Post/Author/DateTime	Post
#1 rekko Mar 04, 2008 19:35:53	As we all know, King Boranel is growing older and will eventually let go his crown and/or die. Considering that Boranel's sons and daughters haven't proven yet their abilities to govern the nation. Considering people in the Parliament thriving for power by putting an end to Breland's monarchy. Considering other strong noble families who could want the crown. What do you think Breland's political future will look like? Surely quite unstable, but who do you think will win the governing title? Rekko
#2 revvecor Mar 04, 2008 20:03:24	Personally I see it devolving into a civil war between those in favor of a "parliament" and those supporting the heir or heirs. I can see one "puppet" heir rising above the rest with support from one of the other five nations or powerful group whom believe they can control the heir to their advantage. Those whom support a democracy of one kind or another, are more likely to become a socialist political/economic force as the conflict spreads. Taking civil liberties from their population to better control the country's actions and goals to fit the plans of the ruling body. I say this merely based upon my knowledge of civil wars in our own world.
#3 rekko Mar 05, 2008 6:05:05	Do you think the Blood of Vol could come before Boranel to propose him lichdom or the like? Or even Kaius could bite him in one of their meetings. Civil war is almost certain, but who do you think has the most influence then?. Rekko
#4 Syltorian Mar 05, 2008 6:41:26	Here is what I would assume would happen: As has been said, there will almost certainly be civil war between King and Parliament. Loyalty to monarchies can run very high, especially in rural areas and the army - take a look at Vendée during the French Revolution. Boranel's popularity might carry over to his heirs, even if they themselves have done nothing to deserve it. The bourgeoisie might see their chance of advancement in the new system, and is more likely to side with Parliament, as will the aristocracy who have access to Parliament and hope to advance themselves. Those lines are not clear cut, of course, and there will be fights within the cities. Parliament has to impose martial law. We are commong close to La Terreur. Initial victories go to Parliament. The royal heirs are comparatively incompetent, or at least lack-luster, and possibly divided into factions. Parliament is cunning, has experience, and has been planning for this for some time. They have support from Aundair. So, first stage: the King(s) is driven out of Wroat, and moves to a new capital, just as the Charles I moved to Oxford with loyal members of his Parliament. Alternatively, he is put under house-arrest in the palace. Now, Aundair has been supporting Parliament to stir up just such a situation. But it is not in Aurala's interest to see a democracy next door. Ideas could spread, and she has no desire to become a parade-queen like Diani of Thrane. Aurala will almost certainly support one of the Kings, possibly forging a marriage alliance. That gives her not only a puppet in Breland (remember, the King is rather lackluster), it also gives her a right to intervene in Brelish affairs without breaking Thronehold agreements. If the King was killed or imprisoned, she also has a right to intervene, as she is related to the guy. Aundair has, IMO, been preparing for this. They have plans to fight Parliament, withdraw their support from them, and could easily match or even beat back the Parliamentarians. Now Aundair risks getting control of Breland via its puppet king. Kaius cannot allow that to happen. He already has Haydith in Breland. Get her to marry another King (and get the same benefits as Aundair), or claim Parliament has threatened Haydith, and sent in a bodyguard to protect her. They can also officially recognise one of the Kings (not the one Aundair is supporting), make him appeal to Karrnath for help, and Karrnath too will have a legitimate reason to march into Breland, to confront Parliament and the pretender supported by Aundair. By now, it is a three-way fight. Karrnath' military might could be a bit hampered by the problem for that nation of getting to Breland. At this point, you have marauding armies, increased banditry, massacres of innocents, and likely increased raids from Darguun and Droaam. The Brelish armies have other problems, fighting it out amongst themselves, and often causing civilian casualties to punish supporters of the pretenders. This is ideal for Thrane. Their holy mission, while staying officially aloof of the civil war, is to aid the innocent and become peacekeepers. They defend the Treaty of Thronehold, the lives of the populace, and keep evil at bay. Thrane knights move in to restore order, and fight for the common man - if they play clever, they'll gain their own support of people fed up with all the Kings and Parliament, and who just want to get on with life. Meanwhile, one or other of the parties - probably Parliament, who are now being pressed hard, will ask for Valenar help. All factions turn to Tharashk and Deneith mercenaries. Thuranni will be hugely popular being sent to assassinate various faction leaders. Basically, this will be a miniature Last War, fought out on the territory of Breland, which will make everyone happy but the Brelish, because no other nation risks devastation. The stake is control of Breland, not of Thronehold. But he who wins here is almost certain to win the war after that, with their own nation and Breland behind them.
#5 revvecor Mar 05, 2008 11:18:11	Do you think the Blood of Vol could come before Bonanel to propose him lichdom or the like? Or even Kaius could bite him in one of their meetings. Civil war is almost certain, but who do you think has the most influence then?. Rekko I do agree with the points made by Syltorian, but in terms of who would have the most influence I would say the BoV/Emerald Claw. I say this given that they seem to have been the ones whom interfered the most in the last war, assassinating leaders of apposing countries. Plus with Breland in Civil War, the War Mongers in Karrnath will have the perfect opportunity to start up a new war.
#6 octaviusiii Mar 08, 2008 3:22:07	If Boranel is wise, he will choose an heir soon and give him (or her) increasingly more reponsibility, thus ensuring that when Boranel is gone, his heir is already in a solid position at the top. I don't think the Parliament as a whole, by any stretch, is plotting against the King. Rather, it feels like a small group of MPs that are seeking to overthrow the monarchy. At most there may be a palace coup, but I find it hard to imagine civil war between Parliament and the Crown.
#7 rekko Mar 08, 2008 7:45:48	Karrnath' military might could be a bit hampered by the problem for that nation of getting to Breland. Send the undead troops marching through the Mournland. Imagine the people of Vathirond seeing hundreds and more of Karrnathi skeletons and zombies emerging from the Dead-Grey Mist. Surely, there might be a problem with the warforged that won't necessarily authorize a safe passage through the Mournland. The Lord of Blades won't be interested in the flesh-bags civil wars, however, he might want to influence the Parliament to allow Merrix d'Cannith to produce more warforged. The warforged could in turn rise to take control of the Creation Forge by making some Cannith heir their prisoner. What about Zilargo into this? Would they let their friendly neighbor fell and be completly change without doing a thing?
#8 Syltorian Mar 08, 2008 10:43:27	If Boranel is wise, he will choose an heir soon and give him (or her) increasingly more reponsibility, thus ensuring that when Boranel is gone, his heir is already in a solid position at the top. I believe he has already tried to do that, though he has stopped short of naming them co-ruler so far. But his heirs have either proven ineffective or were killed in action (for instance, one of his sons was list when a mobile fortress attacked Darguun). Boranel could chose someone further removed from the direct line of succession, or adopt a competent commander or administrator in the way Nerva adopted Trajan, but that could stir up resentment with the people, the aristocracy, and all those who feel they should have been chosen (his children included). I don't think the Parliament as a whole, by any stretch, is plotting against the King. Rather, it feels like a small group of MPs that are seeking to overthrow the monarchy. At most there may be a palace coup, but I find it hard to imagine civil war between Parliament and the Crown. I agree that most of parliament is neutral, respectively doesn't care about the plots. Many will not even know about them. A civil war will create a split in Parliament - take the English Civil Wars: some of the Parliament did join Charles I. I do, however, think that the plotters, though few in number, wield considerable influence through personal competence, social ties and wealth. For instance, some of the ir'Tairn of Sharn are involved, and they own half the city or so. They could easily pay the army or their own mercenary companies to take on the King, and with Breland's proto-democratic ideas, they have a basis to build upon. Civil War is not unavoidable. Cutting off the heads of the rebellion before Boranel dies (or just after) will most likely prevent a coup, but the way I see it (an impression, of course) is that all that keeps Breland a monarchy at this point is Boranel's charisma. Send the undead troops marching through the Mournland. Imagine the people of Vathirond seeing hundreds and more of Karrnathi skeletons and zombies emerging from the Dead-Grey Mist. Excellent point! That solves that problem. Now I don't know what will be scarier... the people of Vathirond seeing rank upon rank of zombies marching out of the Mournland while the citizens frantically prepare their last stand... or them sending a welcoming committee and waving flags because the zombies are there to support the King who has made Vathirond his temporary capital. Surely, there might be a problem with the warforged that won't necessarily authorize a safe passage through the Mournland. The Lord of Blades won't be interested in the flesh-bags civil wars, however, he might want to influence the Parliament to allow Merrix d'Cannith to produce more warforged. The warforged could in turn rise to take control of the Creation Forge by making some Cannith heir their prisoner. Two interesting points there. The Lord of Blades might become involved, or he might bide his time as the flesh-bags are yet again killing each other. I don't see him as negotiating with one side or another, but taking advantage of the confusion to capture Cannith heirs or seize a further creation forge, that would be scary. Merrix could benefit if either Parliament or one of the Kings suspend the clause on warforged production because they need more soldiers. Of course, if that happens I still do not think Merrix would come out and say "Hey, good thing we didn't shut down that forge after all!" because that will make the other nations and Houses rather cross. On the other hand, if both Aundair and Karrnath choose their sides and participate in the Civil War, their respective Cannith factions might chose to go along and get rid of Cannith South. What about Zilargo into this? Would they let their friendly neighbor fell and be completly change without doing a thing? Who can say what the gnomes will do? I can only guess. Support all three factions, in a similar way the Inspired manage to support all of the hostile nations at the same time. Zilargo could profit from chaos in Breland by selling their services against special benefits - special treatment at customs, land concessions, acting as delegates for Breland's 'colonies' in Xen'drik. If anyone can pull off a nation's equivalent to the famous versatile politician Talleyrand, it is Zilargo.
#9 rekko Mar 08, 2008 12:32:10	You got me thinking. The Lord of Blades could promote the confusion in Breland, and thus, helping Karrnathi troops passing safely and quickly through the Mourland. After all, they aren't really flesh-bags since they are already dead. Syltorian, you mention another group that might be interested in the outcomes of Breland's future. The Inspired. On the surface, Riedran ambassadors may ask the right to send Riedran troops in Breland to assist either the King or the Parliament the same way they are doing in Q'barra, while in depths, the Dreaming Dark may have mind-seeded a few senators from the Parliament, captains from the King's Citadel, even Aundairians and Karrns to better manipulate and control the events of Khorvaire for their own profits. Rekko
#10 griff_goodbeard Mar 10, 2008 17:49:05	Syltorian, you mention another group that might be interested in the outcomes of Breland's future. The Inspired. On the surface, Riedran ambassadors may ask the right to send Riedran troops in Breland to assist either the King or the Parliament the same way they are doing in Q'barra, while in depths, the Dreaming Dark may have mind-seeded a few senators from the Parliament, captains from the King's Citadel, even Aundairians and Karrns to better manipulate and control the events of Khorvaire for their own profits. Rekko I like this idea. I'd been thinking about doing something similar in my Eberron.
#11 davethebrave371 Mar 11, 2008 2:34:36	One thing about your awesome initial post, Syltorian: Aurala is already married, and I don't think she has any kids that aren't exiles, IIRC.
#12 julescarv Mar 11, 2008 5:13:36	I don't really see why Breland would have a civil war over the issue. After all, there's nothing deeply dividing the Brelish populace like the Catholicism of the Stuart monarchy vs. the protestantism of Parliamentary forces. It doesn't seem like many average Brelish subjects really have any reason to fight their neighbors (such as religious division as in Stuart England, contemporary Iraq, and the partition-era Indian subcontinent, the slavery issue in the U.S., ethnic/class divisions in Rwanda, etc). If anything, it seems like Breland has the second most institutionalized, impersonal basis for stability of the five nations (the first most being Thrane). Boranel may be popular, but I think he's probably, if anything, less necessary to keeping Breland "working" than Aurala is to keeping Aundair working or Kaius keeping Karrnath working. The monarchy might be abolished after Boranel's death, or might not, but I can't say I see a civil war as likely -- at least, as any more likely than in, say, Aundair after Aurala dies.
#13 Syltorian Mar 11, 2008 6:39:26	One thing about your awesome initial post, Syltorian: Aurala is already married, and I don't think she has any kids that aren't exiles, IIRC. I don't know where that quote was, and I am in a bit of a hurry at the moment - but wasn't there a mention somewhere that Aurala refused to participate in the exchange of heirs proposed by Kaius III? Plus there's Wrey and Wrel, Aurala's younger sisters. They do not seem to be married... although less ideal if Aundair wants to annex Breland by royal union. Jules, good points. You are right that the populace at large has no reason to hate the monarchy, whoever is in charge, or to either love or hate Parliament. But I'd still think there are good reasons why there could be a civil war. I'm counting on three things here: innate loyalty to the monarchy of the populace who have nothing in common with the bourgeoise and aristocratic parliament, but love their King (whoever he is); overbearing behaviour of the Parliament which may profit the city-based elites but ignores the rural community, and last but not least, conspiracies by the Royal Eyes (amongst others - the Inspired could benefit from this a lot, as was mentioned above) to push Breland into Civil War. I agree that Parliament will abolish monarchy in a peaceful way... but I believe the heirs will refuse to go. When Thrane abolished monarchy, Civil War was avoided because the king gave in, partly to save Thrane as it was in the middle of foreign wars already. If Breland's monarch refuses to be deposed, and his advisors who benefit from his position will advise him to refuse, you have a problem. ou'd start off with a small scale private battle, but with the right support from various nations and organisations and the use of private armies, Breland could easily slip into war, even if people do not care that much. Except that they get massacred. The actual fighting would be mostly carried out by mercenaries and foreign supporters, like Aundair or Karrnath, until the Brelish suffer enough to align with whatever party (in that particular area of the country) was harming them least. Whether that's Parliament, one of the Heirs, or Thranish peace-keepers is going to vary.
#14 octaviusiii Mar 12, 2008 21:32:00	I dunno, the scenarios for civil war still feel a lot more like a large-scale coup-d'etat than a full-on civil war. It might be messy, like in Romania after the fall of communism, but civil war requires faultlines that transcend politics like religion or economics. I suppose, though, that it might reach the level of armies marching against each other, but it would be the sort of "war" that would be decided by only one or two key battles over the course of a month rather than broad strategic planning over the course of years.
#15 Syltorian Mar 13, 2008 6:05:28	I dunno, the scenarios for civil war still feel a lot more like a large-scale coup-d'etat than a full-on civil war. It might be messy, like in Romania after the fall of communism, but civil war requires faultlines that transcend politics like religion or economics. The Brelish 'lack' of religion is indeed a problem. But while Breland might not be big on religion, but there is ideology. Monarchy against Democracy (or, rather, Oligarchy). Both can be strong concepts. Look at the French Revolution: many peasants, especially in Vendée, were loyal to the King as well as, admittedly, to Roman Catholicism - they wanted to keep their old ways. The young French Republic had to prove their power, and had introduced ideas that the Vendée did not like... and this led to massacres on both sides. Naturally, the situation is not a perfect mirror. So let us look at Eberron. Ccompare it to Thrane and its Throneholders. As I mentioned above, Thrane was spared Civil War only because the King gave in... and both sides were followers of the Silver Flame, so religion was not a factor. If Breland's heir is less selfish (or more assertive, depending on how you judge Thalin's successor) than this, armies begin to march, and supporters in the country will be appealed to. At this point, common people do not become involved, except when an army passes through their village; a few fanatics of both sides may stir up trouble, but that's it. Economics, however, are a factor which exists: the bourgeoisie and aristocracy of the cities against the farmers and the rural nobles. I see the split between the Parliament and the Monarch also as a split of the 'new' ideas of the cities against the (often) traditional countryside. Breland is perhaps the most industrial of the Five Nations, but it also features large stretches of agricultural land. The cities want their privileges increased, the country wants to keep living as they were, without being exploited by the cities. Rural aristocracy fears to be sidelined by the urban elite... a divide that, as I see it, already exists, but the monarchy has so far managed to smooth this over. My impression is that Boranel, and previous royals, were kind rulers. My impression is also that the Parliamentarians plotting against their king are self-serving men without scruples who will start an oligarchy that harms Breland's ideals of freedom more than it helps them. The Swords of Liberty will be disappointed. A tyranny of a few will replace an enlightened Parliamentary Monarchy. My impression is just that, of course: an impression, not a truth I can quote. It is, of course, also a development I want for story reasons, though I would not want it to be ever addressed in official materials, as one day I (and you today) may want to go with another future. I expect Parliament to raise taxes, try to regulate the country and to centralise, tear down statues of the nation's beloved monarchs, increase industry at the cost of agriculture, sell positions to tax-farmers and unscrupulous individuals, be more open to bribery, and generally make life very hard for people who are not of their own milieu. Those are often economical reasons, but they will hurt many. Once Parliament hits problems, such as some opposition from a King who does not want to abdicate, the situation will grow worse. They can introduce conscription and confiscations for their defence, persecute those who say over a drink that Boranel was a good king, and so forth. If people refuse centralisation and other changes, Parliament might over-react, trying to prove their authority by force since they cannot do so by precedent. In the worst case - unlikely in the initial stages at least - you could get the French "La Terreur". And, to come back to it, there is considerable covert action by the other nations stirring up the fires. They want a Civil War in Breland, and can support the Swords of Loyalty as well as fanatical monarchist groups. Aundair is certainly doing this. I'd be surprised if Karrnath doesn't. I'm fairly convinced the Inspired are pretty deep into it as well, as mentioned in previous posts. All of these are pretty good at propaganda. And they've had time working at this. By the time Boranel dies, people will have been exposed to a lot of ideas like this. Some, my argument is based on: 1) Country-City Divide, with loyalty to the King strong in the country. 2) The ideal of Enlightened Monarchy being almost 'religion' for some Brelish. 3) Important parliamentarians being self-serving with no interest in the People. 4) Outside forces actively laying the foundations for civil war. 5) If required, outside forces laying these foundations in dreams. I suppose, though, that it might reach the level of armies marching against each other, but it would be the sort of "war" that would be decided by only one or two key battles over the course of a month rather than broad strategic planning over the course of years. It depends on how strong loyalty to the King is in the general population, how much excesses Parliament commits, and how good the warmongering of the other nations turns out to be. Those are, I know, lots of 'depends'. If the people in general do not care either way, if Parliament continues without making any major changes, and if people shrug their shoulders are Royal Eyes operatives, there will be one or two major battles waged by mercenaries or foreign armies, and that will be it. Provided these armies are restrained and don't torch a few villages while they are at it (or after they are defeated) - that sort of thing creates resentment. Otherwise, you get peasant revolts, rallies to one or the other of the Kings or Parliament, increasing interventions by other nations, the independence of New Cyre, the declaration of Martial Law, old grudges springing up between rival villages, based on land-rights or other feuds long forgotten, taking advantage of the warring factions... the situation does not have to escalate this far, but it is conceivable that it could. Your proposition is certainly possible, perhaps even more probable. It could also lead to an adventure such as Xenophon's Anabasis... the PCs are part of a mercenary army which finds itself on the losing side of the purely mercenary conflict deep within Breland, and now they must make their way out of the country, pursued by the victorious army.
#16 gospodin_i Mar 13, 2008 9:22:24	This is a very interesting topic and since I started a campaign planning to use the whole "Parliamentary plot" thing in it I might get to use a lot of the things in it. However, now that I have more knowledge of the whole plot thing and of Eberron in general I do not think it is very well formulated. Here's why: Firstly in order to replace something entrenched as deeply as a 1000-year-old monarchy with strong ties to the crown of Galifar, etc. you'll need something better than a couple of power-hungry nobles like Lord ir'Clarn (Brelish PM). After all all countries have had weak monarchs and just because monarchies did not disappear. You'll need something more defining than this. Since I'm a social-sciences graduate (politics) I know that it takes a very deep divide (or cleavage) in society and this just doesn't exist in Breland. A lot of people mentioned here the French Revolution and tried to give example with the same type of cleavage between urban-rural populations in Breland. You will also need a situation of crisis in order for the whole thing to work. In the case of Breland you have fairly good economic situation (unlike Karrnath for example), a sense of pride and trust in the monarchy among ordinary people (both in cities and in rural areas) and also a lot of outside enemies which tends to make societies more homogenic on the inside and therefore stops such kinds of conflicts from erupting.
#17 rekko Mar 13, 2008 10:47:11	Here's your crisis. The Daughters of Sora Kell would like to unite all monsters of Droaam under one banner to fortify their nation. For that, they could attack one common enemy: Breland. However, Breland is now strong and quick to reply to any treat. Or it could be anybody else that needs to manipulate the politics of Breland. Inspired, New Cyre, Aundair, etc. So, with the goal to weaken Breland, the Hags(or other) bribe unscrupulous politicians to present and vote a few laws that look quite fine, but are truly complicated and ties the Parliament or the King when making crucial decisions such as imposing Martial Law and organizing troops. A bit like Palpatine did to become Galactic Emperor, but the goal would be to tie up the head of Breland. So, politicians pass their awkward laws, other politician groups and the monarchy observe what's happening and begin to realize what the Parliament is doing. At this point, the monarchy will try to intervene in the decisions, but is cast aside by the new laws. Persistent, Boranel will try to force the Parliament's decisions somehow by trying to vote in the Parliament. However, by that time, he will have lost the right to participate in such ways to an assembly and will be arrested. (Similarly to when Katsumoto, in the Last Samurai, refuses to be parted of his sword.) That's when population arises. Aundair is called for help by the Parliament, Karrnath is called by the monarchy, etc. Rekko
#18 julescarv Mar 13, 2008 13:58:56	Personally, I don't think of typical Brelish people as having much loyalty to either parliament or the monarchy as institutions. Rather, most of them have a personal affection for King Boranel. If Boranel's successor is a generally good king, but parliament is filled with corrupt cronies who are constantly passing laws granting legal monopolies to their friends in business or the like, I think that the king could probably use some dubiously legal maneuver to stuff parliament with handpicked, newly-made nobles to support him and put an end to the giveaways and pass laws expanding suffrage to weaken the MPs' position, and most of the Brelish people would say "good for king Halix" or whatever, and only a small minority would object to the king's bending of the laws to stuff parliament and such. If Boranel's successor marries Oargev's daughter (supposing he has one), claims that she (and he by marriage) is the one true heir to the throne of Galifar, and starts sabre-rattling and appearing to be about to restart the Last War, while King Kaius III manages to rope the Thranish, Aundairans, Darguul, and Zil into a big self-defense pact promising to respond to Brelish aggression as a united front, but the Brelish king isn't deterred and seems to be en route to taking the country into a disastrous, bloody, and unwinnable war, so parliament either abolishes or drastically restricts the monarchy to figurehead status and starts making amends with the other nations of Khorvaire, then I think most of the Brelish people would say "good for parliament," and only a small minority would object to the diminution or abolition of the monarchy. Now, one might look at other scenarios: what if Boranel's successor is widely unpopular and most people side with parliament, but rather than the parliament getting rid of him, he dissolves parliament and attempts to rule by royal decree? Or, what if Boranel's successor is widely popular and most people don't like parliament, but parliament tries to abolish the monarchy anyway? Well, that would be a stickier situation. However, one must bear in mind that in a country like Breland, the unpopular party trying to get rid of the more popular one -- the one that, in some ways, legitimizes the Brelish state as a whole in the eyes of most Brelish people -- would be in a position of weakness. I think that the Brelish are generally pragmatists, and they mostly care more about how their government works in practice than whether it is constituted as a monarchy or republic. Whether the monarch or the parliament seems to be best depends on the specific monarch and the specific parliament. Boranel is a widely beloved king, but would Halix (or whoever) be? That depends on the specific circumstances of Breland and the specific way he rules.
#19 octaviusiii Mar 14, 2008 3:46:55	Don't forget that under a Parliamentary system, the King has veto power, as well as the power to appoint or dissolve government, as well as "His Majesty's Official Opposition". Now that I've thought about it a bit more, I think the only way for a civil war to occur is a wretchedly self-serving and dictatorial king and an accompanying reign of terror against his "enemies." That would create the cleavages and crises necessary for an event as dramatic as a civil war, although even then it would take a lot. The most an outside power could do is cause instability, but I don't think anyone has enough power to overthrow the monarchy, at least not without help from some pretty spectacular events.
#20 gospodin_i Mar 14, 2008 9:03:38	Don't forget that under a Parliamentary system, the King has veto power, as well as the power to appoint or dissolve government, as well as "His Majesty's Official Opposition". Now that I've thought about it a bit more, I think the only way for a civil war to occur is a wretchedly self-serving and dictatorial king and an accompanying reign of terror against his "enemies." That would create the cleavages and crises necessary for an event as dramatic as a civil war, although even then it would take a lot. The most an outside power could do is cause instability, but I don't think anyone has enough power to overthrow the monarchy, at least not without help from some pretty spectacular events. VERY well concluded! THUMBS UP
#21 davethebrave371 Mar 14, 2008 14:20:46	Don't forget that under a Parliamentary system, the King has veto power, as well as the power to appoint or dissolve government, as well as "His Majesty's Official Opposition". Now that I've thought about it a bit more, I think the only way for a civil war to occur is a wretchedly self-serving and dictatorial king and an accompanying reign of terror against his "enemies." That would create the cleavages and crises necessary for an event as dramatic as a civil war, although even then it would take a lot. The most an outside power could do is cause instability, but I don't think anyone has enough power to overthrow the monarchy, at least not without help from some pretty spectacular events. Well, I think in a world of magic, spectacular events don't even have to be flashy (mind affecting spells, subtle illusions, etc). Not to mention that the veto power and the power to appoint/dissolve didn't work out so well for Charles I. That aside (as it's a totally different situation from Boranel dying vs. Charles I powergrabbing), even just reading Sharn: City of Towers and reading about the sort of resources able to be commanded by this faction at this point in time in that city alone have got me thinking about what could end up causing a level of instability that could cause a civil war, and I think it'd be in too many powerful factions benefit (and powerful individuals as well) to not stir up shizt to the point where a civil war is not only possible, but almost inevitable. Hass ir'Tain alone could fund enough of an incident within the first week of the new King/Queen's crowning that the Citadel/Monarchy will be seen as ineffective, weak and useless by comparison to the rich ir'Clarn supporters (in particular the ir'Tains) who rally their funds around some damage control that does the job, voted in by Parliament. And that's just one thing. When the factions start getting involved, it gets nasty. The Dreaming Dark gets wind of something that could a) de-stabilize one nation and b) tangle up other nation's eyes and resources elsewhere, and all of a sudden the placement of a council member, head of the Blackened Book and the infiltration of Deneith in Sharn seems even more scary than it already does. And that's just one faction causing extra trouble in one city based on the action of one person who supports the anti-Monarchists.
#22 octaviusiii Mar 15, 2008 16:20:09	Shadows big enough to hide large events in are harder to manufacture than I think even the ir'Tains realize. At every level there must be secrecy - nobody leaves a trail, nobody leaves a fingerprint, and nobody wants to talk to the press. Even if the factions united (probably unlikely) to somehow secretly create a spectacular, destabilizing event that gave them some excuse to field an anti-monarchist army, they would have only the slimmest window of opportunity. If they do not win one of the first two battles, they're done. If they take more than a year to win, they're done. They would have to rely on the passion of the moment, which is tenuous at best. As well, such powerful individuals have some to gain but everything to lose. If the monarchists were to be victorious over the upstarts, they would stand to lose all their power, prestige and property. Indeed, they may even be executed for high treason. It would be dangerous, to say the least. If there were a concerted effort on the part of all the anti-monarchist factions to do everything they could to destroy the government, they could. I'm saying the real costs, potential consequences, stability of the current situation, lack of popular support, lack of casus belli and lack of cooperation between the factions is too great to allow something like this to happen on any scale larger than a coup attempt.
#23 davethebrave371 Mar 15, 2008 17:25:28	Shadows big enough to hide large events in are harder to manufacture than I think even the ir'Tains realize. At every level there must be secrecy - nobody leaves a trail, nobody leaves a fingerprint, and nobody wants to talk to the press. Making those sorts of shadows is exactly the business of orgs like the Aurum, the Dreaming Dark, the Emerald Claw, the Royal Eyes, etc. And my point was that just one could cause enough of a "shadow", as you put it, to mask and even enhance any event caused by a private individual with wealth like Hass ir'Tain (who, in Sharn:CoT, is explicitly stated as being someone willing to do anything to put the Parliament in power, regardless of the personal consequences to himself, as he believes in it as a righteous and just cause). And of course, Hass is just one person. My point is that with all the various individuals aligned together under the banner of the anti-Monarchists, things would get done regardless of organizational involvement. You pop in just the Dreaming Dark, and that shadow is big enough to hide a continent-wide war between more than five Kingdoms (some of which were bound to be much less vulnerable than Breland is currently to internal strife), culminating in a complete take-over of said continent. More than enough ability, skill and experience to do one little country. And that's before the other orgs jump in. Even if the factions united (probably unlikely) to somehow secretly create a spectacular, destabilizing event that gave them some excuse to field an anti-monarchist army, they would have only the slimmest window of opportunity. If they do not win one of the first two battles, they're done. If they take more than a year to win, they're done. They would have to rely on the passion of the moment, which is tenuous at best. The factions don't need to unite. The DD has the same goals as the Royal Eyes, so things simply get done in favour of the anti-Monarchists. Sora Teraza could see an outcome favourable to Droaam's expansion/whatever their goals are in the Parliament gaining control, and there's Daask causing a ruckus until anti-Monarchist backed forces "quell" them. From the point of view of everyone (including the rank and file of Daask), the problem was real, and the Crown's efforts were for naught. The DD wouldn't even know that this was anything more than an additional boon they didn't have to engineer caused by a criminal gang. Again, I think there is very little in the situation of Boranel's death and anti-Monarchist rise to power that would not have every player possible deeply involved. The only ones I could imagine remaining "neutral" would be the Houses, who would just provide services to all sides to make some more cash. In fact, if the Parliament promised Kundarak a payback of wartime loans should they get in power, Kundarak might refuse Crown requests for loans on the basis of past due balance in their accounts, and that's just one scenario with one house that came to me literally as I was typing. As well, such powerful individuals have some to gain but everything to lose. If the monarchists were to be victorious over the upstarts, they would stand to lose all their power, prestige and property. Indeed, they may even be executed for high treason. It would be dangerous, to say the least. If there were a concerted effort on the part of all the anti-monarchist factions to do everything they could to destroy the government, they could. I'm saying the real costs, potential consequences, stability of the current situation, lack of popular support, lack of casus belli and lack of cooperation between the factions is too great to allow something like this to happen on any scale larger than a coup attempt. Well, as I mentioned earlier about Hass, he believes strongly that Parliamentary government is the way of the future, and doesn't care what he has to lose. It's right there in Sharn:CoT, and there are doubtless others in equivalent positions of wealth and power that feel the same. To be honest, the danger present in the Cromwellian era was just as real, and there were some people just as strongly opposed to the idea itself, not just the reality of Charles making grabs for power. To itemize your points, the real costs could be offset with the right backers. The potential consequences