This got me thinking about a few things, and honestly, I don't believe that will be the case. In fact, I don't believe we'll see 5e for another five or so years, if not longer. Instead of hijacking that thread, I thought I'd start my own.
Point 1: The Loss of Investment.
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So one thing that is different for 4e compared to anything before it is the fact that WotC put some HEAVY investment in DDI/digital content, specifically the Character Builder, Compendium, etc.
So, you have all this programming you've paid for, and which is a rich tool, and is (now) web-based.
On top of that, they're still updating/correcting things.
Now, granted, they might be able to take the 4e compendium and recycle most of the programming for a 5e compendium, but, to be honest, it's likely to be more cost-effective to just... well, continue what they are doing, and update what they have instead of making something brand-new or mostly-new.
So one thing that is different for 4e compared to anything before it is the fact that WotC put some HEAVY investment in DDI/digital content, specifically the Character Builder, Compendium, etc.
So, you have all this programming you've paid for, and which is a rich tool, and is (now) web-based.
On top of that, they're still updating/correcting things.
Now, granted, they might be able to take the 4e compendium and recycle most of the programming for a 5e compendium, but, to be honest, it's likely to be more cost-effective to just... well, continue what they are doing, and update what they have instead of making something brand-new or mostly-new.
I doubt they would take the risk to publish a 5th edition without being sure it is sufficiently developped, "different" and interesting to be a high sale product - and a long life one. Publishing it too soon would backfire.
I expect more "experimental" products for 4E in the years to come, if sales are not high enough - as a way to widen the audience and keep its interests renewed, while testing possible design concepts for the future.
I think that the only thing that could push a 5E in the near future would be a severe loss of sales for 4E. And even then, WotC would probably make highly publicized changes to 4E rather than try to publish an half-baked 5th edition. It would be some rule change, maybe a new innovative setting, maybe the introduction of "alternative rules" based on the "modularity" idea, etc.
I doubt they would take the risk to publish a 5th edition without being sure it is sufficiently developped, "different" and interesting to be a high sale product - and a long life one. Publishing it too soon would backfire.
I expect more "experimental" products for 4E in the years to come, if sales are not high enough - as a way to widen the audience and keep its interests renewed, while testing possible design concepts for the future.
You actually have a good point, there. There are actually still some settings that haven't been explored (I'm reminded of Spelljammer, for example). So, plenty of campaign settings to bring in people who might be leaving, or people who weren't interested before.
i.e. They're going to milk it, and if you don't like the milk, they'll make a milkshake and see if it works.
To be honest, I think their big profit items for the future of D&D are going to be things like Fortune Cards and Dungeon Tiles and the like. Physical products that help people run the game.
Which, by the way, wizards, an OCEAN-BASED tileset would be nice.
Using the Spelljammer example, if I love the setting but hate 4E, then releasing a 4E Spelljammer will not suddenly make me see the error of my ways and bring me back to 4E. On the other hand, since I DO love Spelljammer and like the 4E mechanics, WotC doesn't need to release Spelljammer as a setting. I already did the heavy lifting and ported over the required fluff and made my own 4E Spelljammer.
Another example is Dragonlance. I loved it, too. I have already done the necessary work and ported over the fluff from 1E and 2E DL to make it 4E friendly. Very few mechanics needed to be added or amended to make this happen. If they release an official 4E Dragonlance, I doubt I would buy it. I already did the work to make my own and, since I made it according to my own take on the setting, I would likely enjoy my version better anyway. On the other hand, if I hated 4E, they could release the most epic, leather-bound, gold-leafed edition of Dragonlance for 4E, and I still wouldn't play it because of my hatred for the edition behind it.
My point is, I really don't think campaign settings are enough to save an edition that might or might not be on life support. When they released Dark Sun, many were excited, myself included. I always loved Dark Sun, and was curious to see how it would fare under the 4E treatment. For those that didn't like 4E, though, they could have not cared less that Dark Sun was released, even if they truly loved that setting.
If you don't like the mechanics of an edition, no amount of settings will change your mind. On the other hand, if you thoroughly enjoy the edition, then you're likely already a customer and will probably buy whatever it is that they choose to release. If WotC wants to infuse new life into 4E, whether to bring in new players or bring back lost ones, then they're going to have to reboot the system from the ground up. Maybe that means a new edition. Maybe that means a reworking of what's already there. I don't have the answer, only my own opinions. From my perspective, there seems to be a split in the customer-base, and I'm not too sure what WotC can do about it. They're never going to be able to please everyone, so attempting to do so will be a huge mistake on their part.
The thing about campaign settings is that if you don't like the base mechanics of the edition, then a dozen new campaign settings won't suddenly make you like them.
That's absolutely true. But is that the issue here?
I would have thought that most people agree that 4e is an improvement on 3.5 even if it still isn't perfect; the only complaint (or the big complaint) is having to buy new books to keep playing D&D - at least online or in playgroups that are staying up-to-date. Yet another new edition would make that complaint worse, not better.
So if people aren't dissatisfied with the mechanics, they could still be dissatisfied if there weren't enough campaign settings available for an edition they otherwise liked.
The thing about campaign settings is that if you don't like the base mechanics of the edition, then a dozen new campaign settings won't suddenly make you like them.
That's absolutely true. But is that the issue here?
I would have thought that most people agree that 4e is an improvement on 3.5 even if it still isn't perfect; the only complaint (or the big complaint) is having to buy new books to keep playing D&D - at least online or in playgroups that are staying up-to-date. Yet another new edition would make that complaint worse, not better.
So if people aren't dissatisfied with the mechanics, they could still be dissatisfied if there weren't enough campaign settings available for an edition they otherwise liked.
It's likely not the issue here at all, but IS a response to CorrinAvatan's comments about campaign settings bringing people in.
The thing about buying new books is a foregone conclusion, and a VERY silly complaint. You're going to buy new books. Period. It is unavoidable, unless you want to buy the core 3 and make everything else up on your own (which is entirely plausible, but not good for WotC's sales figures). But yes, in the end you're going to buy new books, whether they be supplements for the edition you're playing, or books for the newest edition that just rolled out. This is the main reason I have always laughed at the "I have to buy new books and ticks me off" mindset that accompanies every new edition. To be perfectly honest, I would rather buy new books with new rules than Monster Manual XXIII, or Martial Power VII, or Heroes of Things That are Relatively Spooky, or yet another release of a campaign setting that has existed since 1E and has simply undergone cosmetic changes to make it "new" every few years. If I'm going to buy new books, then by God make them NEW.
The primary and possibly sole argument for 5E being on the horizon is "I hate 4E, so it must be true".
I am inclined to believe this to a degree. Of course, those that hate 4E can always point to the recent past of 4E's release schedule as "proof" that something is in the works. Delayed releases, cancelled releases, and so on. Of course 5E is on the horizon. How far away that horizon is...well...if anyone truly knows, they're not talking. Everything else is speculation at best, and common nay-saying at worst.
Maybe a "high epic fantasy" setting set during the War of the Gods, at the beginning of time... or a "cthuloïd horror" setting after a Far Realm invasion/apocalypse... or a detailed "faery" setting ? an ocean-faring setting ? I don't know if any of these would interest anyone but me, though
Anyway, I think they will be more interested in designing some new, experimental rules or options than a setting (or tools for specific settings).
The primary and possibly sole argument for 5E being on the horizon is "I hate 4E, so it must be true".
I am inclined to believe this to a degree. Of course, those that hate 4E can always point to the recent past of 4E's release schedule as "proof" that something is in the works. Delayed releases, cancelled releases, and so on. Of course 5E is on the horizon. How far away that horizon is...well...if anyone truly knows, they're not talking. Everything else is speculation at best, and common nay-saying at worst.
Exactly, but beyond that any putative '5e' is DOA because NOBODY I know is interested in buying a whole new set of books. Half the books we have have barely been cracked. The idea that after 3 years there should be an entire new edition coming down the pipeline? Sorry, that will hurt WotC far more than any perceived dislike of 4e by a relatively small subset of people. Personally I had no interest in 3.x and only the fact that someone FINALLY after 30 years managed to release a high quality set of D&D rules got to me. There are a LOT of us, and we're not that interested in playing musical editions. Forget it. It is nice to fantasize and think about what would be an even more perfected set of rules, but quite frankly the extent of bookshelf already dedicated to 4e pretty much says 'nope'. It plays well, and if you're just willing to use it in the way that makes it fun for you I think you'd find the same thing H-S.
My point is, I really don't think campaign settings are enough to save an edition that might or might not be on life support. When they released Dark Sun, many were excited, myself included. I always loved Dark Sun, and was curious to see how it would fare under the 4E treatment. For those that didn't like 4E, though, they could have not cared less that Dark Sun was released, even if they truly loved that setting.
I don't think this is true. Paizo tells us what non Paizo products are selling in their top 10 list at the Paizo online store on a week by week basis. Now 4E material in general pretty much does not make the cut. Almost invariably its some Pathfinder supporting 3rd party product though on occasion some other companies product does break onto the list. Interestingly enough Darksun went straight to the top of their lists for two or three weeks. Other 4E products almost never do this...the obvious conclusion would seem to be that a lot of the PF fanbase that also plays 4E must have snagged it pretty quickly and likely a bunch of people who otherwise would not have touched a 4E product decided that 'this is the exception'. The fact that everyone and their brothers dog was saying the book is high fluff and phenominally well done probably helped.
Exactly, but beyond that any putative '5e' is DOA because NOBODY I know is interested in buying a whole new set of books. Half the books we have have barely been cracked. The idea that after 3 years there should be an entire new edition coming down the pipeline? Sorry, that will hurt WotC far more than any perceived dislike of 4e by a relatively small subset of people. Personally I had no interest in 3.x and only the fact that someone FINALLY after 30 years managed to release a high quality set of D&D rules got to me. There are a LOT of us, and we're not that interested in playing musical editions. Forget it. It is nice to fantasize and think about what would be an even more perfected set of rules, but quite frankly the extent of bookshelf already dedicated to 4e pretty much says 'nope'. It plays well, and if you're just willing to use it in the way that makes it fun for you I think you'd find the same thing H-S.
I'm not promoting the "5E is on the immediate horizon" mindset. I hope you didn't gather that from my response. 4E does not do what I want it to do, and, as such, I play other games most of the time. I refuse to bend a system until it breaks to make it into the type of game I want. I will simply play another game. For those that do love it, though, I hope it sticks around a very long time. I see no immediate reason to think that 4E is going anywhere any time soon. There's still too much untapped potential in the system to toss it away this soon.
My point is, I really don't think campaign settings are enough to save an edition that might or might not be on life support. When they released Dark Sun, many were excited, myself included. I always loved Dark Sun, and was curious to see how it would fare under the 4E treatment. For those that didn't like 4E, though, they could have not cared less that Dark Sun was released, even if they truly loved that setting.
I don't think this is true. Paizo tells us what non Paizo products are selling in their top 10 list at the Paizo online store on a week by week basis. Now 4E material in general pretty much does not make the cut. Almost invariably its some Pathfinder supporting 3rd party product though on occasion some other companies product does break onto the list. Interestingly enough Darksun went straight to the top of their lists for two or three weeks. Other 4E products almost never do this...the obvious conclusion would seem to be that a lot of the PF fanbase that also plays 4E must have snagged it pretty quickly and likely a bunch of people who otherwise would not have touched a 4E product decided that 'this is the exception'. The fact that everyone and their brothers dog was saying the book is high fluff and phenominally well done probably helped.
Keep in mind that I said, "I really don't think campaign settings are enough to save an edition". Sure, some of them might sell well, but by your own words these are the exceptions. If on a week by week basis 4E doesn't even rank in the top 10, then a once-per-year campaign setting will NOT be enough to keep it afloat, even if those settings sell phenominally well. Naturally, I am leery of a 3rd party sight boasting sales figures of competitive companies, but that's neither here nor there. Much like auto insurance companies that will gladly tell you how much other companies are charging. Most of the time, their figures are not true, as one simple phone call will prove.
My point is, I really don't think campaign settings are enough to save an edition that might or might not be on life support. When they released Dark Sun, many were excited, myself included. I always loved Dark Sun, and was curious to see how it would fare under the 4E treatment. For those that didn't like 4E, though, they could have not cared less that Dark Sun was released, even if they truly loved that setting.
I don't think this is true. Paizo tells us what non Paizo products are selling in their top 10 list at the Paizo online store on a week by week basis. Now 4E material in general pretty much does not make the cut. Almost invariably its some Pathfinder supporting 3rd party product though on occasion some other companies product does break onto the list. Interestingly enough Darksun went straight to the top of their lists for two or three weeks. Other 4E products almost never do this...the obvious conclusion would seem to be that a lot of the PF fanbase that also plays 4E must have snagged it pretty quickly and likely a bunch of people who otherwise would not have touched a 4E product decided that 'this is the exception'. The fact that everyone and their brothers dog was saying the book is high fluff and phenominally well done probably helped.
Keep in mind that I said, "I really don't think campaign settings are enough to save an edition". Sure, some of them might sell well, but by your own words these are the exceptions. If on a week by week basis 4E doesn't even rank in the top 10, then a once-per-year campaign setting will NOT be enough to keep it afloat, even if those settings sell phenominally well.
Not enough on its own to keep an edition afloat but it certianly helps if you occasionally put out a product that appears to grab sales way beyond your core market.
In fact, I don't believe we'll see 5e for another five or so years, if not longer.
Exactly, and it will be five years or so before we'll see the fruits of Hasboro getting the right back too. That was exactly my point
In fact, I don't believe we'll see 5e for another five or so years, if not longer.
Exactly, and it will be five years or so before we'll see the fruits of Hasboro getting the right back too. That was exactly my point
I seriously doubt Wizards will drag 4th edition out for another 5 years. Look at their release schedule and ask yourself this. Could you actually see Wizards having a release schedule like this for another 5 years? They would lose customers like a bomb threat in a crowd.
I seriously doubt Wizards will drag 4th edition out for another 5 years. Look at their release schedule and ask yourself this. Could you actually see Wizards having a release schedule like this for another 5 years? They would lose customers like a bomb threat in a crowd.
LOL. So that equates to 5E? Or merely that they will simply add more to the 4E release schedule when they are in a better position to?
The primary and possibly sole argument for 5E being on the horizon is "I hate 4E, so it must be true".
I am inclined to believe this to a degree. Of course, those that hate 4E can always point to the recent past of 4E's release schedule as "proof" that something is in the works. Delayed releases, cancelled releases, and so on.
I seriously doubt Wizards will drag 4th edition out for another 5 years. Look at their release schedule and ask yourself this. Could you actually see Wizards having a release schedule like this for another 5 years? They would lose customers like a bomb threat in a crowd.
Hmm...looks like I was right. It's the first (and usually only) thing the 4E hater will point at when talking about the possibility of a 5E. Good example. Thanks, Xun.
April -- Heroes of Shadow.
May -- The Shadowfell: Gloomwrought and Beyond
June -- Monster Vault: Threats to Nentir Vale
August -- Neverwinter Campaign Setting
That's basically one major book a month since winter, not counting other products like boardgames and tile sets. They missed July (though I guess a new set of Fortune Cards did come out there?) And for the rest of the year we have...
September -- Mordenkainen's Magnificent Emporium
October -- Madness of Gardmere Abbey
November -- Heroes of the Feywild
December -- Book of Vile Darkness
And I think Heroes of the Elements is out in February 2012? With Heroes of the Plane Below somewhere after that?
The primary and possibly sole argument for 5E being on the horizon is "I hate 4E, so it must be true".
No, the primary arguments of 5e being on the horizon are that:
1) D&D editions have an average lifespan (not counting the Original/BECMI/Compendium versions) of about 10 years.
AD&D 1e - '78-'89 = 11 years
AD&D2e - '89-2k = 11 years
3/3.5 - 2k-'08 = 8 years
4e/Essentials - '08-?
2) Virtually ALL games - even ones as essentially unchanging as the Battle-Tech minis game - go through multiple editions.
So no matter what my opinion of 4e is, experience tells me to look for a new ediotion of this game around 2016-2018.
If anything, I would think that as a product matures through new editions, the edition cycle would get longer and longer. If 4E was an improvement over 3E and 3E was an improvement over 2E and 2E was an improvement over 1E, there are fewer and fewer improvements you can make to the system. (Of course, this thinking is only valid if you agree that each edition is an improvement.)
The primary and possibly sole argument for 5E being on the horizon is "I hate 4E, so it must be true".
No, the primary arguments of 5e being on the horizon are that:
1) D&D editions have an average lifespan (not counting the Original/BECMI/Compendium versions) of about 10 years.
AD&D 1e - '78-'89 = 11 years
AD&D2e - '89-2k = 11 years
3/3.5 - 2k-'08 = 8 years
4e/Essentials - '08-?
2) Virtually ALL games - even ones as essentially unchanging as the Battle-Tech minis game - go through multiple editions.
So no matter what my opinion of 4e is, experience tells me to look for a new ediotion of this game around 2016-2018.
You should probably look for it sooner.
Combining 3.0 & 3.5 is in many respects correct, but they were both "put the old books in a box and buy new ones" events. So instead of an 8 year span, there are two spans of 3 & 5. & while 1e & 2e technically lasted about 11 years, both featured rule changes sufficient to qualify as campaign restarters. In the days of 3.0, many were assuming 4.0 was coming out in 2005, and when 3.5 came out, correctly predicted the date would be 2008. So a date of 2013 is highly possible. Now those who deem Essentials a 4.5 can make a date of 2016. But whereas 3.5 was a big success, Essentials seems to have been rather a dud [and it wasn't a big enough change to warrant the 4.5 label]. So 2013 is definitely still on the table, tho I am going for 2014 myself.
While nobody here has the actual knowledge [or at least can give us solid assurance without risking his job], the general assumption is that D&D editions have a big spike in sales in year one and declining sales thereafter. That too puts heavy pressure on the length of an edition. And when it is felt that 4e PH4 would not make much if any profit, it is time to think about 5e PH.
And no, it is not just haters of 4e that are predicting 5e. Anyone with a little history can see that 2012 may see the announcement of 5e.
There's enough present material to see people through to 2013, roughly. That's just the stuff we know about. By then we might be seeing re-prints and updated versions of the old material because it will be a few years old by then. Which means another year of material, maybe two.
When people talk about the declining lifespan of editions, they don't account for the fact that 3e lasted only 4 years and then got rebooted. Thing is, 4e is so flexable it doesn't need a reboot. It can largely be improved on by reprinting and errata. If we see something sparkly and new it will likely include a rebalanced twin strike and a few other changes.
