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| #1ZardnaarFeb 13, 2015 15:56:22 | There seems to be some arguments going around the forums as to how successful 5E has been. Some more information has gone up on ENworld which actually had some estimates of sales figures from Amazon.
Apparently the 5E players hand book has sold just under 30 000 units on Amazon and in the same thread apparently around 30% of all book sales come from Amazon. The PHB did hit number 1 but itwas eventually beaten by a text book so there was a lack of a AAA+ title to compete with.
If true this would give 5E a sales figures of around 100k for the PHB and that excludes the boxed set.
Personally I think the Amazon sales might make up a slightly higher % of 5E sales than 30% due to the deep discounts offered and not everyone has a FLGS to actually buy the core books form compared with other books such as novels. One would still be looking at tens of thousands of units sold though and I believe the number would still be large in terms of product sold. Now Mearls has used language like 5E has succeeded beyond expectations and they are selling books in numbers that would make other publishers pay attention.
There is actually nothing inconsistent with Mearls statements and the ENworld numbers. If they are somewhat accurate however 5E has been selling well compared with most editions of D&D and in that time frame has actually outsold most editions of D&D as well with a few exceptions.
1. BECMI. That red box sold something like 1-1.5 million units. It is the largest selling D&D item ever.3.0,3.5 and Pathfinder core books added togather add up to around 1.1 million.
2. The 3.0 PHB. According to Ryan Dancey they sold something like 300k in the 1st month and Sean K Reynolds has written about the print run for 3.0 would have been at least 100k in order to be able to sell it at $20 a book in 2000. If the 100k units of 5E is semi accurate 5E will outsell 3.5 in 2-3 years if they maintain a semi decent rate. 3.5 did not do as well as 3.0 even if 3.5 is seen as the “definitive” version of 3.5.
3. 2E sold around 270- 280k PHB in its 1st year. Once again this figure has been around the net for a while now as it was used by Dancey to compare the 3.0 launch to 2Es 1st year.
It has probably outsold 1E as well in a comparable amount of time although 1E was released over several years (77-79) but it was in print for 13 years and it was reprinted something like 16 or 17 times with several print runs of 40k. Several 1E adventures however managed to sell over 100k (or 200k in 1 case) units and the Temple of Elemental Evil was printed 6 times.
So 5E probably has not outsold the golden and silver age versions of D&D, it might outsell 2E in its 1st year. Eric Mona last year revealed sales figures for 3.0, 3.5, and Pathfinder (500k, 350-350k, 250k) and ENworld has had some estimates for 4E as well. Ex WoTC staffers have used words like disaster and saving D&D (Monte Cook) in regards to 4E though along with estimates the current D&D fanbase is around a third of the size of the 3E era fanbase. That estimate also matches up with the size of the D&D design team as well.
The Amazon sales figures (if accurate) would be consistent with that estimate as well along with the 50-100k estimates of 4E units shifted. If true 5E will likely outsell 3.5, 4E, and Pathfinder in 1-3 years. It could have already outsold 4E. Context-that means they have a hit version of D&D in their hands. It has outsold OD&D outright (every version of D&D can claim that though), seems to be selling fatser than 1E, might exceed 2E 1st year sales, has likely or will soon beat 4E and it is on track to beat 3.5 and Pathfinder as well. It probably will not beat BECMI or 3.0 though. Longshot it might beat 3.0 eventually, I doubt antything will ever beat the golden age of D&D short of an MMO going masssive or a hit movie.
Note this excludes the fact sales of 5E are likely to dip due to saturation point (eventually everyone wanting a PHB will have one). Modern D&D seems very front loaded in terms of sales (3.0 being notorious for this) but 5E still seems to have had a good launch compared with the last 10 years of D&D (inc PF). Reviews online seem mostly positive, a new PC game has been announced and reception seems to be positive. Nothing Mearls has said would seem to contradict what we do know and we do not know what expectations WoTC had in regards to Mearls claiming they have exceeded them.
So basically we are not in a new golden or silver age of D&D and likely not even a bronze age but things seem to be going well early on. The dark ages of D&D seem to be behind us. By most accounts 4E had a good launch as well so it is not all sunshine and roses as a lack of product and the % of the D&D still playing 3.x games online and IRL with PFS organized play right now still probably exceeds the current 5E player base. Sales and reviews do not always translate into more bums on seats (people playing the game). Even if a movie deal was announced tomorrow it would still be 1-2 years in the future before you could go and see it. So selling the D&D brand may or may not work out I think it is early to speculate one way or the other there.
Final note the ENworld numbers could be completely wrong one way or the other but they seem believable with what we do know or with what various industry people have said (Dancey,SKR, Mearls, Tweet, Cook, Mona, Lisa Stevens etc).
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| #2TheTrevdorFeb 13, 2015 17:02:20 | The only thing that will tell us if 5th Edition has been a viable success will be time and sales post-core rulebooks. In these past 6 months, we've seen a lot of really excellent product, even though there have been some quality issues with regards to the two adventure modules (HotDQ and RoT).
I think Elemental Evil/Princes of the Apocalypse will be the real test here. WotC is trying out some very interesting things sales-wise, but we'll only know how successful these decisions are when we actually start seeing real sales data and see if the line continues. Right now, we're seeing a lot more emphasis on peripherals to the game itself, as opposed to new player content. D&D's value as a brand seems to be what WotC (and probably Hasbro) want to push: the Neverwinter Online game, miniatures (Boosters for Icons of the Realms and Attack Wing), a new video game, a new board game, and D&D Dice Masters all add up to what appears to be a push for building the brand beyond the confines of a tabletop RPG. Ultimately, I think this speaks more to their strategy than strict tabletop sales.
Honestly, I don't think 5th Edition, or really any tabletop RPG, is going to have quite the explosive amount of energy of AD&D or even 3.x had, because the gaming community has just changed. I'm more excited than ever that I can actually find a group of people to play D&D with in my local gaming shops, and I do hope that continues, but I also find that tabletop RPGers, at least in my college town community, are fairly rare. While I've been able to DM a pretty steady stream of players since August, I have yet to find a steady game that I can join as a player, which tells me that there's still more room to expand.
I expect that the new edition has to have some time to settle into itself. How Elemental Evil is handled will likely determine how many players stick with 5th Edition and stick with D&D. If, by August, we see that 5th Edition's first year has been a phenomenal success, I think it'll be safe to assume that it's on the right track.
Without accurate sales data, it appears to me that 5th Edition is on the path to success. Although it hasn't been as explosive as years past, we're still talking about a gaming community that has radically changed in the past 15 years since the launch of 3rd Edition, and a gaming community that has changed even more dramatically in the past 40 years since D&D was first produced (and much of that change has been because of the way D&D developed).
I don't know that we really have enough information to determine whether or not it's here to stay for good, given that there have been many different growing pains stemming from this new release, and there are still a lot of people reticent to join 5th Edition. The worst thing for D&D currently is the fragmentation of its own player base, but that's simply something that comes from trying to continue making games over the course of 40 years. I think that 5th Edition is a perfectly fine RPG, and all of the things that people love about 3rd Edition or AD&D are the things that turn me off from those games. 5th Edition is what you make of it, just as any RPG is: if you want to hate 5th Edition, you'll find more than enough room to hate it, because that's your perogative. If you want to love 5th Edition, there's more than enough to love. I remain skeptical of its growth, considering that I feel like there's still a lot of room to grow and I remain hungry for more content that seems to be fairly unsteady, but I'm hoping it will grow. I'm certainly willing to stick with it and put in the effort to see it grow in my local community, and March 27th can't get here fast enough. |
| #3Coredump00Feb 13, 2015 19:49:02 | The Amazon numbers are not from Amazon, they are from a 3rd party company that estimates sales based on the books sales rankings. |
| #4RastapopoulosFeb 14, 2015 12:39:40 |
5e is being sold to both a new generation of D&D players and several past generations of tabletop gamers, to whom at the very least a new edition was reason to spark the curiosity. This doesn't mean that those initial sales equal edition success. A lot of people bought the core books or at least the PHB but aren't playing 5e and shouldn't be buying or following it anymore.
