Post/Author/DateTime	Post
#1 Ogiwan Jul 17, 2010 17:51:30	Greetings, all. In my many hours of plotting complicated machinations to re-ignite the Last War for my own fell designs, I keep running into a problem with Northern Khorvaire. Specifically, Aundair, Thrane, and Karrnath hate each others guts, and strategically threaten each other. Simply put, I cannot see how any of them would ally with each other, and I also don't see how any of the remaining major nations could stand against an alliance of Breland plus another. For example, if Thrane and Breland ally, I can't see Aundair and Karrnath allying to counterbalancing it, nor do I see either Aundair or Karrnath winning. It would also leave at least one of the four remaining major nations twiddling its thumbs. Sure, Thrane and Aundair will tear into eachother over Thaliost, and Breland could be attacked by a Darguun-Droaam alliance, but.....Karrnath fights.....the Valenar elves? Yeah, not that interesting. Unless Karrnath falls into civil war.... Nevertheless. How do you all see the Last War being re-ignited, and how do you see the alliance structures forming?
#2 Hellcow Jul 17, 2010 20:30:47	Unless Karrnath falls into civil war.... Which is quite plausible, given the tenuous balance of power between Kaius and his warlords, further complicated by supression of the Blood of Vol. And don't rule out the Valenar... or the Darguuls... or the Zil... or for the matter Droaam. Yes, the idea of any one of these nations taking on the five individually may seem unlikely, but if one of the Five Nations forms a stronger alliance with any or all of these groups, that changes things considerably. And bear in mind that when you're talking about Valenar, in a very real sense what you're actually talking about is House Lyrandar... which has a good relationship with Aundair. So consider the following: All along, Aundair's greatest strength and what's kept it in the war is arcane magic. Consider this: The Twelve approach Aundair and broker terms of an alliance that will abolish the Treaty of Korth give the houses far greater power in a new Aundairian Galifar. United - and possibly further aided by Lords of Dust or Chamber agents slipping ancient secrets into the mix - the Twelve and the Arcane Congress produce a new generation of arcane weapons that make the eternal wands and sieges staves of today look like flintlocks and cannons next to cruise missiles and nerve gas... meanwhile establishing a new set of forgeholds to produce a new generation of warforged. You have a numerically small force, but if you unite the Twelve behind this and have the Valenar in on it, you've got the Valenar, House Deneith, and new warforged supported by Lyrandar's navy and arcane weaponry or spells outstripping the current "technology" employed by the other nations. And if you DO get the houses united behind the cause, you get to add the chaos of having previously secure lines of communication and support (Sivis, Orien, Lyrandar) suddenly lost. Can you acheive all of that? Do you want that level of disruption? Maybe not. I'm just saying that when you consider alliances, don't just look at the Five Nations; in my opinion, the Twelve is the ally that could really turn the tide. Beyond that, advances in arcane knowledge could dramatically alter the playing field. If you assume the Mourning was an accident caused by weapons testing, the nation or faction who harnesses that power and can actually control it will break all the odds.
#3 PJammaGod Jul 18, 2010 0:28:23	It's all a matter of timing and just what your are willing to do to achieve your goals. While at a raw thematic level we may find the concept of Karrnath and Thrane allying together something of a clash, let's really analyse that. Kaius I suspect is the living avatar of pragmatism. He's cold, meticulous and calculating. I can honestly see him considering the option of allying with Thrane just to take command of half of the continent. What the Karrnathi lack in divine magic (what with the Blood of Vol not so government-vogue right now), the Thranites can supply. And by the same token I can see the Council of Cardinals considering a peace-offering from Karrnath. They could make overtures in the sense of trying to bring peace and unite Khorvaire as one, to protect the whole of creation from the depredations of the dark. Jaela Daran is young and impressionable, if she could be swayed to cosider the idea of a unifying peace across all of Khorvaire she could possibly agree to unite with Karrnath. Now Thrane has the elite troops and raw tactical skill that Karrnath can provide to back up it's levies and small Knightly Orders. Meanwhile a Rakshasa is smiling and pleased that his thirty thousand year old plan in the making is making progress. When you're immortal and reincarnate after death, what does it matter waiting for the pieces to fall into place?
#4 Madfox11 Jul 19, 2010 4:31:45	Of course, there is also another option: a threat arrises that makes it pretty obvious the nations need to align or fall. Such a threat could be an Overlord, the daelkyr, the Dreaming Dark, ancient titans awaking (and realizing Xen'drik due to its curse is not well suited for recovering giant society) or something completely new. It all depends on the type of campaign you want to run. History in RL has shown that with the right kind of threat, people are willing to accept a lot. Sometimes when the threat is gone they revert into old patterns (Sovjet Union and the States), but at other times the beginning of a lasting friendship is forged (France and Germany). At least in Khorvaire there is the Twelve and the Dragonmarked Houses. Get them aboard and you have half the work done as Keith pointed out. Of course, Karnnath is not the only region threatened by civil war. Breland's king is old without a strong and clear heir. Thrane is on the verge of a conflict between theological and mortal authorities. Aunadair's queen is convinced she is the next heir to Galifar and is willing to start a war. The fact is that without some work on your side as a DM, or of course the PCs, chances of Breland allying with Thrane, Aundair or Karnnath are not particular big either as things stand now ;)
#5 korrenheim Jul 20, 2010 14:03:33	In our campaign, the assassination of Lhesh Haruuc leads to bloody civil war in Darguun. The Valenar seize this opportunity to attack Darguun. Karrnath comes in on the side of Darguun for various reasons, but partly at the behest of Deneith who have growing alliances in Darguun; and Karrns have reason to fear Valenar anyway. Declaring war, Valenar begins raiding eastern Karrnath, and Talentans, smelling blood in the water do as well. Karrnath begins to falter and loses some territory. Invoking the Treaty of Thronehold, Karrnath asks for help, but since the fighting is basically all on the other side of the Mournland, other nations seem to want to keep it that way. Meanwhile, Haydith ir'Wynarn, who is a completely different character in our campaign from what is described in the Five Nations, and is a follower of the Silver Flame, learns about her brother and performs a coup. She bans undead soldiers. She marries a Deneith as her prince consort; she changes her name to Haydith ir'Deneith (beginning the Deneith Dynasty), abolishes (at least by her declaration (her big mistake?)) the Korth Edicts and with her new military surplus quickly puts down the raids and retakes the lost land plus some. Haydith declares herself queen of the Holy Galifaran Empire, a nation under one faith, the Silver Flame.  The other nations are now eager to put her  down, but afraid of this new military juggernaut, which has soldiers in every country in Khorvaire. The Houses are mostly in favor of Karrnath. Medani is loyal to Breland, and Lyrandar is against the enemies of Valenar (but is waiting and remaining neutral for now). Thrane is torn with most Thranes choosing for faith despite the unlikely source of this new religious gov't. The Blood of Vol (and the Emerald Claw), the Church of the Sovereign Host, Breland, Aundair, Droaam, Valenar, the Talentans, Q'barra, and the Eldeen are the unlikely Allied Powers. Karrnath, the Church of the Silver Flame and almost all of the Houses are the Axis. to be cont'd...
#6 Ogiwan Jul 20, 2010 16:24:35	That's fething delicious.
#7 Madfox11 Jul 21, 2010 5:59:45	Intrigueing... personally I would not be too sure the majority of the Houses would actually actively and publically support Deneith in the presented situation. They might be able to ally behind a single nation, but by placing a Deneith on the throne it becomes a completely different story. I am not sure that the majority of the Houses would actually want such an obvious, sudden and visible removal of the Edicts. Houses like Tharask and Vidalis are simply too dependend on their holdings in some of the opposing alliance (Droaam and Eldeen Reaches respectively) and it would be extremely difficult to maintain the necessary neutrality in this situation. The fact that the ruler also is in the process of creating a theology would chase away others. I am not sure the Church of the Silver Flame would unquestionably support the coupe... having said that, if you can convince the leadership of the Church that the nation need to be united to be strong in an upcomming struggle against evil, they would likely switch. Side note: Thurani: supporting Deneith would make them the biggest hypocrits in the world. The whole split of the house was based on Thurani mass murdering a clan of their own because that clan was planning a coupe and becomming the rulers of Galifar.
#8 korrenheim Jul 21, 2010 15:28:26	The CoSF definitely didn't unquestionably support the Empire (though they supported killing a vampire ruler of Karrnath without much doubt - once that was made known). The posting above definitely squished a lot of events into a concise account. But the Church avoided schism and though the nation hasn't joined the "Empire" at this point it is a nominally allied state. Haydith killing the vampire king of Karrnath helped. Also the fact that she cunningly chose 21 Nymm (First Dawn) for declaring her New Order worked psychologically with the Thranes. The Houses joining on was probably over-simplified especially given what would naturally be people's conflicting nationalist v. house loyalties. Thuranni being hypocritical isn't that big of a surprise: a) people are hypocritical all the time b) it was 30 years ago and the world is a very different place after the Mourning. Anyway, any of the Houses could be playing a double game of some sort especially the elven houses and have some other agenda. And war is good for most of the houses financially even if they're not wholeheartedly for the Empire. After all, even if the Imperials lose, the Korth Edicts will likely have to be renegotiated and the Houses are arguably more powerful now than they were 1000 years ago and might be able to negotiate a better deal. As far as I can tell the Edicts were in place strictly to control the power of the Houses. They might want to replace Deneith at the throne, but the new paradigm is undoubtedly in their favor.
#9 Madfox11 Jul 22, 2010 2:20:14	It is a bit of a pet peeve of mine, but why would war be good for the Houses financially? War is ultimately never good for an economy because dead people do not buy products, and those that survive think only about survival. Broke countries will not pay their debts. In a war the needs of the country are often placed above the needs of the individual, meaning that merchants loose a lot of protection. Soldiers are chasing each other instead of bandits making the roads a lot less save. Note that obviously, it is your campaign, and people are rarely logical when it comes to things like nationalism and economy. As a backdrop for a campaign it certainly sounds intriguing and fun to play in.
#10 Ogiwan Jul 22, 2010 8:27:23	Well, to start, all of the Dragonmarked Houses can find some way to profit off of war. I would like to see more explanation of the effects of House Orien on logistics, but i'm a wee bit of a geek in that regard. Your point about broke countries not paying their debts is valid, but I have to ask if we are really dealing with economies with currencies coupled tightly to precious metal stocks. Once paper money is introduced as a sort of...."representative currency", if you will, the amount of money issued does not need to correspond to the amount of gold in a nation's treasury reserves. Hell, the modern economy works by such theoretical wealth, and banks never have enough actual cash on hand to actually give everybody their money if they ask. Modern economics. Its weird stuff. Anyways. With theoretical currency coupled with the national debt (which Khorvairan nations certainly have), its harder for a nation to go bankrupt. Now, combine that with the possibility that the business with the Dragonmarked Houses isn't just one-way; governments could collect taxes (income, sales, property, etc) from the Dragonmarked houses, or other businesses, sell raw materials to them, maybe even collect fines from them. Sure, an order for a brigade of warforged may be a staggering amount, but it may be mitigated by collecting money back from the Dragonmarked houses.
#11 Madfox11 Jul 23, 2010 2:28:40	There is no doubt every house can earn money of war. What I am arguing is that on the long run, virtually all houses will earn more during peace time. The result is that in my mind, individuals within the Houses stand to make great profits during a war, but the House as a whole is likely to ultimately loose. As for collecting money back, since the nations are actually borrowing money from a House, that would be rather counter productive for the Houses as a whole. Regardless, it is exactly such actions that make a long lasting active war so devastating for merchants. A wartime economy does not care about the profits of individuals. Producing weapons and soldiers takes precedence. Of course, in this particular case the Houses have become the government which is likely to change things somewhat...
#12 Bly2729 Jul 23, 2010 7:13:33	But in the short run, there are incredible profits and opportunities that the Barons and Scions can't afford to pass up lest another house or nation take advantage of them.  The long run may be a logical choice, but rarely is it a realistic choice.  House Deneith is an example of this jockeying with a long/short term view of things.  The Baron's long term view won out, but its politically unpopular within the House and led his opposition to seek aid from the Emerald Claw and Dreaming Dark which could have even worse consequences.  This is what led Brelish economist Jhan Meernard ir'Khan to quote, "in the long run, we're all dead...hopefully."
#13 Ogiwan Jul 23, 2010 10:18:18	Well, let's look at each house, and see if they would make more in peace than in war: Cannith: Peacetime: Making stuff, probably consumer goods.  Wartime: making Warforged and military equipment. Analysis: I think that military equipment would have a far higher consumption rate than consumer goods, so I think that Cannith would prefer war. Deneith: Peacetime: Providing security to wealthy individuals. Wartime: Supplying mercenary armies. Analysis: No brainer, Deneith wants war (in terms of profit-making). Ghallandra: Peacetime: Running inns all over Khorvaire. Wartime: Running inns all over Khorvaire, plus running R&R stations for soldiers, plus combat zone morale-boosters (good, hot food is oddly important to a grunt). Analysis: Ghallandra, by catering to massed armies, more than makes up for depressed civilian income. Jorasco: Peacetime: Healing people. Wartime: Healing people, and providing medical care for injured soldiers. Analysis: Jorasco makes out like a bandit in wartime. Not only do they supply front-line (or combat zone) medics, they also supply long-term care for convalescing soldiers. Plus, when they're mustered out, wounded vets will still patronize Jorasco establishments. Kundarak: Peacetime: Banking. Wartime: Banking. Analysis: Kundarak, by virtue of extending loans, makes out quite well during a war, but it may prefer long periods of peace to actually pay them back.  However, nations don't need to take out massive loans in peacetime, so the condition of war makes it kind of necessary. We'll put this as questionable, but the war is still important. Lyrander: Peacetime: Irrigation services, seagoing transportation. Wartime: Irrigation services, seagoing transportation, plus limited naval and airship-related combat services. Analysis: I think that Lyrander might want peace. Sure, they can jack up the price for irrigation services during wartime, but that might not be the way to go. Airships, while cool as hell, didn't play that major a role during the Last War. Seagoing transportation of goods is actually better during peacetime. We'll put this as a peace. Medani: Peacetime: Protective services. Wartime: Protective services plus counterintelligence. Analysis: The wartime profit jump for Medani may be the smallest of any of the Houses, but intelligence is a vital part of war. So, depends on how the DM portrays it. Orien: Peacetime: Transportation of consumer goods over Khorvaire. Wartime: Logistics. Analysis: During wartime, Orien would lose business transporting consumer goods, but would gain immensely providing logistics to the armies. The destruction of the White Arch Bridge and Cyre could not have been forseen, though. So, Orien is a maybe for wanting war, but in practice, I think they lost heavily.  Phiarlan/Thuranni: Peacetime: Covert operations, artistic endeavors. Wartime: Booku covert operations, artistic endeavors. Analysis: The Shadow Houses see a huge jump in covert operations (intelligence, sabotage, assassination, offensive propaganda, etc) during wartime, and due to the necessity of mobilizing citizens, they also may see a jump in artistic endeavors for the purposes of "friendly" propaganda. However, I think that they make out far better in a Cold War, as those intelligence services would be in even more demand. We'll put this as a maybe. Sivis: Peacetime: Communication, barrister, and translation. Wartime: Communication, (less) barrister and translation, plus cypher services. Analysis: Sivis may prefer peacetime, as their communicative, barrister, and translation services would go up, but the cypher services would be in high demand during peacetime. Also, by partnering with Kundarak and their role in notarizing currency, Sivis might prefer it like Kundarak: a war to make countries take out loans, followed by peace to pay them back. We'll put this as a maybe as well. Tharashk: Peacetime: Detective and prospecting services. Wartime: (less) Detective services, (more) prospecting services (if we assume that production requires more Eberron shards during wartime), plus monstrous mercenaries. Tharashk is a really questionable one. If the countries of Khorvaire need more Eberron shards during wartime, than Tharashk is good. If not, then all they really have is the monstrous mercenaries. This will be a maybe as well. Vadalis: Peacetime: Breeding animals as luxury mounts, and as livestock. Wartime: (less) breeding animals as luxury mounts, breeding animals as livestock, plus supplying cavalry mounts. Analysis: I think Vadalis is going to favor war, as they would be providing cavalry mounts for the armies. So, in the final count, we have 5 of the houses who make out well during war (Medani optional),  5 who are a maybe (Medani optional), and 2 who want peace. Those maybes can still make a boatload of money, though, but by redistributing their services, not by expanding them. The scale of operations during wartime, though, are generally larger than those during peacetime, but the houses that make out the best are the ones that can provide their usual services as well as new ones.