There's so much that can be done with the existing model I really don't see the point of a new addition and i'm sure WoTC are intelligent enough to figure out how to incoporate change an improvements without invalidating anything.
The ony reason they'd bother with a 4.5 is just to clean the slate and say - just use this now for your 4e stuff. There are so few issues with 4e as a core system, it can be made to do what people want. With all this talk from Mearls on modules, I wouldn't be surprised if we had almost a half-decade of optional side stuff and components to bolt onto 4e to make it whatever you want.
Why 5e next? What happened to 4.5e?
There's enough present material to see people through to 2013, roughly. That's just the stuff we know about. By then we might be seeing re-prints and updated versions of the old material because it will be a few years old by then. Which means another year of material, maybe two.
When people talk about the declining lifespan of editions, they don't account for the fact that 3e lasted only 4 years and then got rebooted. Thing is, 4e is so flexable it doesn't need a reboot. It can largely be improved on by reprinting and errata. If we see something sparkly and new it will likely include a rebalanced twin strike and a few other changes.
There's so much that can be done with the existing model I really don't see the point of a new addition and i'm sure WoTC are intelligent enough to figure out how to incoporate change an improvements without invalidating anything.
The ony reason they'd bother with a 4.5 is just to clean the slate and say - just use this now for your 4e stuff. There are so few issues with 4e as a core system, it can be made to do what people want. With all this talk from Mearls on modules, I wouldn't be surprised if we had almost a half-decade of optional side stuff and components to bolt onto 4e to make it whatever you want.
Good post. I'd take it one step further. I think Essentials was the "clean slate" you talked about. They didn't call it 4.5 because the mechanics didn't change and WOTC didn't want to invalidate any earlier 4E material. But Essentials really is a re-launch of 4E. I don't think they will reprint anything pre-Essentials.
1e & 2e technically lasted about 11 years, both featured rule changes sufficient to qualify as campaign restarters.
First, what rules change did 1e go through? Unearthed Arcana? That added more options, and is no different than, say, 4e's Players Handbook 3 introducing Psionic Classes.
Second, what rules changes did 2e go through? The Players option Books? That was in 1995 and 2e had been out for six years by then, and lasted only about a year and a half more. The Option books gave 2e about as much additional llife as reprinting the corebooks when 3.5 came out did.
No, the problem with measuring prior edition duration is the fact that, for AD&D, TSR basically stopped publishing both editions and then did almost nothing for several years. After Gygax left in 1985, Lorraine Williams slowed down AD&D's production schedule. With 1e, after the Wilderness Survival Guide in early 1986, there were no more rulebooks. 1e really lasted from December 1978 to March 1986 (seven years, three months).
2e was released in August 1989. It stopped publishing with "Of Ships and the Sea" in September 1997. Eight years, one month.
3e was released in August 2000 and stops publishing in December 2007 with Elder Evils. Seven years, four months. Personally, I think 3.5 helped them extend that an extra year.
That's an average of 7 years, 7 months.
4e is released May 2008. I would hope to see the last 4e rulebook in December 2015 (7 years, 7 months), and a 5e announcement at GenCon 2015.
1e & 2e technically lasted about 11 years, both featured rule changes sufficient to qualify as campaign restarters.
First, what rules change did 1e go through? Unearthed Arcana? That added more options, and is no different than, say, 4e's Players Handbook 3 introducing Psionic Classes.
Second, what rules changes did 2e go through? The Players option Books? That was in 1995 and 2e had been out for eight years by then.
No, the problem with measuring prior edition duration is the fact that, for AD&D, TSR basically stopped publishing both editions and then did almost nothing for several years. After Gygax left in 1985, Lorraine Williams slowed down AD&D's production schedule. With 1e, after the Wilderness Survival Guide in early 1986, there were no more rulebooks. 1e really lasted from December 1978 to March 1986 (eight years, three months).
2e was released in August 1989. It stopped publishing with "Of Ships and the Sea" in September 1997. Eight years, one month.
3e was released in August 2000 and stops publishing in December 2007 with Elder Evils. Seven years, four months. Personally, I think 3.5 helped them extend that an extra year.
4e is released June 2008. I would hope to see the last 4e rulebook in December 2015, and a 5e announcement at GenCon 2015.
Yeah, that about sums it up.
I'd add too that in fact settings and modules CLEARLY DO add to the lifespan of an edition. TSR continued to put these out regardless of core rules, though the whole enterprise kind of started to grind to a halt after 97.
Why hasn't anybody who said that manned up and said, "I was wrong, sorry."?
Anybody else remember the cries of, "5th Edition will be announced at GenCon"?
Why hasn't anybody who said that manned up and said, "I was wrong, sorry."?
You must be new here.
It's like that guy who predicted the Rapture. "Oh, what I MEANT to say was ..."
