Post/Author/DateTime	Post
#1 obsid Jul 30, 2014 18:04:17	So I was thinking through the sleep rules (which allow only 2 hours of standing watch per 8 hour long rest).  This means that a 3 person group needs to spend 10 hours if they wish to keep watch during a long rest, and a 2 person group to spend 12 hours  (assuming no elfs).  With an elf a 3 person group can spend only 8, but a 2 person group would need to spend 10 unless they are both elves (in which case it is 8 hours).   So taking this into account with diffrent groups spending more or less time sleeping (and mix in short rest people as well at 1 hour) and trying to figure out what a good aproximation for chance of random encounter.  At first I thought just throw a d20 per hour and a 1 means a random monster, but this leads to a 30+ chance for a 4 person group per long rest which seems too high to me (but I guess it depends on the DM).    So assuming a 1d20 per 2 hours of rest and a 1 means "moster found them" (and then if there is a monster attack a 1d4 where 1-2 means first hour and 3-4 means second) that leads to a chance of random encounter on a long rest of: 4+ people: 18.5% (or 3 with an elf or two elves) 3 people:   22.6% (or 2 with an elf) 2 people:   26.5%   and a 2.5% on a short rest.   Does that seem about right for most random encounter chances?  You could cut this even further and go to 1d20 per 4 hours (and then a 1d4 to see which of the hours) that would lead to a: 4+ people: 9.8% (or 3 with an elf or two elves) 3 people:   12.3% (or 2 with an elf) 2 people:   14.3%   And a 1.3% on a short rest.   Which of these do you think is better?  Is about 20% chance of random encounter per long rest too high?
#2 iserith Jul 30, 2014 18:18:23	I do believe a long rest is 8 hours, straight up, including watches of no more than 2 hours per person.   For what it's worth, the playtest had random encounters occuring in the wilderness at these rates:   Sparsely Inhabited  20 Typical Region  18-20 Densely Inhabited  16-20   Over an 8-hour period, that amounted to 33.66%, 72.75%, and 89.99% chance of at least 1 encounter, respectively. However, the more civilized the area, the greater the chance that the random encounter was not a monster but rather some wandering tinkerer or whatever. So if you're building a table to roll on to see what result you get if a random encounter turns up, you might want to keep that in mind.   Given those numbers as a player, I would certainly prepare for these eventualities by getting to town for long rests or trying to engage in a challenge to find a secure spot to avoid random encounter checks altogether. Such a challenge might be a series of complications to achieve the goal of a secure place to rest, tackled by actions and ability checks.
(Reply to #2) obsid	iserith wrote:
(Reply to #2) Overpromises	iserith wrote:
#5 iserith Jul 30, 2014 18:42:25	The wording doesn't seem to allow for multiple watches that exceed two hours total, so the math regarding 2- and 3-person parties stands to reason. This is potentially pretty dangerous when you run the numbers with the playtest values. For a 10-hour rest, the numbers go up to 40.13%, 80.31%, and 94.37%, respectively. For a 12-hour rest, it's 45.95%, 85.78%, and 96.86%, respectively. And that's for at least 1 encounter - more than one encounter won't be uncommon. Considering the lower amount of PCs to boot, long resting with small parties in dangerous areas is going to be quite a challenge.
#6 Noon Jul 30, 2014 20:29:18	It's getting a bit metagamey. If you at first thought it would be a 5% chance every hour, go with that.   Only start trying to adjust it once you've figured out what model of play do you want? How do you want play to turn out?
#7 Psikerlord Jul 31, 2014 0:19:23	I dont think you even roll every hour. In the starter set, you roll once during the day, and once at night. So youre pretty safe if thats standard.
#8 lawrencehoy Jul 31, 2014 1:33:30	Not to mention that the Random Encounters tables in the playtests were for while the party was actively moving around. Staying in one place, while resting, wouldn't generate such frequent chances of encounters.   EDIT: Especailly Long Rests, which are (presumably) done during the idle periods of many creatures as well.
#9 iserith Jul 31, 2014 5:54:18	lawrencehoy wrote: