The Chance of a Critical Hit

Post/Author/DateTimePost
#1

zombiegleemax

Nov 15, 2003 18:48:54
Just to save everyone a lot of time when trying to work out the average damage for weapons, I thought I'd work out the chance of any hit from a weapon being a critical.

Warning: Maths ahead.

If you have already hit with your weapon, then the chance of the hit being a threat is equal to:

|Threat Range|/|Hit Range|

Where |Threat Range| = the number of numbers in the threat range (so a greatsword with a 19-20 threat range has a |Threat Range| of 2)

The chance of the critical being confirmed is equal to

|The Hit Range|/20

Therefore, given that you hit with the weapon, the chance of getting a critical is equal to

|Threat Range|/|Hit Range| * |Hit Range|/20

= The Threat Range/20

So to use an example, the chance of a greatsword hit being critical is equal to

2 (Threat Range)/20= 1/10=10%

Therefore 1/10 of all greatsword hits (ignoring Improved Critical, Keen, Fortification and other such modifiers) will be critical hits.

Therefore the threat range means that the Greatsword does an average of 10% more damage on every hit. This also increases the damage from high strength and enhancement bonuses by the same proportion (but has absolutely no effect on elemental or sneak attack damage).

This works irrespective of the chance of actually hitting unless not all threats actually hit.
















As a consequence to this, if you compare a Keen Scythe to a Keen Greatsword, Including Criticals the Scythe does an average of
5(base damage)+5(base damage)*1/10(chance of a threat)*3(critical multiplier-1)=6.5 average damage
The Greatsword does
7 (base damage)+ 7(base damage)*1/5(threat chance)*1=8.4 average damage.

BUT the scythe gets 10% more utility out of any strength or enhancement bonusses than the greatsword does (due to the better critical chance).

Therefore the Scythe needs to do (8.4-6.5)/10% =19 bonus damage from strength and enhancement bonuses before it reaches break even. If it does more than this (very high strength wielder with a magical scythe) then the scythe (and, for that matter the falchion) are better than the greatsword. If not, the greatsword is better for the character than the scythe is.

Do with this what you will (including comparing it to Edymion's average damage per weapon post).
#2

ondali

Nov 21, 2003 12:29:47
Please modify parts of this article. It starts with the following fundamental wrong statement, “Therefore the threat range means that the Greatsword does an average of 10% more damage on every hit. The Greatsword has a 10% chance of doing more damage, but not doing on average 10% more damage.

It happens to be that a normal great sword does 10% more damage because of the criticals (because the crit = *2 meaning +100%
10% of +100%= +10% damage).

a scythe has 5% change on +300% damage = +15% damage
a falchion has 15% change on +100% damage = +15% damage

A scythe gets 5% more damage because of the critical but does on average 1.9 less damage. Therefore a scythe needs 38 points of bonus to be equal.
A keen scythe doubles the difference, so halves the needed difference: 19 points

"BUT the scythe gets 10% more utility out of any strength or enhancement bonuses than the greatsword does (due to the better critical chance)."

A scythe has a worse critical chance but a better critical multiplier

It is better to compare 2 weapons with the same base damage
Guisarme (but range)
Falchion
Scythe
All have 5 average base damage

Furthermore, keen not +1 weapons do not exist in normal campaigns, so please add +1 to both examples. (it does not change the math, but enhances the comprehension)

To enhance comprehension use the base damage only once in the equations. this will make it easier to understand the formula and prevent mistakes with the critical multipliers.

The average damage for a the weapons that you describe (but which do not exist) is also not correct
Average damage scythe = 6

the math is similar to what you stated earlier:

Scythe:
Average damage is 5
Change of a non-crit is 18/20 (remember that the assumption is that you hit)

Average damage of a crit is 4*5 (scythe has *4 multiplier)
Change of crit is 2/20 (better to understand then 1/10)

Average damage is
5 * 18/20 + 5*4*2/20
5 * 18/20 + 5* (4*2/20)
Get base damage to the left of the equation
5 * (18/20 + 4* 2/20)
5 * (18/20 + 8/20)
5 * (26/20)

= 6,5

The average damage of a comparable falchion (keen not +1) is also 6.5
5 * 14/20 + 5*2*6/20
5 * (14/20 + 12/20)
5 * (26/20)
= 6,5

The average damage of a comparable greatsword (keen not +1) is also
7 * 16/20 + 7*2*4/20
7 * (16/20 + 8/20)
7 * (24/20)
= 8.4

WotC did a good job in making all weapons equal, and still different.

I compliment you with the end result.

Ondali
A fighter with a strength of 30 now has to choose between his +5 keen Scythe of Slay Living and his +5 keen Greatsword of Kill Everyting.