don't matter enough to some, and to others would cease to matter with every Parliamentary victory (and not necessarily over the Monarchists directly, but even just quelling a Daask-fueled chaos across Breland). As for casus belli, there are many who believe there is already that justification, and should Boranel die and the Parliament make a grab for it, the various factions would have their own justifications independent of anything else to secretly back either side. I think Syltorian's posts already gave lots of casus belli, and he barely scratched the surface. And as to cooperation between factions, that would hurt both sides, as there would be multiple outside forces backing both the Crown and the Parliament, and on each side there would be no communication between the various factions, and in many cases (the DD in particular), there would be no trace before, during or after...except, of course, if a lucky, plucky and brave group of adventurers solves the mystery during the course of the conflict (or perhaps stems it in a manner in which you speak of by virtue of their investigations). I'd say your concept of how the situation would go is pretty much contingent on an adventure, at least from a gaming perspective. Otherwise, there'd be little to no chance of most of the factions being found out, and those that were found out would be found out too late, or else the same could be said of the other side. Monarchist: "You're backed by the Royal Eyes! Everyone knows it!" Anti-Monarchist: "Oh, and Rekkenmark hasn't sent its best and brightest at the behest of Kaius himself?" Ad infinitum, ad naseum.
#24 octaviusiii Mar 15, 2008 19:01:50	I think you and I have different views of the current state of internal politics of Breland. I don't deny that there are powerful forces that could be at work to change the face of the Brelish government, but I don't think that they are enough to unseat what I see as a popular, entrenched, 1000-year-old institution in a civil war. I see them as enough to launch a coup attempt, which would achieve the same end of overthrowing the monarchy, but I don't see it as enough to throw the whole country into civil war. The reason I discounted Hass and others in powerful places was because I don't see their chances as that good, and thus I don't think they see their chances as that good, and so I don't think they'd act until there was greater certainty. Hass is willing to risk everything, but he's no fool and will wait until the time is right. If the nation were more unstable, or if there was a passionate and popular movement against the monarchy, then I would agree with you whole-heartedly. Thus far, though, it feels like the anti-monarchists are largely part of the powerful classes and not the populace as a whole. That's not to say, of course, that there wouldn't be powerful interests vying for influence in the succession in the background...
#25 davethebrave371 Mar 16, 2008 11:43:16	I think you and I have different views of the current state of internal politics of Breland. I don't deny that there are powerful forces that could be at work to change the face of the Brelish government, but I don't think that they are enough to unseat what I see as a popular, entrenched, 1000-year-old institution in a civil war. I see them as enough to launch a coup attempt, which would achieve the same end of overthrowing the monarchy, but I don't see it as enough to throw the whole country into civil war. The reason I discounted Hass and others in powerful places was because I don't see their chances as that good, and thus I don't think they see their chances as that good, and so I don't think they'd act until there was greater certainty. Hass is willing to risk everything, but he's no fool and will wait until the time is right. If the nation were more unstable, or if there was a passionate and popular movement against the monarchy, then I would agree with you whole-heartedly. Thus far, though, it feels like the anti-monarchists are largely part of the powerful classes and not the populace as a whole. That's not to say, of course, that there wouldn't be powerful interests vying for influence in the succession in the background... I could see their being a passionate and popular movement against the monarchy if someone like, say, the Dreaming Dark were to give Parliament conclusive proof of other orgs' involvement in influencing the succession.
#26 Syltorian Mar 16, 2008 16:23:18	I don't deny that there are powerful forces that could be at work to change the face of the Brelish government, but I don't think that they are enough to unseat what I see as a popular, entrenched, 1000-year-old institution in a civil war. That is one point where we have different views on the situation in Breland. I believe that the traditions are entrenched enough to keep the Loyalists fighting against the Parliamentarians, but I also consider these traditions failing enough to make the Parliamentarians able have their own successful cause. First, about the 1000 year old institution: that's the Kingdom of Galifar. Breland itself has been a monarchy for about 100 years. Galifar is gone. Ever since Breland refused to acknowledge the rightful heir, and it did so because Wroann wanted Parliamentary monarchy. So, for 100 years, you have the loss of one tradition, replaced by increasing interest in Parliamentary rule - the Brelish have already broken with tradition. They also have seen precedents. The Eldeen Reaches have rejected the line of Wynarn, as has Thrane. Both may be considered either barbarians or silly fanatics, but another nation has done quite well under a non-monarchic system: Zilargo. The gnomes are an economical powerhouse. The richer elements of Brelish society might want to emulate this. They might simply want to get rid of the feudal elements which have been slowly eroded since Wroann at the very least, and continue to be. All Breland needs is to take a larger step on the road it is already walking on. Monarchy also let to a long, disastrous war. Dozens of people died and the country is still in financial difficulty because a few individuals could not decide who would sit in Thronehold. Crystalfall might not have happened but for the quarrelling monarchs. People, like the Swords of Liberty, could well argue that way, and conclude that monarchy is a bad thing. Is the Monarchy popular? Sure. Otherwise, there would be no civil war either. There'd just be a Republic. So let us say that the population in general is monarchist. I agree that the anti-monarchists are usually members of the 'powerful classes'. But that is it. They are the powerful classes. The population in general is not as rich as the Parliamentarians. They are farmers and workers. Parliament and its supporters can call on mercenary troops against loyalist guerillas. Better equipped, better trained, better supported troops against untrained partisans. They are more likely to have warmages, including diviners for spying out their enemies, thus negating a major advantage of guerilla troops. You'd get peasant revolts put down with increasing cruelty and bloodshed by the new rulers. Who can win a war like this? In the French Revolution, the guerillas were mostly quashed. In a rather bloody fashion. Parliament stands a pretty good chance, I'd say. Not enough to have a secure victory, but enough to risk the clash. You also mentioned above that civil war could result from a "wretchedly self-serving and dictatorial king and an accompanying reign of terror against his "enemies."" I agree, except on one detail: I don't see why it should only happen if the King is dictatorial. If the PM, Protector of the Realm, President, or whatever you call him is, you'd have a similar situation. In France, La Terreur happened under the Republic, not under the King. Cromwell was also not one of the nicest people known to history. And that is what I see as happening. Parliament will become overbearing pretty quick. They will be self-serving and dictatorial, destroying whoever they think might be an enemy. New regimes unfortunately often end up doing this. And, as Dave has said, there is the subtle influence of other groups. Aundair's Royal Eyes are very good at what they are doing. They've dedicated a lot of energy to set Breland to explode after Boranel dies. I would not underestimate the perfidy of Aundair, or, say, it's ambassadors to Sharn. Or, again as Dave said, the Dreaming Dark. And for another conflicts in Breland: Sharn was forced to submit to Wroat, before Galifar, admittedly, but resentment might linger. If not, would a large, prosperous and glamorous city like Sharn really want to play second fiddle, politically, to Wroat? I could see all of Sharn secede from the King pretty rapidly, with the Capital moved to this city which represents the new ideals. With the ir'Tairns so prominent, that does not seem an impossible scenario to me.
#27 octaviusiii Mar 16, 2008 17:07:52	Oh yes, Parliamentary rule would be quite... uncivil... were they to overthrow the monarchy: the leader of the anti-monarchists is LE, after all. If the crown is overthrown in a coup, leading to a reign of terror by the Parliament, that would probably be enough to cause civil war and general anarchy a la the French Revolution under Robspierre. But a civil war will not presage the end of the Crown. By the way, my impression of Galifar was that it was a federal kingdom, if that makes any sense, where Thronehold wielded central authority but that certain powers were given to the Five Nations and their kings. Of course, my impression could have been wrong.
#28 julescarv Mar 16, 2008 17:41:54	Considering that we're talking about after Boranel has shuffled off of the scene, this might be after Ruken ir'Clarn is no longer involved either. Who knows? Maybe he gets caught sucking dreamlily off of the toes of a hooker and retreats to private life. Or maybe he's retired. Or maybe he was killed by Dhakaani assassins while in Darguun as part of a diplomatic delegation. Maybe the new leader of the Brelish republicans is NG. Or maybe she's CE. Or maybe Ruken ir'Clarn is still alive and kicking, and he does his best to become the new prime minister, but he looses in internal parliamentary politics to someone else. Ruken wants to become the leader of a hypothetical Brelish republic, but that doesn't mean he will. Also, what if we think of Breland not as analogous to pre-revolutionary France, but to pre-absolutist France? Maybe the power of non-royal instittutions is not pointing toward a future as a modern constitutional monarchy or republic, but pointing toward a past as a feudal, corporatist state with a weak monarchy? Maybe Breland's next step after Boranel isn't Robespierre or Cromwell, but Richelieu or Louis XIV? Maybe Breland's next king, after Boranel, will make an effort to diminish the importance of parliament, reducing it to something like the estates-general, rein in the nobility, and establish a powerful, centralized state with power centralized in the throne and a powerful secret police network shutting down republican newspapers and arresting dissidents? I'm not saying that's how things will be. I'm just saying that that's a possible route.
#29 davethebrave371 Mar 17, 2008 3:22:35	Oh yes, Parliamentary rule would be quite... uncivil... were they to overthrow the monarchy: the leader of the anti-monarchists is LE, after all. If the crown is overthrown in a coup, leading to a reign of terror by the Parliament, that would probably be enough to cause civil war and general anarchy a la the French Revolution under Robspierre. But a civil war will not presage the end of the Crown. Couldn't agree more, on all points. By the way, my impression of Galifar was that it was a federal kingdom, if that makes any sense, where Thronehold wielded central authority but that certain powers were given to the Five Nations and their kings. Of course, my impression could have been wrong. Yeah, it was. That's been over and done for the past 102 years now.
#30 davethebrave371 Mar 17, 2008 3:25:13	And for another conflicts in Breland: Sharn was forced to submit to Wroat, before Galifar, admittedly, but resentment might linger. If not, would a large, prosperous and glamorous city like Sharn really want to play second fiddle, politically, to Wroat? I could see all of Sharn secede from the King pretty rapidly, with the Capital moved to this city which represents the new ideals. With the ir'Tairns so prominent, that does not seem an impossible scenario to me. Actually, I hadn't thought of that. What I had thought of was those council members (one was the radical one from Lower Central, the other was one of the Upper district members) who subscribe to the belief that Sharn should be its own independent nation-state, seperate from Breland. Sort of a Quebecois-esque separatist movement, although with the important distinction that all the Houses would love to see a Stormreach analogue on Khorvairian soil, and might work in concert to see that happen.
#31 Syltorian Mar 17, 2008 5:33:32	Oh yes, Parliamentary rule would be quite... uncivil... were they to overthrow the monarchy: the leader of the anti-monarchists is LE, after all. If the crown is overthrown in a coup, leading to a reign of terror by the Parliament, that would probably be enough to cause civil war and general anarchy a la the French Revolution under Robspierre. But a civil war will not presage the end of the Crown. That would be my point. I'd like to have adventures set under a Terreur ambiance in Breland. And I agree that Civil War will not mean the end of the Crown: I expect people to rally around the good (well, less bad) King, provided he escapes Parliament in time. Such a scenario could also turn Parliament against itself. If ir'Clair and ir'Tarn try to eliminate each other, as Robbespierre and Danton and their fellows tried, Aundair will get fits of laughter. By the way, my impression of Galifar was that it was a federal kingdom, if that makes any sense, where Thronehold wielded central authority but that certain powers were given to the Five Nations and their kings. Of course, my impression could have been wrong. Your impression seems correct, as far as I can tell. It seems to be one of the reasons the Last War could happen: the nations were distinct enough to matter. I have never understood why the succession functioned for 1000 years the way it did, though, if you really tell the sub-monarchs to make place for the new High King's heirs... I'm not saying that's how things will be. I'm just saying that that's a possible route. Those are interesting possibilities. Each of them could lead to Civil War, especially when the new King tries to dissolve Parliament (which might be a logical choice for a less competent King faced with plots). If ir'Clarn is gotten rid of before Boranel dies, the new PM might quite well be a Richelieu too, and keep the King around as an easily influenced puppet. For the religious twist, I wonder what would happen if the new King had become a member, without anyone knowing it, of a Radiant Cult.
