How can I best calculate Rogue average damage?

Post/Author/DateTimePost
#1

Daganev

Jul 10, 2014 2:41:21

So I'm trying to compare two rogue builds to eachother.

The first rogue is easy. It's a wood elf with a long bow  in a wilderness campaign, doing 1d8+mod damage and always being hidden with SA damage. Fine.

My second rogue however is a dungeoninering halfling who might use a rapier, or might use a short sword and dagger in the off hand.

 

What I'm trying to figure out is how to calcluate the average damage with three different possible scenarios in mind.

1. Shortsword + cunning action + SA (advantage) = (6.3 )

2. Shortsword + dagger + SA (no advantage) = (5.7)

3. Rapier + cunning action + SA (advantage) = (7.2)

4. Shortsword + dagger (no SA available) = (3.6)

 

How do I figure out the odds of each of those 4 scenaris (just do average damage * .25?) And how do I get a final reasonable number?

 

So does this become  (6.3*0.25) + (5.7*0.25) + (7.2*0.25) + (3.6*0.25) = 5.7  at level 1?

#2

mellored

Jul 10, 2014 5:49:42

Note, that you can get sneak attack with an ally next to the target.  So you do not neccicaraly need advantage, even at range.

 

Anyways...  the damage equasion is...

 

((Average dice + mod) * chance to hit) + (average dice * chance to crit)

 

Average dice is 1/2 the die size + 0.5  (so 1d6 = 3.5 damage)

 

Chance to hit is (21 - the number you hit on) / 20.

So if you hit on an 8 you'd have (21-8) / 20 = 0.65  or 65% chance ot hit.

 

Advantage is 1-(chance to miss * chance to miss).

Chance to miss being 1-chance to hit.

So if you hit on an 8, with advantage it would be 1-(0.35* 0.35) = 0.8775  or 87%

 

Critical hits is the same as to-hit.

(21-20) / 20 = 0.05

 

Crit chance with advantage

1-(.95 * .95) = 0.0975

 

Sneak attack with 2 weapons works like advantage.

1- (chance to miss * chance to miss)  * sneak attack damage.

 

 

For a rogues...

 

1: Sneak attack > no sneak attack.  This becomes very importaint as you level.

 

2: 2-attacks > 1 attack with advantage (even with a bigger weapon).   The difference is pretty minimal though, so feel free to use your cunning action for whatever.

#3

Backlash3906

Jul 10, 2014 11:43:13

Given the scaling bonus to Athletics that Expertise can provide, I'm thinking a Handaxe STR Rogue is supremely viable, as long as a proximity buddy is available. Also useful as long as someone to dole out healing or be an alternate target for whoever you're grabbing is nearby.

#4

mellored

Jul 10, 2014 7:29:31

Backlash3906 wrote:
#5

SenasDalaran

Jul 10, 2014 19:43:50

mellored wrote:
#6

mellored

Jul 11, 2014 5:29:13

SenasDalaran wrote:
#7

dtsazza

Jul 15, 2014 10:31:14

Backlash3906 wrote:
#8

mellored

Jul 15, 2014 11:20:58

dtsazza wrote:
#9

dtsazza

Jul 17, 2014 6:44:32

OK, thanks for the clarification.

 

I agree a Str-based Rogue would likely not be as effective overall, though there could be some interesting shenanigans with grappling.  (Maybe that's best left to the Fighter.)

#10

mellored

Jul 17, 2014 6:52:29

dtsazza wrote: