also two uninvolved juggernauts waiting in the wings (The Inspired and the Lords of Dust, respectively) who might both benefit from a renewed war and could conceivably come down on any side of it. There's also the dragons, who are as likely to just burn all of Khorvaire to the ground as they are to actually help anyone. Of course, messing with delicate balances are what PCs do best. I'd love to see the looks on a group's faces when they realize they caused the next war. |
| #8Madfox11Sep 15, 2010 4:46:53 | Haydith actually doesn't know about Kaius. It is the reason why she was send away, since she was actually close enough to the real Kaius to recognize the switch. |
| #9Mr._WilsonSep 15, 2010 6:12:35 | Besides the Brelish Civil War, IMHO the most likely starting points for the Next War are, in no particular order: Thaliost. Aundair wants it back. Badly. With Prince Adel working behind the scenes to make it happen, plus extremist Cardinals running the show in the city proper, this city is the Balkans, to steal a Pre-WWI reference. House Cannith or House Denieth. What happens if Merrix is found out? Do the Dragonmark Houses rally to aid one of their own or does Cannith splinter? And what happens if Deneith convinces the rest of the houses to go along with their unification plots? King Kaius. All it takes is one diplomat stumbling onto the fact he's a vampire for the other 4 nations to move against him. |
| #10jastermereelSep 15, 2010 7:51:40 | If I may interject, I believe that Aundair may be more keen on trying to reconquer the Eldeen Reaches than going after Thaliost directly. That's only because I assume that the Eldeen Reaches don't have a very strong relationship with any of the big players among the 5 Nations (correct me if I'm wrong; I'm still relatively new to the setting and trying to catch up as quickly as I can before I start my next campaign). I was even toying with the idea that you could have a situation like that of Poland right before the Second World War with the Eldeen Reaches, where their independence is "guaranteed", but if it really came to it no one would actually intervene (with military action) in an invasion of the ER by Aundair. The only caveat is that there is no Soviet Union on the other side of the country to invade on a second front, so the war would become drawn out and very bloody rather than swift and overwhelming. Depending on how smart Aurala and her generals are, they could be bogged down in such a quagmire while events go down elsewhere on the continent (perhaps they figured it would be an "easy victory"). However, this involved a plot point whereby Aundair gains access to some very nice ancient technology and Aurala builds a new Royal Army around it so that she doesn't have to deal with the quackery of feudal defense agreements (and the tendency for feudal lords to rally to defend their own lands rather than supporting the Crown), which would also give Aundair the (over?) confidence needed to make them willing to start something. Just my two cents. Obviously, a lot of this scenario relies solely on my own plots devices rather than anything actually present in canon. |
| #11naturaxSep 15, 2010 8:42:59 | If I may interject, I believe that Aundair may be more keen on trying to reconquer the Eldeen Reaches than going after Thaliost directly. That's only because I assume that the Eldeen Reaches don't have a very strong relationship with any of the big players among the 5 Nations (correct me if I'm wrong; I'm still relatively new to the setting and trying to catch up as quickly as I can before I start my next campaign). In the true Eberron style, I don't think it's quite that simple. One of the reasons "Western Aundair" split into its own nation was because Karrnath was funding the bandits in the forest to give the farmers and traders a really tough time. When they asked for aid from the capital, the response was a request for more troops to send to the front. That was a major factor in letting the druids seize control of the nation. I don't think anything is written about the fact that the Reaches touch Breland's border, but it would surprise me if Breland wasn't a major trading partner with them over the last decade, at the very least. But a lot is written about different factions within Aurala's court, and the fact that one wants to go for the Reaches while the other wants Thaliost is something that really fascinates me, in fact. |
| #12Mr._WilsonSep 15, 2010 12:50:33 | I believe Aundair is more likely to attack Thrane then the Reaches for three reasons, two of which hinge on First Warlord Adel. First, I believe that, push come to shove, Aurala is more likely to stand by her brother's plan, as oppossed to Lord Darro's, partly because of blood ties, by more likely because Adel is much more likely to use mind-influencing magic on her to help convince her that is the way to go. Second, even if Aurala is unsure which plan to follow and Adel forgoes the use of magic on his sister, Adel is the kind of man that would engineer an international incident to ensure his plan is chosen. One riot leading to a massacre, a rebellion, etc. could give Adel his excuse and justification for war. Third, I believe Aundair's people are more willing to bleed for Thaliost then for the Reaches. The Reaches are still kin, estranged kin, but kin nonetheless. Thaliost is under the sway of Thrane, and thus, is in fact occupied by an hated enemy. |
| #13naturaxSep 15, 2010 13:14:23 | Excellent points, Mr. W. I'm going to be sure to use those when I start running my game in the Reaches. Thanks! |
| #14Bly2729Sep 15, 2010 14:22:01 | Thaliost may be a powder keg, but its still possible to have a high tolerance for oppression. Look at China and Taiwan with regard to Aundair and Thaliost. Could they take it? Of course. But there are unknowable reprucussions that make the status quo a preferable alternative. The Reaches on the other hand is a much less overt, low cost front. Sure it would be Aundair's Vietnam but they don't know that. Neither needs to come to a head within ten years. |
| #15jastermereelSep 15, 2010 18:03:06 | Thaliost may be a powder keg, but its still possible to have a high tolerance for oppression. Look at China and Taiwan with regard to Aundair and Thaliost. Could they take it? Of course. But there are unknowable reprucussions that make the status quo a preferable alternative. That was kind of my thinking on the subject. Aundair could probably invade the Eldeen Reaches and no one would resort to anything more than sabre rattling and covert aid to the Reaches. I think that's a much more preferably alternative for Aundair than reigniting the Last War over Thaliost. |
| #16Bly2729Sep 15, 2010 19:16:59 | Thaliost may be a powder keg, but its still possible to have a high tolerance for oppression. Look at China and Taiwan with regard to Aundair and Thaliost. Could they take it? Of course. But there are unknowable reprucussions that make the status quo a preferable alternative. But sending in troops to the Reaches and sending in troops and gold and troops until they go out of their friggin' minds isn't in Aundair's interest. It would be a more likely policy but its not smarter. If they definitely wanted to commit to Thaliost or the Reaches, I say Thaliost is still a smarter choice. The status quo is the optimal choice given current setting information. If you want to choose to fight guerrillas in Eldeen or sneak attack Thaliost, sneak attack Thaliost. A wide scale bombardment of spells, abjurations to keep out reinforcements, and the taking of prisoners amongst senior clergy, and a short (1-2 Day) operational timeline might convince Thrane that taking back Thaliost simply isn't worth the trouble. Especially if they can convince Karrnath to attack should Thrane attempt to retaliate elsewhere in Aundair in exchange for strengthening the Twelve or some other kind of mystical incentive. |
| #17jastermereelSep 15, 2010 22:10:03 | But sending in troops to the Reaches and sending in troops and gold and troops until they go out of their friggin' minds isn't in Aundair's interest. It would be a more likely policy but its not smarter. If they definitely wanted to commit to Thaliost or the Reaches, I say Thaliost is still a smarter choice. The status quo is the optimal choice given current setting information. If you want to choose to fight guerrillas in Eldeen or sneak attack Thaliost, sneak attack Thaliost. A wide scale bombardment of spells, abjurations to keep out reinforcements, and the taking of prisoners amongst senior clergy, and a short (1-2 Day) operational timeline might convince Thrane that taking back Thaliost simply isn't worth the trouble. Especially if they can convince Karrnath to attack should Thrane attempt to retaliate elsewhere in Aundair in exchange for strengthening the Twelve or some other kind of mystical incentive. You're almost certainly correct about that, but what's actually in Aundair's best interest and what Aundair is likely to do are not necessarily the same thing. The setting is sort of designed to allow you to push the setting in any direction you choose (which is indicative of good design, I think) so no matter what 10 year timeline you choose it'll inevitably be the result of some level of handwaving. The way I was going to justify Aundair choosing the Reaches over Thaliost (in the short term) was that they were confident that they could secure the Reaches without too much trouble from guerillas (I was, of course, going to make that confidence misplaced), but this has to do with new weaponry and a brand new centralized army over the old feudal model. |
| #18Madfox11Sep 16, 2010 3:34:50 | But Queen Aurelia wants to restore Galifar. The Eldeen Reaches are a backwater. Why start there? There is no glory, and winning does not bring her one step closer to uniting the kingdom. Once the other three kingdoms are united though, the Eldeen Reaches has no choice but to surrender. Looking at Aurelia's personality, the Eldeen Reaches seem a somewhat unlikely start to me. |
| #19hanzo187Oct 10, 2010 10:37:46 | But Queen Aurelia wants to restore Galifar. The Eldeen Reaches are a backwater. Why start there? There is no glory, and winning does not bring her one step closer to uniting the kingdom. Once the other three kingdoms are united though, the Eldeen Reaches has no choice but to surrender. Looking at Aurelia's personality, the Eldeen Reaches seem a somewhat unlikely start to me. Yes and no. The Eldeen Reaches wouldn't help Aurala restore Galifar, true, but the druidic sects of the Reaches (especially Oalian) are very powerful and repelled Aundair when they declared their independence and Aundair tried to take it back. I don't think the Reachers would surrender. I DO think Aurala would nail Thrane first because both sides have cities the other wants back. Their proximity also makes it convenient, and if Aurala can dig up enough dirt on Krozen (which the Royal Eyes might be able to accomplish), that would rip the Church of the Silver Flame (and Thrane, by extension) in two. I can also see Darguul expansion, but not by Llesh Haruuc. If you read Legacy of Dhakaan, I think his successor, being a traditionalist, will eventually lead the dar into war eventually, likely against Valenar first because of what happened in the trilogy. However, I think the Lord of Blades will be the first to make a move. I think he'll gather enough warforged to finally start his invasion, probably of the Talenta Plains first because it will be easiest, then possibly Valenar or Karrnath (probably Karrnath). And the Dreaming Dark? Well, that's a toughie. Oddly enough, they may unite with the kalashtar and the Chamber to contend with the Lords of Dusts. The Lords might find a link in the Prophecy that allows them to release the Overlords, and since the Dreaming Dark wants to keep the status quo at all costs, they may form a truce with the kalashtar (in exchange for aid, the kalashtar will no longer have to contend with them, but the kalashtar must leave Sarlona and never return) and the Chamber (kind of goes without saying, since dragons and fiends are eternal enemies) and prevent the release of the Overlords. However, I think the biggest problem will be the dragonmarked houses. I think their monopolization tactics will be taken to the extreme and they will start breaking the Korth Edicts. Given that the houses are always looking for more and more power, the Five Nations may be next. My guess is they'll use their skills to drive the Five Nations into outright bankruptcy and internal strife, giving them (or the Aurum) the chance to take the reins. Were this to happen, I believe we would see a "cyberpunk" Khorvaire. |