Did they say which GenCon?
You clever dog, you.......
Anybody else remember the cries of, "5th Edition will be announced at GenCon"?
Why hasn't anybody who said that manned up and said, "I was wrong, sorry."?
It's like that guy who predicted the Rapture. "Oh, what I MEANT to say was ..."
Kinda what I'm getting at.
Anybody else remember the cries of, "5th Edition will be announced at GenCon"?
Why hasn't anybody who said that manned up and said, "I was wrong, sorry."?
Because I'm not wrong? It's coming, the rumors are the announcement was cancelled at the last minute.
Anybody else remember the cries of, "5th Edition will be announced at GenCon"?
Why hasn't anybody who said that manned up and said, "I was wrong, sorry."?
Because I'm not wrong? It's coming, the rumors are the announcement was cancelled at the last minute.
I heard that same rumor. It more or less said that the announcement will be delayed until 2017 which is the tentative timeframe for which they might think about starting to come up with some ideas for possibly doing something related to a thing that might or might not be called fifth edition, but maybe not, no promises. I pulled that from an insider I know named M. Yass.
Bleed true diehard WotC fans. Your iron will is like the hand of god, with fire ants tearing into your flesh, that holds 4.5 together. Without your stalwart forum defense 4th would be so much less. Your smashing of the word Paizo and Pathfinder has broken the hearts of 4th haters. They. Owe. It. All. To. You. And. Your. Denial. Or not.
Applesauce...
Well, maybe. It'd be silly to pretend we know anything in certainty about business moves of a tight-lipped company.
The primary and possibly sole argument for 5E being on the horizon is "I hate 4E, so it must be true".
I am inclined to believe this to a degree. Of course, those that hate 4E can always point to the recent past of 4E's release schedule as "proof" that something is in the works. Delayed releases, cancelled releases, and so on. Of course 5E is on the horizon. How far away that horizon is...well...if anyone truly knows, they're not talking. Everything else is speculation at best, and common nay-saying at worst.
I'm a 4e lover who sees 5e ed in less than 5 years. Mike Mearls' ideas within his recent articles are radically different approaches to what is used in 4e, that it makes me speculate that people in WotC are thinking about a new edition. At the very least Mike Mearls is thinking long an hard about new approaches to bringing the D&D experience to the game table. I don't have to be a 4e hater to think that 5e may be in development. just check out Mike Mearls' recent articles, there is a lot of discussions of radically new approaches to the current 4e system going on between the developers.
Meh I just bought all the 4e stuff and I've much more to buy - I'd like to see a full level 1 to 30 campaign setting in the Forgotten Realms.
The adventures/modules is what saves a DM time - and the more time the DM has the more likely a new group can start up - which means more people buying the latest 4e stuff.
No 5e please.
I have play DnD since I was16. Been the DM the whole time. I have loved ever edtions they have released. When they first released that 4e was coming my group and got all happy. Till we read the book. We all said the some thing. "Where is the rest of the rules?" The best book they have to date is the DMG. They made changes so it was easier to DM a game. Made it faster to Put encounters together, hand out ,loot,and the like. But the system is flawed. Small creatures got hammered in 4e. Encounters average 45 minutes to a hour and a half. I had a boss fight go 2.5 before. When my players shouldn't have to wait r month for oPtions that should have been in the first books. The goal of 4e was to keep the main fan base and gain new fans and all I see is them losing the old fans. You can type on here all day how I'm a flame head. I don't care. The rules have under gone changes aboit half way through their life. So that puts some change in 2012. The company will sit down and look at what they need to fix in 4e to make it really good gaming and whjat to keep. (He they will look at the cost of those changes and if it is to much cost with not enough sells to make up for it then will will get 5e. If they project enough sells then we will see 4.5e. As long as they stop say eveything is fine with 4e and fix it then I will buy ether 1. Just tired of everyone overlooking the bad parts just for the sake of liking it or in the case of the company money. If they don'nt do something soon they will lose more and more people to other rpgs and MMOs where they get a whole game to play for cheaPer then buying a new book every 2 weeks.
I think the real issue is that the fan base has already split. Most of the people still around really like 4E at least in comparison to previous editions...otherwise they would be playing those previous editions. In particular many, many, fans that liked 3.5 better have already left for Pathfinder.
The problem comes about if they then try and revert. Is there any particular reason to think the fans that left for Pathfinder would return? I'm doubtful. Paizo works there ass off in terms of customer service so its unlikely that a WotC reboot to the look and feel of 3.5 would net them any meaningful number of lapsed 3.5 fans.
On the other hand it does appear that some significant number (call it half for arguments sake) the fan base really liked the more narrative style direction that the game went with 4E. WotC may not be in a position to return all that many of its lapsed fans but it probably would not have to work all that hard to alienate its 4E adherents. One catch is it'd be very easy to create a 4E clone using the OGL - you cannot copyright mechanics - just IP like Mind Flayers.