#14 Bly2729 Jul 23, 2010 12:42:09	All the Houses who could gain during wartime can do just as well during heavy tension as nations spy and prepare for the next war.  A war might be beneficial, but peace and love don't fill coffers.  Even still, a war could mean the end of the Five Nations who buy from the Dragonmarked Houses. It would be profitable but unpredictable and uncontrollable.  Another war could force the hand of monarchs and barons into violating the Korth Edicts and the shield of neutrality they offer. The Nations and Houses jockey for position, spy on each other, kill, and assassinate, but the Edicts and self-interest keep it contained.  In a war, bets are off.  You don't think after fighting so hard to keep the peace, Kaius wouldn't nationalize Dragonmarked interests in Karrnath like he did the Twelve?  The houses have their assassins, but not the ability to fight a state. So they don't necessarily want another war.  But the interests of the Dragonmarked aren't synonymous with the interests of Khorvaire's rabble.  After centuries under the thumb of Galifar, the Dragonmarked aren't ceding their freedom to the monarchs.  That agency is worth more than gold.  I mean, look at the real world.  Noble power fell, merchant power rose.  The American Revolution was led by the economic leaders in the colonies.
#15 morgrum Jul 24, 2010 10:50:05	and I also don't see how any of the remaining major nations could stand against an alliance of Breland plus another. For example, if Thrane and Breland ally, I can't see Aundair and Karrnath allying to counterbalancing it, nor do I see either Aundair or Karrnath winning. It would also leave at least one of the four remaining major nations twiddling its thumbs. Nevertheless. How do you all see the Last War being re-ignited, and how do you see the alliance structures forming?  Breland is one assassination and some careful nudges away from civil war (as has already been pointed out). An invasion by Droaam / Darguun would keep Breland occupied and prevent them from intervening elsewhere on Khorvaire. I don't see Aurala as likely to ally with monsters or goblins, but both Kaius and (I think) Krozen are pragimatic enough to put military / political gain above 'ickyness'. The way I see the Last War restarting: someone does something (extra) stupid in Thaliost. Aurala, spurred on by the hawks in her cabinet invades Thrane to protect her 'poor loyal subjects, who have suffered Thranish tyranny for to long'. Seeking to preserve the status quo, Karnnath enters the war on the side of Thrane. Breland remains neutral at first, but will eventually be forced to pick a side. Its also quite possible Thrane and Karnath will decide to move pre-emptively to block Breland from joining Aundair, by the method described above.
#16 korrenheim Jul 24, 2010 12:31:09	Thaliost is definitely a powder keg with possibilities. If Aundair invaded, how would other countries react? Assuming she had some nominal "cause" and they didn't automatically side against the invading country. I'm thinking Karrnath would like an opportunity to have a go at Thrane. Breland might like to get some territory back from Thrane as well.
#17 Ogiwan Jul 25, 2010 15:24:09	Yeah, I had forgotten that there was a lot of action between Breland and Thrane on that southern border.... But see? This is what I'm talking about. On the one hand, its good that there seems to be a lot of leeway in what the nations will do. On the other, its hard to actually figure out. I mean, if Aundair invades Thrane to liberate Thaliost, the Brelish people might make noises to join the Aundairans for some sort of "humanitarian aid" or some such. Does Karrnath then sit this one out, pile onto Thrane, or join with Thrane? I DON'T KNOW! Furthermore, what do Darguun and Droaam do? Q'Barra just sits there and beez all jungle-like, the Mror Holds sit there all rocky-like, and the Eldeen Reaches sit there all tree-like.
#18 Madfox11 Jul 26, 2010 3:32:35	So, in the final count, we have 5 of the houses who make out well during war (Medani optional),  5 who are a maybe (Medani optional), and 2 who want peace. Those maybes can still make a boatload of money, though, but by redistributing their services, not by expanding them. The scale of operations during wartime, though, are generally larger than those during peacetime, but the houses that make out the best are the ones that can provide their usual services as well as new ones. The point is that your analysis focusses on the short term profits and only look at monetary gains and not the loss of resources (eg Tharask would have real difficulty setting up the expeditions required in the dangerous line of prospecting) or the needs of the people (eg healers are not known for their warlike attitude, being confronted rather directly with the suffering of such a prospect). Except for Deneith, who primarily deals in war, all other houses stand to gain (much) more during peacetime, especially when the ruler(s) favors free trade and traffic. All the other houses that have wartime branches earn more money through their peacetime businesses. Of course, in the end it all depends on what you as a DM want. People being people, they can make some pretty foolish decisions. For example, I can easily see the Houses support small local wars rather quickly (as happens in The Legacy of Dhakaan series), and then quickly realize that the war becomes much more than they bargained for (which again might very well have happened in that series were it not for the actions of the heroes).