Now I'm not saying it is "failing", not at all. Just that the targeted audience of 5e is bigger than 4e's which was bigger than 3e's and so on. So we'll probably have to wait a year or two and new releases to actually see how many people are actively playing and buying 5e, once the initial hype and general curiosity passes.
It is very hard to compare sales of products from different times and different market realities. Just hard numbers aren't a good way to do so. In the video-game industry for example, what could be considered a "huge success" in sales for a game in the 90s, today probably isn't much. It depends on how big the targeted audience is among other factors.
As an aftertought, congrats to BECMI for the achievement in sales. Come to think of it, BECMI was being sold practically to a single generation of gamers, almost as a "new" game introduced to the market even if D&D had had some editions before it. And yet it managed to sell that much. Nowadays on the other hand we have a decades-old history of D&D players who are there watching what will be next for the game. Expectations of public interest is much higher. |
| #5BoldItalicFeb 14, 2015 16:19:00 | Did you factor in worldwide sales, or just USA ? |
| #6ZardnaarFeb 14, 2015 17:18:15 |
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| #7MechaPilotFeb 14, 2015 19:54:52 |
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| #10moonbeastFeb 15, 2015 23:53:26 | Can't say about sales..... but I noticed that my local FLGS has indeed exploded with weekly D&D activity in the past year alone. But that is not becase of 5e specifically, but because the Adventurer's Leagues were heavily promoted to the FLGS. Many of those gamers that now attend weekly League sessions at the FLGS are first-time D&D players.... and no doubt, they will be hooked as potential customers for 5th Edition products.
Secondly.... I think that many of you don't see the Big Picture when WOTC and Hasbro are promoting the "D&D Brand" beyond tabletop D&D gaming. Yes, sure they are spending their effort working on online games, MMOs, iPad games like Baldurs Gate, and even strictly-miniatures games like Dungeon Command. Guess what? In doing that, they are EXPANDING the reach of the brand to people who NEVER would have touched Dungeons and Dragons because of the stigma that only antisocial fat nerds play D&D games. My nephew (social and athletic) was first introduced to fantasy gaming by the Baldurs Gate II Enhanced game on his iPad tablet. He was hooked. And since he overheard a long time ago that myself and his Dad (my brother) used to be avid D&D players in our teenage years, now he is asking me if I can start a new D&D campaign so that he and his highschool friends can play tabletop D&D as we know it.
In the long run, the strategy will work, it will bring in a new generation of gamers who will want to know more about tabletop D&D and tabletop RPG in general. But they have to be hooked first. And the best way is to hook them in through casual games.... like simple board games, card games, easy-to-learn iPad RPGs, and easy to learn online MMOs, etc. Even all those Salvatore novels have drawn in a lot of new players to D&D, thanks to the talented writing skills of Salvatore. |
| #11bob_goes_upFeb 16, 2015 5:33:27 | Pen and paper roleplaying games had a much bigger mindshare ten years ago, so I wil be really surprised if 5ed manages to outsell 3ed. On the other hand 5ed can easily be "succesful beyond expectations" without outseling 3ed, and I think that WOTC has done a great job with 5ed.
Here are some google search numbers to illustrate the decline in mindshare. The numbers start from 2008
http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=dungeons+and+dragons#q=dungeons%20and%20dragons http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F06c9r
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| #12KazadvornFeb 16, 2015 6:12:52 | Two things to factor in... if you're looking at both long term and short term sales....
I know several people who are playing 5th but have only the free online material provided by WotC. That's enough for them to play the game, and they use 'community resources' (another player's books) when they need to create a specific PC, or level up. Add that to the Spell Card packs that are out now, and it's very easy to play the game without ever buying a book from WotC.
Long term... and even short term... EBAY... in earlier days it was harder to trade used books - not impossible... but much harder. Again from anecdotal evidence... you already have people scouring the online used market for books... Back in the old days, D&D manuals would wind up in the basement, attic or trash bin... now they get sold on Ebay at a deep discount. |
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