In effect if/when WotC moves on from 4E it is probable that some fans and maybe even some smaller companies will move into that market and 'keep the game alive' using the OGL to create a 4E clone. Unless 5E is really good at winning the current 4E fanbase over they risk simply fracturing their fanbase even more.
In regards to this thread. One of the posters commented that 2nd lasted 7 years and some months, until 1997. Yes - but 3rd did not come into existence for another 3 years in 2000 so the D&D fanbase had something closer to 11 years with 2nd...and when 3rd came out they ate it up, almost certainly because the fans where bored with 2nd and really excited by something new. That 3rd was a good game was important too but I think most of us are pretty clear at this point that it was not that massive an improvement over 2nd - a lot of the time it was a 2 steps forward 1 step back type of thing.
In effect WotC could go earlier and probably make more money faster...but letting an edition really play out is more likely to let them keep their fan base intact.
Mearls, don't do it.
Seriously, just give us more adventure modules - lots of 'em and also....
Ravenloft and Dragonlance Settings (Krynn).
4E Mechanics are rock solid, let's keep it that way.
I mean really, is this TOO MUCH to ask?
So, I was inspired by a snippet of another thread about how Hasbro has the rights to D&D video games again (thank Pelor), and part of the discussion turned to "too bad, 5e will be out before a game comes out."
This got me thinking about a few things, and honestly, I don't believe that will be the case. In fact, I don't believe we'll see 5e for another five or so years, if not longer. Instead of hijacking that thread, I thought I'd start my own.
Point 1: The Loss of Investment.Show
So one thing that is different for 4e compared to anything before it is the fact that WotC put some HEAVY investment in DDI/digital content, specifically the Character Builder, Compendium, etc.
So, you have all this programming you've paid for, and which is a rich tool, and is (now) web-based.
On top of that, they're still updating/correcting things.
Now, granted, they might be able to take the 4e compendium and recycle most of the programming for a 5e compendium, but, to be honest, it's likely to be more cost-effective to just... well, continue what they are doing, and update what they have instead of making something brand-new or mostly-new.
For instance, I used to be a DDI subscriber, but now the new content is not worth it to me. The only thing I would pay for is the character builder, and I would mostly use the old stuff from it. I am pretty sure there are others like me.
I can't really see the DDI as it currently stands being stable in the amount of subscriptions.
Once they dwindle to so low numbers that keeping the system up is no longer paying enough to create new content, the quality/amount of new content will dwindle even faster.
I'd think adding more tools would at least help them in this regard. A robust monster builder, adventure builder, campaign organizer and ways to modify the character builder to include house rules might not entice every lapsed DDI user but it'd probably bring some more people on board and would almost certianly do a pretty good job of keeping DMs subscribing.
It also dawns on me that it'd be a powerful marketing tool. They could data mine adventure builders and campaign builders to see how we play the game. Make the character builder usuable for house rules and they could data mine that to see what kinds of classes we probably want - if lots of people start house ruling in guns then releasing an official gun toting class makes a lot of sense.
If they created these tools and then made 'Unearthed Arcana's' full of optional rules that the systems supported they'd be able to learn how we like to play the game and release more support for whatever looks to be the favourite etc.
3) 5e will come as a boost if DDI sub amount decrease under a critical limit.
Like I said before, you should not assume DDI subs keep up their numbers steadily. You need some kind of system resets to get completely new people in, who are more likely to become new DDI subs, and essentials was partly such a reset. You can't do that kind of reset too many times with the same edition.
I'm not really sure why you can't do partial reboots with updated material every so often in the same edition. I certianly see downsides to the idea but they seem to be the same sort of downsides one gets with a whole new edition in any case and a whole new edition has the larger danger of angering signifcant portions of the fan base.
The rift between Paizo and WotC, both D&D, needs to be mended and ended.
Agreed, Paizo should stop making Pathfinder and create their own fantasy RPG to end this rift. WoTC can start the process by revoking Paizo's OGL rights, putting D&D back where it belongs but Paizo could speed up the process by showing some class and terminating the Pathfinder line, which only divides the community.
Please, WoTC, do the right thing - stop competing with yourself and take 3e out of the OGL realm. For the sake of the community.
Because I'm not wrong? It's coming, the rumors are the announcement was cancelled at the last minute.
Because I'm not wrong? It's coming, the rumors are the announcement was cancelled at the last minute.
The person who started that rumor, Morrus of EnWorld, has speculated that the cancelled announcement he heard about did not concern 5e, but that he or his "source" misunderstood that. Morrus is the only person who claims to have had heard that info from a reliable source.
So if Morrus thinks it wasn't about 5e, and he's the only one who started this, I think we can put to bed the idea that there was a cancelled 5e announcement.
Chances are the cancelled announcement, if there was one, would be the announcement that Hasbro and Atari resolved their videogames dispute. Such an announcement was probably cancelled because the lawyers hadn't vetted the language or the settlement hadn't been finalized.
Anybody else remember the cries of, "5th Edition will be announced at GenCon"?
Why hasn't anybody who said that manned up and said, "I was wrong, sorry."?
I was one of those guys and I was wrong. But, I still believe 5th edition will be here soon.
I seriously doubt Wizards will drag 4th edition out for another 5 years. Look at their release schedule and ask yourself this. Could you actually see Wizards having a release schedule like this for another 5 years? They would lose customers like a bomb threat in a crowd.
LOL. So that equates to 5E? Or merely that they will simply add more to the 4E release schedule when they are in a better position to?
Who says that they are in a better position to? Who will have confidence enough to wait that long? There are lots of people out there who are tired of waiting for Wizards to put out the material that they want.
Who says that they are in a better position to? Who will have confidence enough to wait that long? There are lots of people out there who are tired of waiting for Wizards to put out the material that they want.
And there are lots of people that are fine with the direction everything is going with 4E. Your point proves nothing other than people have opinions.
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Wyvern
If only to see if they can actually make a decent system.
People should note that not all 3.5 players play PF, they may use the odd compatible product but they don't bother with PF because they've already made up their own houserules and don't need paizos.
Whatever us supposedly missing or lacking from 4e can be achieved with the core rules. As I said before, there's no need for a 5e and there won't be for a long time.
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I'd like to see paizo make pathfinder 2 and make it there own thing and make it what they want and the way they want and just absorb the PF crowd into their own game. If only to see if they can actually make a decent system. People should note that not all 3.5 players play PF, they may use the odd compatible product but they don't bother with PF because they've already made up their own houserules and don't need paizos. Whatever us supposedly missing or lacking from 4e can be achieved with the core rules. As I said before, there's no need for a 5e and there won't be for a long time.
Most agreed.
The simple thing is that release schedules have less books per year, and more books that have a narrower application for the playerbase. Less people feel like they *must* have the heroes of shadow, than they'd feel the need to get the PHB1 or PHB2 of a new edition. You can't just fix that by making more stuff up and publishing more, because a lot of the design space for 4e is already filled. You already could sense the death of 3e (as published by WotC) when the last books started to be really oddball stuff.
To reiterate: It does not matter what the perception of the fanbase is for the direction and condition of 4e if it does not sell more products (in volume) than a new edition would.
IF 5e never comes, I can still play 4e with the books I have, without even buying a single book that comes after. The only essentials product I have is Monster vault, and the only products I might buy is stuff that gives me more monsters in post MM3 format or more AEDU-format support for old classes - new classes I don't really need anymore.
If 5e comes, I would buy the PHB, DMG and MM for sure. That is already 3 books guaranteed to sell to my group as hardback "full price" books, and probably 3-4 PHBs more for the other players. Now, 4e might maybe sell 1-2 total more books to us in the coming 1-2 years by the looks of it. Looks grim. I am pretty sure that around 2/3 of the people who started with 4e are not buing the last books now - I admit it is a guess, but all we have is guesses unless someone can get the sales numbers of the last books. The red box and essentials maybe had a temporary boost, but can you see it keeping up?
You say you'd buy 3 core books of 5e if they came out? That would assume that those books offered you something 4e couldn't offer. I'd say 4e could offer many of those things, whatever they are (please don't bother saying what they are) using 4e.
So my point still stands, 5e would be pointless.
If a lot of people are happy with 5e or could be made happy with 4e, whats 5e going to bring.
You say you'd buy 3 core books of 5e if they came out? That would assume that those books offered you something 4e couldn't offer. I'd say 4e could offer many of those things, whatever they are (please don't bother saying what they are) using 4e.
So my point still stands, 5e would be pointless.
The point is, I have a steady job and decent income - I tend to buy stuff that interests me.
Now, in 4e, there is no more stuff that has my interest, and there probably won't be much in the future. WotC in my case would make more money by publishing a new system, which I would definitely try out in the form of the basic 3 books.
This does not mean 4e is bad in my view, it is just done to the point where more products are unnecessary, since most of the typical stuff (That actually is viable to publish) is already out. Sure, I can dream of WotC printing a complete new book with great options for all the old classes that were left short (seeker, runepriest, artificer etc.) but that is not likely.
I have nothing against 4e, but I would not be unhappy if a new edition showed up now - 4e is far from perfect even if it is the best system *at the moment* for my gaming. I could see if it is any good, and continue with 4e if it is not (and still not buy more 4e books).
Whether I continue with the new edition is up to the designers making a good job at it.