The Next War - Downloaded from the Wizards Community, all coding removed by Solauren

The Next War

Post/Author/DateTime Post
#1
jastermereel
Nov 16, 2010 8:44:25 I've seen threads predicting how it might start, and who might be belligerent against whom, but now I want to ask the Big Question:

Barring unexpected twists, like the intervention of adventurers or cosmic forces, or the discovery of eldritch doomsday devices, which of the Five Nations stands the greatest chance of actually winning?

The things I am specifically curious about are highly speculative (because they are not discussed in the source material), so please post in this discussion with that understanding (stating it outright is kind of a waste, so please refrain if you have nothing else to say). I want to know what you think of the relative economic disparity between the Five Nations, the size of their armies, their populations, their leadership, etc... any factor you can think of aside from the aforementioned exceptions.

Who would win the Next War? Let the games begin...
#2
Madfox11
Nov 16, 2010 9:14:25 Wouldn't be the most important questions which nation would be able get their internal matters cleaned up, which nation can get the Dragonmarked Houses behind them and what the wildcards like Droaam and Dhaargun will do?

For example, purely by looking at the map I would give Breland the biggest chance of success. It is the biggest nation with most likely the biggest population, the best climate and the most arable land. It seems to be biggest economic power. Furthermore, through their very good relations with Zilargo, they also have the easiest access to some of the best magical and alchemical weapon crafters. The problem is that its government is the least stable, and its people the least likely to actually want a war. They are not too happy about the king's heirs, so why would they want one of them on the throne of Galifar?

Karnath on the other hand has the most warlike citizens, but also suffers from the worse climate and hence seems to suffer hunger and plague quickly during a war. And that is not even talking about the resentment between Kaius and his warlords, the influence of the Blood of Vol and the reliance of undead. Of course, once the internal problems are dealt with, getting Lyrandor on their payroll to help with food production, and it becomes a force to be reckoned with. After all, it was Karnath that conquered Galifar the first time.

Thrane could work on the Silver Flame angle, and we all know how dangerous religious fanatics can be once they get behind a cause. The problem is that the Church is split with the spiritual leader wanting to stay away from material power while the material leaders feel it is their duty to protect the world against evil through material power. Furthermore, the Church of the Silver Flame is not a continent wide stighly organized religion that gets loyalty above the nation of birth. A Silver Flame worshipper from Breland is not likely to follow Thrane just because Cardinal Krazen tells him to.

Finally, Aunadair has a strong magical presence, but it lacks the economical resources of Breland and as far as I can tell, the warlike nature of Karnath. It also has a rather naive (in regards to war anyway) ruler who seems to be heading for a conflict about how war is supposed to be faught with her ministers and I seem to remember brother. It needs stronger leadership to stand a chance.

Of course, this is done on purpose by the designers, since it means that (a) there is a good explenation for the current standoff and (b) to give the DM and players full control over who wins and who loses ;)
#3
dan_vk
Nov 16, 2010 12:27:47

Barring unexpected twists, like the intervention of adventurers or cosmic forces, or the discovery of eldritch doomsday devices, which of the Five Nations stands the greatest chance of actually winning?

Since the entire discussion is to take place using unverifiable assumptions (economic might, production capacity, et cetera), why bar hypotheticals? After all, the Last War was settled by what was most likely an eldritch doomsday device, the actions of a small but skilled group, or divine intervention (or something just as powerful, like earning the scorn of Argonessen). Merrix d’Cannith destroying Breland by activating Xulo, the magebred humans in the Mournland siding with Karrnath, and Sarlona deciding to get involved are all legitimate possibilities that would change the outcome of the conflict.

Wouldn't be the most important questions which nation would be able get their internal matters cleaned up, which nation can get the Dragonmarked Houses behind them and what the wildcards like Droaam and Dhaargun will do?

We have a bingo. All of the “human” nations have their houses in disarray, and the “non-human” nations are as eager to expand their borders as anyone else. Ultimately, if a single nation can win the favor of the Twelve that nation will win the war. If the Twelve push a policy of non-intervention then this hypothetical situation could play out. If the Twelve adopt a neutral position and allow the Houses to involve themselves as long as they do not choose a side, then chances are the war will be long, destructive and I cannot imagine the four remaining Five Nations surviving intact.

The problem is that the Church is split with the spiritual leader wanting to stay away from material power while the material leaders feel it is their duty to protect the world against evil through material power.

Do not forget about the secret societies. The Silver Torch believe the theocracy is made up of the impure. They desire the execution of all non-humans and anyone who does not worship the Silver Flame. The Chalice of Blood believe non-humans are marginalized in society. They harbor a lot of anti-human feeling. The Host of the Faithful believe they should not have to pretend to worship the Silver Flame and are tired of being persecuted for worshipping the Sovereign Host. The Throneholders, led by the Queen, believe the monarchy should be reinstated as rulers of Thrane. All of these groups condone varying levels of violence, and they all oppose High Cardinal Krozan, who is willing to do anything to remain in power because he fanatically believes only he can properly keep Thrane safe. Even if Thrane was not directly involved in renewed conflict, the nation would probably fly apart at the seams as these groups use the anxiety and fear a new war would cause to try to seize power.

All of the remaining Five Nations have these problems, though. Breland has the Swords of Liberty, Karrnath has the Order of the Emerald Claw, and two members of Aundair’s Triumvirate are inching towards war, but they are on opposite sides of the country. I think another “Last War” would spell doom for the former states of Galifar.

A Silver Flame worshipper from Breland is not likely to follow Thrane just because Cardinal Krazen tells him to.

But a Silver Flame worshipper from Aundair might. They have the highest concentration of Pure Flame adherents, and those folk are nuts.
#4
jastermereel
Nov 19, 2010 9:20:07
Since the entire discussion is to take place using unverifiable assumptions (economic might, production capacity, et cetera), why bar hypotheticals? After all, the Last War was settled by what was most likely an eldritch doomsday device, the actions of a small but skilled group, or divine intervention (or something just as powerful, like earning the scorn of Argonessen). Merrix d’Cannith destroying Breland by activating Xulo, the magebred humans in the Mournland siding with Karrnath, and Sarlona deciding to get involved are all legitimate possibilities that would change the outcome of the conflict.

The reason why I barred such hypothetical scenarios is because guessing as to the economic might, productive capacity, etc.. of a nation is far easier than guessing about what essentially amounts to "from-left-field" events that are noteworthy particularly because of their left-fieldness. In other words, we could guess what kind of economy one of the Five Nations has by looking at the map, but we can't possibly guess that a small group of hitherto unknown individuals will assassinate King Boranel and thus ignite the Brelish Civil War. For example.
#5
wyldcat
Nov 19, 2010 20:14:03

A Silver Flame worshipper from Breland is not likely to follow Thrane just because Cardinal Krazen tells him to.

But a Silver Flame worshipper from Aundair might. They have the highest concentration of Pure Flame adherents, and those folk are nuts.

Yet another reason why things could get ugly if there's another uprising in Thaliost....

Post/Author/DateTime	Post
#1 jastermereel Nov 16, 2010 8:44:25	I've seen threads predicting how it might start, and who might be belligerent against whom, but now I want to ask the Big Question: Barring unexpected twists, like the intervention of adventurers or cosmic forces, or the discovery of eldritch doomsday devices, which of the Five Nations stands the greatest chance of actually winning? The things I am specifically curious about are highly speculative (because they are not discussed in the source material), so please post in this discussion with that understanding (stating it outright is kind of a waste, so please refrain if you have nothing else to say). I want to know what you think of the relative economic disparity between the Five Nations, the size of their armies, their populations, their leadership, etc... any factor you can think of aside from the aforementioned exceptions. Who would win the Next War? Let the games begin...
#2 Madfox11 Nov 16, 2010 9:14:25	Wouldn't be the most important questions which nation would be able get their internal matters cleaned up, which nation can get the Dragonmarked Houses behind them and what the wildcards like Droaam and Dhaargun will do? For example, purely by looking at the map I would give Breland the biggest chance of success. It is the biggest nation with most likely the biggest population, the best climate and the most arable land. It seems to be biggest economic power. Furthermore, through their very good relations with Zilargo, they also have the easiest access to some of the best magical and alchemical weapon crafters. The problem is that its government is the least stable, and its people the least likely to actually want a war. They are not too happy about the king's heirs, so why would they want one of them on the throne of Galifar? Karnath on the other hand has the most warlike citizens, but also suffers from the worse climate and hence seems to suffer hunger and plague quickly during a war. And that is not even talking about the resentment between Kaius and his warlords, the influence of the Blood of Vol and the reliance of undead. Of course, once the internal problems are dealt with, getting Lyrandor on their payroll to help with food production, and it becomes a force to be reckoned with. After all, it was Karnath that conquered Galifar the first time. Thrane could work on the Silver Flame angle, and we all know how dangerous religious fanatics can be once they get behind a cause. The problem is that the Church is split with the spiritual leader wanting to stay away from material power while the material leaders feel it is their duty to protect the world against evil through material power. Furthermore, the Church of the Silver Flame is not a continent wide stighly organized religion that gets loyalty above the nation of birth. A Silver Flame worshipper from Breland is not likely to follow Thrane just because Cardinal Krazen tells him to. Finally, Aunadair has a strong magical presence, but it lacks the economical resources of Breland and as far as I can tell, the warlike nature of Karnath. It also has a rather naive (in regards to war anyway) ruler who seems to be heading for a conflict about how war is supposed to be faught with her ministers and I seem to remember brother. It needs stronger leadership to stand a chance. Of course, this is done on purpose by the designers, since it means that (a) there is a good explenation for the current standoff and (b) to give the DM and players full control over who wins and who loses ;)
#3 dan_vk Nov 16, 2010 12:27:47	Barring unexpected twists, like the intervention of adventurers or cosmic forces, or the discovery of eldritch doomsday devices, which of the Five Nations stands the greatest chance of actually winning? Since the entire discussion is to take place using unverifiable assumptions (economic might, production capacity, et cetera), why bar hypotheticals? After all, the Last War was settled by what was most likely an eldritch doomsday device, the actions of a small but skilled group, or divine intervention (or something just as powerful, like earning the scorn of Argonessen). Merrix d’Cannith destroying Breland by activating Xulo, the magebred humans in the Mournland siding with Karrnath, and Sarlona deciding to get involved are all legitimate possibilities that would change the outcome of the conflict. Wouldn't be the most important questions which nation would be able get their internal matters cleaned up, which nation can get the Dragonmarked Houses behind them and what the wildcards like Droaam and Dhaargun will do? We have a bingo. All of the “human” nations have their houses in disarray, and the “non-human” nations are as eager to expand their borders as anyone else. Ultimately, if a single nation can win the favor of the Twelve that nation will win the war. If the Twelve push a policy of non-intervention then this hypothetical situation could play out. If the Twelve adopt a neutral position and allow the Houses to involve themselves as long as they do not choose a side, then chances are the war will be long, destructive and I cannot imagine the four remaining Five Nations surviving intact. The problem is that the Church is split with the spiritual leader wanting to stay away from material power while the material leaders feel it is their duty to protect the world against evil through material power. Do not forget about the secret societies. The Silver Torch believe the theocracy is made up of the impure. They desire the execution of all non-humans and anyone who does not worship the Silver Flame. The Chalice of Blood believe non-humans are marginalized in society. They harbor a lot of anti-human feeling. The Host of the Faithful believe they should not have to pretend to worship the Silver Flame and are tired of being persecuted for worshipping the Sovereign Host. The Throneholders, led by the Queen, believe the monarchy should be reinstated as rulers of Thrane. All of these groups condone varying levels of violence, and they all oppose High Cardinal Krozan, who is willing to do anything to remain in power because he fanatically believes only he can properly keep Thrane safe. Even if Thrane was not directly involved in renewed conflict, the nation would probably fly apart at the seams as these groups use the anxiety and fear a new war would cause to try to seize power. All of the remaining Five Nations have these problems, though. Breland has the Swords of Liberty, Karrnath has the Order of the Emerald Claw, and two members of Aundair’s Triumvirate are inching towards war, but they are on opposite sides of the country. I think another “Last War” would spell doom for the former states of Galifar. A Silver Flame worshipper from Breland is not likely to follow Thrane just because Cardinal Krazen tells him to. But a Silver Flame worshipper from Aundair might. They have the highest concentration of Pure Flame adherents, and those folk are nuts.
#4 jastermereel Nov 19, 2010 9:20:07	Since the entire discussion is to take place using unverifiable assumptions (economic might, production capacity, et cetera), why bar hypotheticals? After all, the Last War was settled by what was most likely an eldritch doomsday device, the actions of a small but skilled group, or divine intervention (or something just as powerful, like earning the scorn of Argonessen). Merrix d’Cannith destroying Breland by activating Xulo, the magebred humans in the Mournland siding with Karrnath, and Sarlona deciding to get involved are all legitimate possibilities that would change the outcome of the conflict. The reason why I barred such hypothetical scenarios is because guessing as to the economic might, productive capacity, etc.. of a nation is far easier than guessing about what essentially amounts to "from-left-field" events that are noteworthy particularly because of their left-fieldness. In other words, we could guess what kind of economy one of the Five Nations has by looking at the map, but we can't possibly guess that a small group of hitherto unknown individuals will assassinate King Boranel and thus ignite the Brelish Civil War. For example.
#5 wyldcat Nov 19, 2010 20:14:03	A Silver Flame worshipper from Breland is not likely to follow Thrane just because Cardinal Krazen tells him to. But a Silver Flame worshipper from Aundair might. They have the highest concentration of Pure Flame adherents, and those folk are nuts. Yet another reason why things could get ugly if there's another uprising in Thaliost....