#32 davethebrave371 Mar 17, 2008 12:03:58	For the religious twist, I wonder what would happen if the new King had become a member, without anyone knowing it, of a Radiant Cult. It would be especially interesting if it was one of the rare good Radiant Cults, so it would create a scandal and uproar if found out, but the idol himself represents something like Healing or Life or Good.
#33 octaviusiii Mar 17, 2008 22:33:53	Okay, so we seem to have arrived at some sort of consensus? Civil war can happen, but it doesn't have to be the cause of the fall of the monarchy, rather the result of a paranoid, evil PM's reign of terror after the coup.
#34 rekko Mar 18, 2008 7:16:01	It was mentioned that Sharn could undergo a separatist movement. How would you imagine the impacts of such a movement. If it wins, looses, who are the leaders, etc.? Rekko
#35 davethebrave371 Mar 18, 2008 11:33:53	Okay, so we seem to have arrived at some sort of consensus? Civil war can happen, but it doesn't have to be the cause of the fall of the monarchy, rather the result of a paranoid, evil PM's reign of terror after the coup. Well, it doesn't have to be the cause of the fall. So yeah, I agree. But it could be.
#36 octaviusiii Mar 19, 2008 2:12:15	Well, it doesn't have to be the cause of the fall. So yeah, I agree. But it could be. Yay for agreeing to disagree.
#37 davethebrave371 Mar 19, 2008 11:15:09	Yay for agreeing to disagree. Well technically I was just agreeing, since there was nothing about your statement I disagreed with. But it seems that when talking about possible futures in any given setting, agreeing to disagree is all you can do if there's a difference of opinion, given Rule 0. Any DM could just say that it'd be a peaceful transition to Parliamentary rule and nothing bad happens and Ruken loses and someone nice wins and everyone cheers and is happy. D&D, by default, is an agreement to disagree.
#38 llazaarprince Mar 31, 2008 10:49:10	Great thread guys. I am making the first leg of my campaign revolve around exactly this and I've seen alot of people here thinking the things I have and some real great points of view that will help me develop this alot. I am going to revolve the first chunk of the campaign (lvls1-5) around election year in Sharn(always cool to mirror real life stuff). Its the first true election since the war ended and the anti-crown forces are hell bent on taking an outright domiant ruling majority in Parliament and City Council. Like you guys mentioned, the anti-crown crew is not acting in complete synchronization or even in direct alliance. Controlling Sharn is clearly the big battle for political control in Breland. The spark for Brelanders to idly watch as their good king is politically couped is democracy. When the Pc's arrive in the city they are met by brimstone orators making their case for democracy. Democracy is the buzz word in every tavern, every street corner. Of course the ones backing the democratic movement are the anti-crown movers within Parliament who have put up candidates to run against the pro-crown crowd and will run a very dirty campaign to win. Under neath the word and pen being fought in debate halls and the papers is a battle for Sharn's underground. The anti-crown Daask backed by Sora Kell suddenly count an obscene amount of vampires amongst them( a BoV alliance of sorts) and are putting a major hurt on the pro-crown Boromar Clan(they are doing quite well under the crown thank you). They are clearing house on the streets and taking aim at the power base of the Boromar backed Parliament members. The Sharn Watch is paralyzed and divided as its corrupted roots pull it to act in different directions in a completely haphazard way. The Houses also take sides, unoficially of course. Phiarlan, Medani, and Cannith are pro crown. Thuranni is actively anti while Denieth is passively Anti. Of course with Thuranni and Phiarlan the double agents and agents hired by opposite sides abound. In House Cannith , the other 2 Cannith factions plot against crown from afar. Add a dash of the Aurum, with members on both sides of it. Add dozens of Inquisitives scooping up dirt on Parliament and City Council candidates on behalf of both sides to influence the campaign. Add in a gnome from the university that wants to reopen an archealogical expedition that met a grizzly end just before the war and has sponsers on both sides. Add in the Dark Lanterns deployed in great #'s to defend the Crown's interests and peace on the streets. Add in a dragon that lives in the Cogs for mysterious reasons. The characters can take either side or neither. They could have a very small effect on the outcome or be the X factor that decides it. Election day itself promises to be filled with violence and fraud. Thoughts? Oh yeah. Kinda at the center of it all I have a prostitutes and escorts guild(the middle to higher end ones) based out of lower Menthis. They have been under Boromar Clan rule and were looking to become more independent. However the Daask invasion has complicated matters. They have ties to House Phiarlan and have dozens of juicy tidbits about the candidates. One of the chars is actually a bard that seeks entry to this guild.
#39 davethebrave371 Apr 04, 2008 14:05:04	Great thread guys. I am making the first leg of my campaign revolve around exactly this and I've seen alot of people here thinking the things I have and some real great points of view that will help me develop this alot. I don't want to say too much because my players read these boards, and one in particular I know has been reading this thread, but a similar (not identical by any means) idea has been brewing in my head for a 4e kick-off. I'm mulling over whether I want that to be the kick-off, or something to weave in with other quests and adventures and mysteries.
#40 fharfhar Apr 07, 2008 1:27:18	I don't want to say too much because my players read these boards, and one in particular I know has been reading this thread, but a similar (not identical by any means) idea has been brewing in my head for a 4e kick-off. I'm mulling over whether I want that to be the kick-off, or something to weave in with other quests and adventures and mysteries. Your decision to maintain secrecy is well founded, DM. :D